Microsoft is the second largest company in the world with a market cap of just under $3 trillion at the time of writing. The tech giant has achieved this position thanks to its solid presence in multiple applications, such as cloud computing, its popular Windows operating system, and workplace collaboration tools.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has proven to be another solid growth driver for Microsoft lately, helping to accelerate the company’s growth in recent quarters. However, Microsoft isn’t the only tech giant using AI as a springboard to boost its growth. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) And Meta platforms (NASDAQ: META) also benefit from the increasing adoption of AI in their sector.
Let’s take a closer look at Nvidia and Meta Platforms’ prospects for the next decade to find out why they could surpass Microsoft’s market cap in the long run.
1. Nvidia
Nvidia is currently the third-largest company in the world after Microsoft with a market cap of $2.56 trillion. The semiconductor specialist has seen a notable increase in value since late 2022, as it became clear that its data center graphics processing units (GPUs) will play a central role in the spread of AI.
Microsoft partner OpenAI used Nvidia’s GPUs to train ChatGPT, its generative AI chatbot that exploded in popularity after its launch in late 2022. Since then, tech giants around the world have been lining up to buy Nvidia’s AI GPUs to train and deploy AI models, giving the chipmaker over 80% of the AI ​​chip market, leaving little for rivals like AMD.
Analyst John Vinh of KeyBanc Capital Markets estimates that Nvidia could generate as much as $200 billion in data center revenue next year, as demand for its next-generation Blackwell AI chips is reportedly stronger than expected. That would be a significant jump from the $47.5 billion in data center revenue Nvidia reported last year.
Meanwhile, consensus estimates suggest that Nvidia’s data center revenue could reach $140 billion next year, which would still be a significant jump from last year’s revenue from this segment. For comparison, AMD expects to sell $4.5 billion worth of data center GPUs this year, which tells us just how dominant Nvidia has been in this market.
Since Nvidia is releasing a new AI GPU every year, compared to its previous plan to refresh its lineup every two years, it could still have a solid share of the AI ​​chip market after 10 years. According to Future Market Insights, the total GPU market is expected to be worth $1.16 trillion by 2034. Nvidia’s strong position in this market positions it for robust growth over the next decade.
Additionally, analysts expect Nvidia’s earnings to grow 42% annually over the next five years, higher than the 13% annual earnings growth Microsoft is expected to deliver over the same period.
Nvidia’s massive end-market opportunity and dominant share suggests that it could continue to outpace Microsoft’s growth over the next five years, and possibly even the next decade. It wouldn’t be surprising, then, if Nvidia eventually overtakes Microsoft’s market cap in 10 years.
2. Meta-platforms
Meta Platforms is currently the seventh largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.25 trillion, which puts it quite a ways off from Microsoft. However, the impressive pace at which Meta has been growing recently thanks to the increasing adoption of its AI-powered advertising tools suggests that it could maintain a healthy growth pace over the next decade.
According to eMarketer, digital ad spending could grow 13.2% in 2024. Meta is on track to grow faster than the industry it operates in. The company’s revenue rose 24% to $75.5 billion in the first six months of the year. The $39.75 billion revenue forecast for the current quarter would translate to year-over-year growth of 16%, again ahead of the pace at which digital ad spending is expected to grow this year.
Meta’s ability to help advertisers achieve higher returns through AI-powered ad campaigns is helping the company attract more ad revenue. Management said during its recent earnings conference that U.S. advertisers saw a 22% increase in returns after adopting Meta’s AI-powered ad tools like Advantage+.
These AI tools enable advertisers using Meta’s offerings to improve audience targeting, drive incremental purchases from that audience, and reduce acquisition costs. Meta saw a 10% YoY increase in ad impressions delivered in Q2, along with a 10% improvement in average price per ad.
According to Prophecy Market Insights, the global digital advertising market is expected to be worth a whopping $1.76 trillion by 2034, up from an estimated $467 billion this year. Meta is expected to generate $161 billion in revenue by 2024, meaning it could end the year with a third of the digital advertising market under its control.
If the company continues to capture a larger share of this lucrative end-market opportunity over the long term, revenue could grow significantly in the future. Assuming Meta can increase its digital ad market share to 40% by 2034, revenue could reach as much as $704 billion. That would be more than four times the company’s expected revenue in 2024.
Given that the US technology sector has a price-to-sales ratio of 7, Meta could see a significant expansion of its market cap in the long run if it trades at that valuation. So Meta Platforms does indeed have the potential to become a bigger company than Microsoft in the next decade thanks to its growing influence in the digital advertising market.
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Randi Zuckerberg, former chief marketer and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long Jan 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short Jan 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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