The following is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo’s fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, You can subscribe here for free.
Hey, let’s take a look at the production of the consensus first-round picks in fantasy football drafts so far this year…
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Christian McCaffrey, IR, probably a doomed pick, will likely miss 6 weeks or more. Yuck.
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Tyreek Hill, WR17, is still a great player, but his quarterback is injured and there is no time to return.
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CeeDee Lamb, WR16, this guy’s team just got crushed by the Saints, but other than that we’re feeling fine.
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Breece Hall, RB6, picked up where he left off last season, though he may have a little Braelon Allen problem. Good draft pick.
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Bijan Robinson, RB16, his team has its flaws and his QB is a bit shaky, but he looks great. Nice pick. At some point a touchdown would be appreciated.
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Ja’Marr Chase, WR41, was targeted 11 times in two games, with his most impactful play being a personal foul for 15 yards.
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Justin Jefferson, WR4, everything was going so well until he suffered a quadriceps injury on Sunday.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR27, has had one great game and one disastrous game and is now battling a leg injury of unknown nature.
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Jonathan Taylor, RB23, runs well, but his QB is on the goalline back and the team doesn’t feel like throwing to him.
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AJ Brown, WR32, injured his hamstring in practice last week and was unavailable Monday night. He will likely miss Week 3.
*GASPING FOR BREATH*
That’s a minefield. Just a really terrible first round. Only one player with a top-10 ADP is currently a top-five scorer at his position, and that guy is struggling with an injury. Ugh.
Drafters can rightly feel good about CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson — who looks like the best player on the court every time he plays — and we should consider Ja’Marr Chase a screaming buy-low. And if Justin Jefferson actually managed to avoid a serious injury, he’s a winner, too.
But the rest of that lap is, uh… woof. It’s rough.
Of course, in a season without a clear first-round golden ticket, we’re all in a slightly different version of the same messy boat. It could very well mean that 2024 is shaping up to be a season dominated by sleepers and sneaky waiver gems. If that’s the case, it’s going to be a big year for the truly obsessive hardcore players among us.
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Now let’s take a look at what does work…
Every fantasy season is strange and wild and unprecedented in its own way. We’re in a year where there were no clear right answers in the first round, which is not the normal way things work. Even with the chaos, we have to play with the cards we’re dealt.
Let’s take a look at the unexpected names currently topping the leaderboard at the big three positions, along with a figure that explains and supports their success:
QB1, Baker Mayfield: 73.5 Completion Percentage — Baker has simply acted. He opened the season with a 24-of-30 performance against Washington, and followed it up with a 12-of-19 effort in Detroit, a game where he was consistently harassed. Through two games, this is the best version of Mayfield we’ve seen. He’s never completed 65 percent of his attempts in a season, but he can’t miss these days.
Of course, completion percentage doesn’t tell the whole story about a QB’s accuracy. Here’s another stat that helps tell the story of Mayfield’s first two games: 7.7 yards after catch per completion. When a quarterback is above average in accuracy with his ball placement, YAC usually follows. Mayfield currently beats his previous season record in YAC per completion by two full yards. He’s been truly amazing.
RB1, Alvin Kamara: 6 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line — Kamara currently leads the NFL in touchdowns (5), four of which have come from inside 12 yards. He shares the league lead in carries inside the 10-yard line and is second in carries inside the 5 (4). Taysom Hill, it should be noted, has yet to receive a single carry in the red zone. For the first time in a while, the Saints are simply feeding the team’s best ball carrier in goal-to-go situations, and — surprise! — it’s working spectacularly.
WR1, Chris Godwin: 58.2 Slot Percentage — Godwin ran 78.3% of his routes from the slot in Detroit, according to PFF, and it was clearly a winning approach. In his best seasons, he served as Tampa Bay’s primary slot receiver, but last year he was pushed out and finished as the WR33 overall. It’s no coincidence that he’s once again finding success in a familiar role. The Bucs also provided a compelling illustration that slot routes don’t have to be short-yardage chain movers — big plays are possible.
