Diontae Johnson’s time in Carolina turned out to be nothing more than a stopover on the way to playing with an AFC contender. Just months after being traded from the Steelers to the Panthers, Johnson returns to the AFC North in a fifth- and sixth-round pick swap with the Baltimore Ravens. That’s an extremely cheap deal for a Ravens team that ranks second in both EPA per game and success rate.
No one can blame a team as good as Baltimore for pushing their chips to the middle in an attempt to reach the top of the results bracket, but it’s not like they were hurting because of the impact pass catchers.
What Diontae Johnson has to offer the Ravens
Zay Flowers is having a strong sophomore season and they just started unleashing him on game-changing routes, minimizing some of the Mickey Mouse screen work the Ravens overdid in Weeks 1 and 2. Rashod Bateman is finally healthy and giving them steady play at the X receiver spot. He ranks fourth in the NFL in both EPA per target and percentage of catches required for a first down or touchdown, according to TruMedia. Mark Andrews’ season is stabilizing. He and Isaiah probably gave this team big moments at the tight end position.
The problem for all these guys is overall volume. None will consistently push for more than eight targets each week, both because of the surrounding pieces in the passing game and because of Baltimore’s commitment to its strong rushing attack. Adding Diontae Johnson to the mix creates an even tighter target squeeze.
There’s no doubt that Johnson brings a dimension to this team that none of the others offer. He is the best clean separator against the reporting of people and the press in the perimeter. The Ravens have seen Cover 1 ranked eighth this season, according to Fantasy Points Data, so you need one-on-one man beats on the outside. Bateman has nailed those looks this season, hence his per-catch efficiency, but Johnson gives them another proven body who can do it at high volume.
There’s almost no chance Johnson comes close to hitting his 27.1% route-per-route goal from Weeks 1 through 8 with the Panthers in Baltimore. He will also likely dig into Flowers’ target share of 27% and increase volatility in Bateman and Andrews’ weekly production.
This trade is a very good move for the Ravens offense and Johnson brings separation skills that any team, especially a playoff contender, can use. It’s just hard to make the math work.
What do we think of the Panthers’ remaining pass catchers?
As for Carolina, some interesting young pieces remain on offense, but it’s hard to imagine anyone making a run to fantasy glory. The offense ranks 31st in EPA per game; even the vaunted Andy Dalton era, which Johnson helped support, came to an end. At this point, the Panthers are probably on the verge of turning back Bryce Young, just to see if he is something to mine from the young passerby. Either way, rookie receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker are the names to know.
Legette was and is a project receiver, but I love the way the Panthers used him. They didn’t ask him to win at X receiver on vertical routes just because he’s big and fast. Instead, they moved him off the line and let him run over-the-middle routes that best suit his current skill level. That’s good coaching.
Fellow rookie Coker is an undrafted free agent who I have been very impressed with on film. He is an advanced technician with a good sense of zone coverage. Coker has taken 70.5% of his snaps from the slot this season and has earned playing time. Maybe Adam Thielen will come back and take over the job, but with Carolina clearly looking to the future and not worried about 2024 results, that doesn’t make sense. Especially not because Coker gives them good reputations.
Elsewhere on the roster, veteran receiver David Moore, who is familiar with Seattle and Tampa Bay’s Dave Canales, stepped into Johnson’s vacated X-receiver role last week and led the team on routes. He’s not a target scorer, so he’ll only open drafts for Legette and Coker. Former second-rounder Jonathan Mingo is falling down the depth chart and his skillset overlaps too much with those of the 2024 rookies.
The Panthers’ passing offense seems incapable of providing the soil needed to grow good fruit. However, those names are good to know in case something changes drastically.
