It may have felt like it would never happen, but the day is here. After months of anxious uncertainty and a seemingly endless series of history-making events, the US presidential race is (finally) coming to an end.
Americans – along with so many people around the world – are gathering around their televisions and phone screens to hear who will become the next President of the United States: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
Although Harris and Trump have presented fundamentally different visions of the future of the US and its role on the world stage, the race has remained neck and neck since Joe Biden shocked the country by abandoning his re-election bid in July.
Related: US election results 2024 live: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris battle for president
The results begin pouring in Tuesday evening, giving the country its first clues as to which party will control not only the White House but also Congress. Here’s an hour-by-hour guide on how to watch election night like an expert:
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6:00 PM ET (3:00 PM PT, 11:00 PM GMT, 10:00 AM AEDT): polling stations are starting to close
The first polls close at 6:00 PM ET in eastern Kentucky and much of Indiana. Expectations for Democrats in the two Republican-leaning states are low: Trump is almost guaranteed to win both, and Republicans are also expected to easily hold the most House of Representatives seats in the two states.
Latest: Trump wins the red states of Kentucky and Indiana
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7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT, Midnight GMT, 11:00 AM AEDT): polling stations are completely closed in six states, including Georgia
Americans will get their first clues about the outcome of the presidential race at 7 p.m. ET, when polls close in the battleground state of Georgia. Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020, after Trump won the state by 5 points four years earlier. This year, Trump appears to have a slight advantage over Harris in the Peach State, according to the Guardian’s polling tracker, but a strong night for Democrats could put Georgia back in their win column.
As Georgia begins counting ballots, polls are also closing in Virginia, where both parties hope to flip a seat in the House of Representatives. Republicans are looking to expand their narrow majority in the House of Representatives, and results in Virginia’s second and seventh congressional districts could provide an early indication of the party’s success.
And the early results from Florida — where most, but not all, polls close at 7 p.m. — could also offer revealing hints. Florida is particularly efficient at counting ballots, so the early results will be one of the first big tests of the evening. In addition to Harris’ long-awaited hopes of flipping a state that Trump won twice, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell wants to dethrone Republican Sen. Rick Scott, who has maintained a poll lead in the race. A victory for Mucarsel-Powell in Florida could allow Democrats to retain their majority in the Senate.
Latest: Trump triumphs in Florida
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7:30 PM ET (4:30 PM PT, 12:30 PM GMT, 11:30 AM AEDT): Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
Trump won North Carolina by one point in 2020 and three points in 2016, and a loss in this battleground state could doom the former president. Democrats also expect a victory in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, given recent revelations about Republican Mark Robinson’s disturbing internet activities.
Meanwhile, the results in Ohio and West Virginia could determine control of the Senate. Republicans are expected to gain a seat in West Virginia, where independent Senator Joe Manchin decided not to seek re-election; and Democratic incumbent President Sherrod Brown faces a tough race in Ohio. If Republicans win both races, it would erase Democrats’ current 51-49 advantage in the Senate.
Latest: Trump wins West Virginia
Latest: Trump wins Ohio
Latest: Trump wins North Carolina
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8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT, 1:00 AM GMT, 12:00 PM AEDT): Polling places completely closed in 16 states, including Pennsylvania
This will be a pivotal moment in the presidential race. Whoever wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes will have a much better chance of winning the White House, a fact both nominees acknowledged as they took aim at the battleground state in recent weeks.
Pennsylvania will also play host to some of the most competitive congressional races in the country. If it’s a good night for Republicans, they could flip the seat of incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who is running against former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick.
But if Democrats have a particularly strong night, they can turn their eyes to Florida, where the last polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Most polls will also close at 8 PM ET in Michigan, but voting in a handful of counties that observe central time will keep polls open for another hour.
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8:30 PM ET (5:30 PM PT, 1:30 AM GMT, 12:30 PM AEDT): Polls close in Arkansas
There won’t be much tension in Arkansas as Trump is expected to easily win the solidly Republican state. Arkansas has the distinction of being the only state where polls close at 8:30 PM ET, but most Americans’ attention at this point in the night will be focused on the results trickling in from the battleground states.
Latest: Trump wins Arkansas
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9:00 PM ET (6:00 PM PT, 2:00 AM GMT, 1:00 PM AEDT): Polling places completely closed in 15 states, including Michigan and Wisconsin
This will be the do-or-die moment for Harris. In 2016, Trump’s ability to score narrow victories in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin sent him to the White House, but Biden won all three battleground states four years later.
Harris’ most likely path to 270 electoral votes this year runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, so Trump could secure a second term if he can knock off even one of those states.
Michigan and Wisconsin will also play a potentially decisive role in the battle for Congress. Democrats currently hold two Senate seats in the states up for grabs this year, and Republican victories in both races could give them a majority. Michigan’s seventh congressional district, which became an open seat after Elissa Slotkin chose to run for Senate rather than seek reelection, has been described as “the most competitive open seat in the country.”
In New York, where polls also close at 9 p.m. ET, Democrats have the opportunity to flip some seats in the House of Representatives that Republicans won in 2022. If they succeed, this could give Democrats a majority in the House of Representatives. And after a much better-than-expected showing in Iowa’s celebrated Selzer Poll, Democrats are hoping to flip two House seats in the Hawkeye State, where polls will also close.
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10pm ET (7pm PT, 3am GMT, 2pm AEDT): polling places completely closed in Nevada, Montana and Utah
Harris hopes to keep Nevada in her column as Democratic presidential candidates have won the state in every race since 2008. Trump previously led the polls in Nevada, but Harris closed that gap in the final weeks of the race.
At this point in the night, two more Senate races will also come to a close. In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen is favored to keep her seat, but the prospects of her fellow Democratic Senator Jon Tester appear bleak in Montana.
If Republicans don’t win a majority in the Senate by the time polls close in Montana, this could be the moment they officially take control of the Senate.
Latest: Trump wins Montana, Utah
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11:00 PM ET (8:00 PM PT, 4:00 AM GMT, 3:00 PM AEDT): Polling places completely closed in four states, including California
While Harris is all but assured of victory in her home state of California, the races in the House of Representatives have important implications for control of Congress. According to the Cook Political Report, five Republicans in the California House of Representatives are facing a count. The state thus represents the Democrats’ best chance to regain a majority in the House.
Latest: Harris wins California
Related:Where do Harris and Trump stand on the key election issues?
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12:00 PM ET (9:00 PM PT, 5:00 AM GMT, 4:00 PM AEDT): Polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska
By the time polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska, Americans should have a much better idea of ​​who will move into the White House in January. But if 2020 is any indication, the country may have to wait a little longer for a final call on who won the presidential race.
In 2020, the AP did not declare Biden the winner of the presidential election until November 7 at 11:26 a.m. ET — four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016, it took until 2:29 a.m. ET the morning after Election Day for Trump to be declared the winner.
Given how tight the race for the White House is expected to be, Americans may have to wait a long night — or even a week — to find out who their next president is.
Latest: Harris wins Hawaii
Read more about the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
