Determine your Week 15 lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key starting/sitting advice for each match on the list.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle has completely taken over as Dallas’ workhorse, seeing 66 of 76 RB touches over the past three games. He gets a Panthers defense that is allowing 5.0 YPC and the most average rushing attempts (27.8), rushing yards (138.6), touchdowns (1.4) and fantasy points for running backs this season. The game script should remain manageable against the Panthers, so Dowdle is borderline top-15 this week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
Sits: Nick Chubb
Chubb has three touchdowns in the last three games, but he hasn’t seen a single red zone carry in the last two weeks. Chubb saw just 38% of snaps and 12 of 26 RB opportunities last week, and Jerome Ford has beaten him in two straight games. The Chiefs’ pass defense has taken a step back recently, but Kansas City has given up the fewest RB rushing yards per game (58.5) and fantasy points to running backs this season. Chubb has averaged just 1.4 goals and 3.1 YPC since returning from injury; he’s a bench candidate to start the fantasy playoffs.
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Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Start: Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa was the QB25 in fantasy points per game through the first ten weeks, but since then he has been the QB2 behind only Josh Allen through four games. The Dolphins rank second in neutral passing percentage (65.4%) and third in passing success rate above expectations (+9.6%), while Tagovailoa has averaged 325 passing yards and 2.8 TDs in that span . Sunday’s match looks set for a shootout, with teams both ranked in the top seven in neutral success rate over the past five weeks. The Texans have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, but the tenth most to QBs.
New York Jets @Jacksonville Jaguars
Start: Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas Jr. saw career highs in targets (12) and target share (40%) from Mac Jones last week. The rookie is somehow top-20 in yards per route despite shaky quarterback play, and BTJ gets a Jets defense that has ranked last in EPA/dropback since Week 9. New York also has an NFL-high catchable target of 81% allowed rate on passes of more than 10 air yards in the past month. Thomas Jr. almost had an epic performance two games ago, and he’s a top 25 WR this week.
Is Travis Etienne Jr.who played just 48% of snaps and lost 19 of 27 RB opportunities to Tank Bigsby last week. The Jets’ run defense has remained above average while their pass D has struggled.
Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints
Start: Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson Jr. should come out of the bye healthier, and he’ll see additional work with Austin Ekeler on IR. The Saints have allowed an NFL-high 5.4 YPC since Week 6 and rank 30th in EPA/rush and 31st in success rate during that span. Robinson Jr. has the seventh-highest YPC (4.9) recently, and he is on pace for 11 rushing touchdowns despite missing three games and being injured in several others. The Commanders are more than just touchdown favorites against a Saints team that starts Jake Heaner or Spencer Rattler at QB, so the game script should be very favorable. Robinson Jr. is in the top 15 this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Seat: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tracy Jr. set career highs last week in snap rate (83%), RB rush share (89%) and target share (21%). He’s a rising star who will certainly be worth targeting in the 2025 fantasy drafts, but Tracy Jr. has an uphill battle on Sunday. The Ravens have allowed an NFL-low 3.6 YPC and the second-fewest RB rushing yards per game (64.4). Plus, the Giants are 16-point underdogs with Tommy DeVito starting. New York has an implied team total (13.5 points!) that would require a microscope to find, so look for Tracy Jr. alternatives if possible.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Start: Calvin Ridley
Ridley has led the league in air yards since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, and the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to outside receivers this season. Ridley saw two targets inside the five-yard line last week as he continued to inch closer to much bigger plays. The volume should be back on Sunday as the Titans will likely be in a negative game script as underdogs against a surging Bengals offense.
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Start: Kyler Murray
Murray’s undoubtedly had an up and down fantasy season; he has posted four weekly top-five QB finishes and four bottom-10s. But he gets a favorable home game this week against a New England defense that ranks bottom in the league in pressure. The Cardinals have the third-highest team implied total this week (26.5 points) when Murray is a top-10 QB.
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Start: Bo Nix
Nix has quietly been the fantasy QB5 since Week 5 as he continues to improve and attack more downfield. Nix’s YPA has increased significantly (1.6 yards) versus zone coverage (h/t TruMedia), which the Colts have used at the league’s highest rate (80%). Denver has the sixth-highest PROE in the league over the past month, and this matchup should be fast with plenty of plays. Nix is ​​a top-10 QB coming off his bye.
Buffalo Bills@Detroit Lions
Start: Jared Goff
Goff has averaged three touchdown passes over his last four home games, and Buffalo’s offense should help generate more volume in a fast-paced matchup Sunday. The Bills have a solid, if not strong, pass defense, but Matthew Stafford torched them last week, and opposing quarterbacks have thrown for multiple TDs in four of the past five games against Buffalo — the other came in a blizzard where no passing took place. The Lions are expected to score a career-high 28.5 points this week, so Goff is worth entering a game with a whopping 54.5 points total.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Start: Rachaad White
White saw 80% of the snaps and 11-of-14 carries after Bucky Irving left last week’s game, finishing as fantasy’s RB4. The Buccaneers have used an inventive offense, often with two-back sets and designed targets for their RBs, so White is worth starting even in a tougher matchup on paper. He may again have to deal with a heavier workload. Irving sat out practice Thursday, so there’s a good chance he’ll be limited even if he can play. White is on the border of the top 20 this week.
Stone Smartt is a sleeper if you’re looking for a tight end. Will Dissly is out, Ladd McConkey remains limited at best and Smartt has an intriguing profile. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most targets (7.8) and receiving yards (70.5) to tight ends this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers @Philadelphia Eagles
Sits: Najee Harris
Harris’ rushing share dropped to 42% last week, while he also faced just 45.7% of running back opportunities. Jaylen Warren plays more on passing downs (Harris ran just seven routes last week) and Pittsburgh enters Sunday as 5.5-point underdogs. Harris was the RB17 in wins this season, but the RB39 in losses. The Eagles have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs (and the second-lowest EPA/rush), and the Steelers have one of the lowest implied team totals (18.5 points) in a slow game this week.
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Start: Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet replaced the injured Kenneth Walker last week and burst onto the scene in one of the biggest fantasy performances of the season. Charbonnet accounted for a whopping 47% of Seattle’s scrimmage yards and had the third-most yards after contact in any game this year. Walker missed Thursday’s practice and remains “day-to-day” with his calf injury. It doesn’t sound like a long-term concern, but Charbonnet expects to remain a key part of Seattle’s game plan on Sunday night, even if Walker returns (after missed practices).
The Packers have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the past five weeks, so Charbonnet should receive another nice game. This week he is back in the top 20.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Sits: D’André Swift
Swift set season highs in snap share (79%) and route share (68%) last week with Roschon Johnson out, though it didn’t translate into much fantasy production. Johnson could return this week, but Swift’s matchup is more concerning. The Vikings have yielded by far the lowest EPA/rush and third-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. The Bears have a modest implied total of 18.5 points and are touchdown underdogs; Swift was fantasy’s RB4 in wins this season, but he was the RB35 in losses.
Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders
Start: Darnell Mooney
Mooney has more receiving yards (and only one fewer TD) than Drake London this season. Mooney’s fantasy production has declined thanks to Kirk Cousins ​​having a 0:8 TD:INT ratio over the past four games, but that should change on Monday night. Cousins ​​has thrown 12 of his 15 picks against zone coverage this season, which the Raiders have used at the seventh-lowest rate in the league (h/t TruMedia).
Mooney’s target percentage and fantasy points per route both run against man coverage, and Las Vegas has been an extreme pass funnel over the past five weeks; the Raiders have allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs, but the second-most to wide receivers over that span. The Falcons have a healthy implied total of 24.5 points, so treat Mooney as a top-30 WR this week.
