An influx of outsiders and money turns Montana into a Republican, culminating in a victory in the Senate

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) – Democrats’ crushing loss in the nationally important U.S. Senate race in Montana has settled a fierce political debate over whether a wave of newcomers over the past decade has benefited Republicans – and whether a of newcomers could even hold a high position.

Voters answered both questions with an emphatic “yes,” with Tim Sheehy defeating three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, clinching a Republican majority in the Senate and exposing a dramatic cultural shift in a state that has long prided itself on candidates to choose from your own soil. based on personal qualifications, not party membership.

It’s the first time in nearly a century that one party has completely dominated in Montana. Corporations and mining barons known as the Copper Kings once had a corrupt stranglehold on state politics, and the antipathy toward outsiders that emerged from that era has faded, replaced by a partisan zeal that Republicans capitalized on during the election.

Tester, a moderate lawmaker and third-generation grain farmer from modest Big Sandy, Montana, lost to wealthy aerospace entrepreneur Sheehy, an ardent supporter of newly elected President Donald Trump who arrived in Montana a decade ago and bought a house in the upscale resort community of Grote Hemel.

“Montana’s political culture has fundamentally changed in the last 10 to 15 years,” said Jeff Wiltse, a professor of history at the University of Montana. “The us versus them, Montanans versus outsiders mentality that has a long history in Montana has weakened significantly.”

The state’s old instinct to choose its own party, regardless of party, gave way to larger trends that began more than a decade ago and accelerated during the pandemic.

Employment in mining, logging and railroading – once key Democratic constituencies – dried up. Newcomers, many drawn by the state’s natural social distancing, came in droves — with nearly 52,000 new arrivals since 2020. That’s nearly as many as the entire previous decade, according to U.S. Census data. As populations changed, national issues such as immigration and gender identity came to dominate political attention, diverting attention from local issues.

The 2024 Senate race brought a record flood of outside money on both sides — more than $315 million, much of it from shadowy groups with wealthy donors. That effectively ended Montana’s efforts for more than a century to limit corporate money in politics.

Sheehy’s victory came after the party led in recent elections in Montana, where voters installed other wealthy Republicans, including Gov. Greg Gianforte, U.S. Sen. Steve Daines and U.S. Rep.-elect Troy Downing.

Daines is the only one of the group who is originally from Montana — once a virtual requirement for obtaining high office in the state.

Apple flavored whiskey and champagne

The contrast between Montana’s old and new politics was on vivid display on election night. Tester’s party was a low-key affair at the Best Western Inn in Great Falls — rooms for $142 a night — where the lawmaker mingled with several dozen supporters and drank apple-flavored whiskey from a plastic cup.

Sheehy’s noisier affair took place in Bozeman – the epicenter of Montana’s new wealth – at a luxury hotel where a standard room costs $395. Long before his victory was announced, carts of champagne were rolled in as the candidate remained cooped up on a secure balcony with select supporters for most of the night.

Sheehy, a former US Navy SEAL from Minnesota, moved to Montana after leaving the military and, with his brother, founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company that relies on government contracts. Sheehy also bought a ranch in the Little Belt Mountains and cast himself during the campaign as the modern equivalent of an early Western settler seeking opportunity.

Tester received 22,000 more votes on November 5 than in his last election – a gain that exceeded his margin of victory in previous victories. But for every additional Tester voter, Sheehy won several more. The result was a resounding eight-point Republican victory, removing Democrats from the last statewide office they still held in Montana.

For the Republicans, it completed their dominance of states stretching from the Northern Plains to the Rocky Mountains.

“We’ve got North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah — we’re all a little red right now,” said Don Kaltschmidt, chairman of the Republican Party of Montana.

As recently as 2007, Democrats held a majority of Senate seats in the Northern Plains and nearly every statewide office in Montana.

Daines — who led the Republican Party’s effort to retake the Senate as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — pointed out during Sheehy’s election that Republicans would control both of Montana’s Senate seats for the first time in more than a century .

‘Conservative refugees’

Tester and other Democrats lament the wealth that has transformed the state. It’s most noticeable in areas like Big Sky and Kalispell, where multimillion-dollar homes occupy the surrounding mountainsides while large groups of service members struggle to find housing.

It’s not quite the same as the Copper Kings — who at their height controlled elected officials from both major parties — but Democrats see parallels.

“What do they say – history doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes,” said Monica Tranel, the defeated Democratic candidate in a western Montana House district. “It’s very reminiscent of what happened in the early 20th century. Above all, it is a time of change and unrest and who has a voice.”

Montana gained a second seat in the House of Representatives in 2022 as a result of population growth over the past decade, giving Democrats a chance to regain power. After a narrow loss that year to former Trump Interior Sec. Ryan Zinke, Tranel ran again this year and lost.

As she turned to history to explain Montana’s contemporary political dynamics, Tranel pondered the future. She acknowledged that Democrats are out of step with a conservative electorate more attuned to party labels.

“The label itself is what they respond to,” she said. “Do we need another party at this point?”

Republican officials embraced wealthy newcomers.

Steve Kelly, 66, who calls himself a “conservative refugee,” moved to northwestern Montana from Nevada at the height of the pandemic. He spent most of his 30-year career in law enforcement in Reno, but said he grew tired of the city as it grew and became more liberal — “San Francisco East,” he called it.

In 2020, Kelly and his wife bought a house outside of Kalispell on a few acres so they could have horses. He became involved in the local Republican Party and won a seat in the state Legislature this fall on an anti-illegal immigration platform.

“It seems to be different here. Most of the people we met were also conservative refugees, moving from other cities,” he said.

Driving the growth are transplants from Western states dominated by Democrats, especially California, where more than 85,000 Montanans came from, or about 7.5% of the population, Census data show. Nearly half of Montana residents were born outside the state.

Wages for workers in Montana have been stagnant for decades, said Megan Lawson of the independent research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman. Income from stocks, real estate and other investments has risen sharply, reflecting the changing – and wealthier – demographics.

“Certainly, a lot of it comes from people moving to this state,” Lawson said. “When you put it all together, it helps explain the story of the political shift.”

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Associated Press reporter Michael Schneider in Orlando, Florida, contributed to this report.