Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his College Football Week 3 games, starting with Michigan hosting Arkansas State and a few rival matchups.
Arkansas State at Michigan (-23.5): O/U 47.5
The Michigan Wolverines had a lot of trouble against Texas last week, ending their home winning streak. But many of those problems will be solved with duct tape when Arkansas State comes to town.
The Red Wolves have escaped with two wins by a combined seven points against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, including a touchdown with 3 seconds left to beat Central Arkansas. Jaylen Raynor has four sacks and two interceptions in two games, plus the team has four fumbles.
Michigan’s pass rush and pass defense are as good as they come, so I expect Arkansas State to be outplayed early in this game and see a fair amount of turnovers and 3-and-outs. I played Arkansas State’s Team Total Under 12.5 at -113 odds, which would drop to 10.5. This is my best guess of the weekend.
Choice: Arkansas State Team Total Under 12.5 (2hrs)
*opportunities thanks to BettingMGM
Washington State vs. Washington (-5): O/U 56.5
This is a neutral site meeting at Lumen Field in Seattle, where the Seahawks and I think we’re in for a doozy. Last year, Washington won 24-21 at home and extended their winning streak to two games in this series.
The Huskies have won 9 of the last 10 meetings with Washington State, so it hasn’t really been a rivalry for the past decade. However, we have to adjust our expectations to what Washington is now.
Washington has a new coaching staff, a quarterback who leads a mediocre offense and a solid defense that hasn’t yet faced challenges. The Huskies struggled against Eastern Michigan, and without two rushing touchdowns in the final 3:04 of the first half, Washington would have been wary of an upset.
I played Washington State +5 at -110 odds and the ML at +165. I would go to +3 on the Cougars spread.
Choice: Washington State +5 (1h), Washington State ML (0.5h)
Indiana (-3) at UCLA: O/U 46.0
The Peacock Game of the Night will be an intriguing matchup between two first-year head coaches in the Big Ten. Plus, this will be the UCLA Bruins’ first-ever game in the Big Ten.
I am a big supporter of Curt Cignetti, the head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers. He was a coach at my alma mater IUP when I was a student and a sports reporter for the local paper, so I have a lot of respect for his career ascent. However, this is not an ideal place.
The Hoosiers have outscored their opponents 108-10 in two games, but those teams were FIU and Western Illinois. They’ll be flying across the country to take on UCLA at 10:30 ET, and the Bruins have had the last 10+ days off to rest, refocus, and game plan for Indiana.
I admit UCLA didn’t look good in the first half against Hawaii, but there was some hope in the second half. I’m going with the home underdog here. I’m going with UCLA +3 (-105) and the ML (+136).
Choice: UCLA +3 (1h), UCLA ML (0.5h)
*opportunities thanks to BettingMGM
West Virginia (-3) at Pitt: O/U 63.5
The Backyard Brawl is one of the better competitions in football and this year it is likely to be a memorable match again, even though it is already the third year that the sport has been renewed.
Pitt won 38-31 in Pitt and WVU won 17-6 in Morgantown. So the home team is 2-0 in the ML and 2-0 ATS, which I believe is the case here as well.
Both teams will not be the same offensively as last year, bringing the total to 60.5. The home crowd will play a role in this, as this is one of the few games Pitt sells out.
The Panthers showed a lot of guts last week with a come-from-behind 28-27 win over Cincinnati. That momentum should continue this week, as the look-ahead spot was no problem for the Panthers. I played Pitt +3 (-115) and picked up the ML at +130.
Choice: Pitt +3 (1h), Pitt ML (0.5h)
Air Force at Baylor (-16.5): O/U 41.5
The Air Force offense is in contention to open the season with 21 points against Merrimack and 17 in a loss to San Jose State, both at home. Now the Falcons head to Baylor before a bye week.
Baylor’s offense is nothing to brag about either, scoring 12 points in a loss at Utah. Baylor’s new offense is still trying to find itself with Toledo transfer Dequan Finn at quarterback. Finn has completed 53% of his passes through two weeks, and Air Force ranks 25th in third-down defense so far and is normally a solid defense, so I don’t expect much from Finn.
Finn likes to run, he has 19 attempts in two games, and Air Force is productive against stopping running quarterbacks and teams, so this seems like an Under play to me. I took the Under 41.5 (-110) and would go to 39.5.
Choice: Under 41.5 (1h)
*opportunities thanks to BettingMGM
Troy at Iowa (-22.5): O/U 39.0
I was hoping the Iowa Hawkeyes would become our 2023 Michigan Wolverines and form a defensive line that would earn us Team Total Unders every week, but Iowa State had a tremendous fourth quarter and not only beat Iowa, but went over their Team Total.
I’m going to go over it again and bet that Iowa’s defense is dominant and not just by a single score against the Troy Trojans. Troy is 0-2 with losses to Nevada (28-26) and Memphis (38-17).
In the previous game against Memphis, their starting QB Goose Crowder was injured and is listed as probable for Iowa. Without Crowder, Troy kicked a field goal and scored a meaningless TD in the 4th quarter while trailing 38-10, so they need him to sniff the red zone for Iowa.
I don’t think Troy’s passing game or ground game pose enough of a threat to get into the end zone more than once, so I took the Trojans Team Total Under 7.5 at -130 odds. I’d play Under 6.5 for +125 or better.
Choice: Troy Team Total Under 7.5 (1h)
Shedeur Sanders Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+116) vs. Colorado State
I’m in Denver this weekend and I have to watch the game at a sports bar or something because I want to get a taste of the Colorado atmosphere at Colorado State.
Shedeur Sanders threw for 3 touchdowns in the second half of that game and finished with 4 touchdowns through the air, along with 348 yards, 47 pass attempts and 1 interception.
Colorado probably won’t reach the end zone unless Sanders throws the ball, which should be the right decision 90% of the time, given the lackluster offensive line and weak offense.
Sanders has thrown at least 2 or more passing TDs in 8 of the last 13 games (61.5%) and 3 or more in 5 of those 13 (38.4%). In that same span, in wins or losses by single digits, he has thrown at least 2 TDs in 8 of those 9 games (88.8%) and 3+ in 5 of those 9 (55.5%). So give me Sanders Over 2.5 Pass TDs for plus money.
Choice: Shedeur Sanders Over 2.5 Pass TDs (1h)
Season record: 8-17 (28.5%) -12.28 units
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