Newport Beach made national news this summer after a New Zealand tourist was killed in a violent robbery at Fashion Island, one of Orange County’s most upscale shopping centers.
Four months earlier, police in an Irvine city issued a warning on social media after 34 home burglaries were reported in almost as many days. Residents accustomed to the quiet security of the master-planned suburban community were perplexed.
“What happened to Irvine?” a man questioned at the police post.
Although Orange County’s coastal cities are generally far removed from the safety concerns of Los Angeles and other major urban centers, the debate over crime has become a critical issue in elections considered crucial in determining which party takes control of the House. Delegates checks after the November elections. .
Read more: Trio accused of killing New Zealand tourist to stay in jail without bail
Republican Scott Baugh and Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) are vying for the seat representing the 47th Congressional District, which includes Irvine, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach and Huntington Beach. Rep. Katie Porter, who represents the district, decided not to seek re-election, instead launching an unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate.
Republicans have used crime as a possible way to appeal to voters and flip the coveted seat. Republicans’ argument that Democrats are weak on crime has historically served the GOP well. Years of polling show that voters view Republicans as stricter on justice issues.
“People who live in cities have more tolerance for the disorder in the urban environment. It’s not just crime, but there’s trash, cars parked on the sidewalk. A lot of things you just don’t see in the suburbs,” said Matt . Lesenyie, assistant professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach. “The people who are most concerned about crime, at least in this cycle, tend to be people who are generally not around it.”
Less than a month after the Fashion Island death, Baugh posted on the social media site[supporting] reducing penalties for theft, allowing rampant vandalism and grabbing in our shopping centers… and even the murder of an innocent grandmother this month.”
Min accused Baugh of lying about his criminal record and responded by sending a cease and desist letter to his opponent’s home in Huntington Beach, according to a video posted on Min’s campaign website.
Min has campaigned as a Democrat of a different style – one who supports core progressive issues such as abortion rights and environmental protection – but also as someone who wants to break away from his party on certain crime and criminal issues.
“I have been much more moderate on public safety and taxes,” Min said during a recent interview with The Times. “And it turns out that these are the issues that Republicans want me to address most. So the point is that they now have to take voices out of context to paint that picture.”
In the months leading up to Election Day, conservative political action committees sent a half-dozen mailers to voters in the district, all targeting Min’s record on criminal justice issues. One mailer features a photo of Min looking somber before the faded glow of red and blue police lights, criticizing him for his 2023 arrest for drunken driving. The ad claims that “convicted drunk driver Dave Min has brought LA-style crime to Orange County.”
More than $7.5 million has been spent by political action committees opposing Min. About $4.4 million has been spent fighting Baugh. The Conservative PAC Club For Growth Action has spent about $1.27 million on Min this cycle, and the Win It Back PAC has spent more than $1.17 million, campaign finance records show.
Read more: Your guide to California’s 47th Congressional District race: Baugh vs. Min
Mailers sent by PACs on Min’s behalf have touted his efforts to create “a safer Orange County” and his efforts to end the sale of firearms at the OC Fairgrounds.
Baugh has also faced attacks on criminal charges he faced stemming from an accusation that he falsified state-required financial disclosure forms related to his 1995 campaign, which gave Republicans control for the first time in 25 years about the California Assembly. In 1999, Baugh agreed to pay a $47,900 civil penalty for nine violations of the state’s Political Reform Act.
At the same time, the conservative Win It Back and Club For Growth Action have sent mailers to voters in the district criticizing Min on criminal justice issues such as bail and his DUI arrest. The “cash bail” mailer points to Min’s 2021 vote in favor of SB 262, which aimed to prevent defendants from paying for the conditions of their release and would have required the courts to post a bail premium refund if a defendant’s charges were dropped. The legislation died in session.
Voters also see it on television and on social media.
A television commercial paid for by the Win It Back PAC criticizes Min’s support for a bill that would have banned the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation from providing immigration officials with information about the release dates of detainees who may be eligible for deportation. The bill, which had broad support among Democrats in the Legislature, was vetoed by Governor Gavin Newsom.
The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund released a television ad this month criticizing his yes vote on the Safer Streets for All Act, which Newsom signed into law in 2022, saying it makes it “harder for police to investigate sex crimes to research.” Supporters say the law was written to prevent police officers from profiling people loitering — and labeling them as prostitutes — based on their appearance.
Dean Jon Gould of the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology said the ads are clearly “targeted at people who don’t pay much attention to politics but hope they will vote.”
“They are trying to corrupt Min and tie him to crime,” he said.
A recent survey from USC and Cal State Long Beach found that mentioning Min’s drunk driving in attack ads could work. When asked to name a word or phrase to describe each candidate, Min’s most common open-ended comment was “DUI” or “Drunken Driving.” It’s likely that voters recently associated Baugh with “conservative.”
Many of those voters weren’t necessarily enthusiastic about the choices at the top of the ticket, the poll found. So these ads could be a way to draw voters who may not be passionate about the presidential race to the polls, experts say.
“If you are activated by the crime stories, you probably already know who gets your vote,” Lesenyie said. “If you think crime is around every corner, those mailers are more of a turnout exercise for conservative voters.”
Min broke with party leadership, including Newsom, over the summer when he publicly supported Proposition 36, a controversial anti-crime measure on the November ballot that aims to increase penalties for certain theft and drug offenses.
The ballot measure would change crucial parts of Proposition 47, a ballot measure passed by voters a decade ago aimed at imposing harsher penalties on repeat shoplifting offenders. It would also mandate drug treatment as an option — instead of prison time — for those who commit certain drug crimes.
“I think my views on crime and punishment are probably similar to most people I know,” Min said. “I believe that if you commit a crime, you should suffer the consequences, and the punishment should be proportionate to the crime or the harm done to society.”
Read more: Californians broadly support Prop. 36 to crack down on crime, according to a new poll
Baugh, an early supporter of Proposition 36, said when he knocked on the door he heard a similar refrain from voters in the district. They worry about the impact of inflation, the border and crime seeping into their communities.
“This is in areas that are traditionally the safest places in the country,” Baugh said. “This is the policy of our state. A message has been sent to criminals that it is okay to commit these crimes. There will be no consequences. All it does is encourage more of them.”
Despite opposition from civil rights groups and prominent Democrats, many Californians support the ballot measure.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll released last month found that 71% of likely voters in California said they would vote in favor of Proposition 36. The numbers were even higher among voters in Orange County and San Diego, 74% of whom said they would vote in favor. the ballot measure.
“Crime has been in the news and Orange County residents — you could say — are here because they don’t want to have to deal with that,” Gould said.
Sign up for Essential California to get news, features, recommendations from the LA Times and more delivered to your inbox six days a week.
This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
