Canelo Alvarez will once again enter Las Vegas as the heavy favorite to defend his super middleweight title. This time, he will face Edgar Berlanga at the T-Mobile Arena on September 14, and the odds are lopsided, even by Alvarez’s standards.
Finding betting value on an Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KO) fight can be tricky, but not impossible. Then there’s Berlanga (22-0, 17 KO), who could have a solid game to drive ticket sales and pay-per-view buys, but is he a real threat as a massive underdog? Let’s take a closer look.
Canelo Alvarez (-200) vs. Edgar Berlanga (+750)
On paper, Berlanga is no match for Alvarez, who has defeated many more experienced fighters recently. Berlanga is young and brash, which always helps sell a fight, but he hasn’t shown much that he’s capable of beating a fighter of Alvarez’s caliber in a fight.
Berlanga’s best chance at an upset, then, is to hit Alvarez with just the right punch at just the right time. The problem is that Alvarez has never been knocked down in a fight. And that’s not because he hasn’t faced opponents with serious punching power.
At 34 and with over 60 professional fights under his belt, there’s always a chance that Alvarez could show up and look old overnight, but it’s not like he hasn’t been active enough to show us how he handles Father Time on a regular basis. Alvarez has been averaging two fights a year for a long time now. He always comes in focused and ready to perform, with a style that lends itself to longevity.
It gets interesting when you ask yourself, can Alvarez stop Berlanga? The -275 line on Alvarez in the distance isn’t nearly as limiting, but you have to remember he hasn’t stopped anyone in nearly three years.
That said, Berlanga does have some defensive holes that Alvarez could exploit. The big question is whether Alvarez is willing to take the risks and get aggressive enough to knock Berlanga out, or whether he will be satisfied with his fourth straight decision win.
If it’s the latter, the +275 line on Alvarez winning on points starts to look attractive. Still, Berlanga is a tough young fighter in the biggest fight of his life, so expect him to be ready for war. If Alvarez wants to get him out of there, it may have to come later in the fight, through a steady process of attrition.
