It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
Now that this season’s playoffs have been expanded to 12 teams, we’ll be breaking down the expected playoff field each week as the season progresses. Yes, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until November 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as a guide, we’ll rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as a barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have far more similarities than differences by the end of the season. Here’s what the preliminary playoff field looks like after Week 2.
Bye round first round
After dominating Clemson in Week 1, Georgia took a breather in Week 2, suffering a walkover against Tennessee Tech. The Bulldogs visit Kentucky in Week 3 after the faltering Wildcats were steamrolled at home by South Carolina in Week 2. Things could get ugly in Lexington on Saturday night.
The Buckeyes started off slow against Akron in Week 1, but have been on top of their game over the last seven quarters. Ohio State routed Western Michigan 56-0 in Week 2, with five-star freshman WR Jeremiah Smith being the team’s leading receiver. The Buckeyes close out non-conference play on Saturday with a home game against Marshall.
Miami is one of the few teams at the top of the ACC that hasn’t lost this season. The Hurricanes defeated Florida in Week 1 and beat Florida A&M in Week 2. Meanwhile, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State have each suffered at least one loss, and the Seminoles are 0-2 in the regular season.
The Utes were very impressive in the first half of an easy win over Baylor in Week 2. The second half was a formality as Utah’s defense took over in the absence of QB Cam Rising. But Rising’s absence could be very, very concerning. The seventh-year QB injured his right hand late in the first half when he was pushed into the coolers at Baylor’s sideline water station. If Rising is sidelined for an extended period, Utah could be in trouble.
First round matches
The Huskies are the talk of college football after beating Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday. The upset was no accident. Northern Illinois was the better team. Can NIU run the table the rest of the way? It’s a tough question. But the big win over the Fighting Irish means NIU has a very strong playoff case with a 13-0 season and a MAC title.
Texas is ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25 but drops to No. 5 in the playoff field because the top four seeds go to the conference champions. The reward for being the best at-large team is a first-round home game and then a quarterfinal against the No. 4 seed, so it’s not a terrible consolation prize. The Longhorns host Georgia on Oct. 19 in what could be a preview of the SEC title game.
The Ducks have dropped to No. 9 in the AP Top 25 after starting the season at No. 3. The six-spot drop comes after Oregon struggled against Idaho in Week 1 and needed a late field goal against Boise State in Week 2. Boise State is really, really good. But this Oregon team should be, too. If Oregon wants to make the playoffs, its revamped offensive line needs to get better.
Alabama also looked far from flawless in Week 2. Turnovers (3) and penalties (13) haunted the Crimson Tide against South Florida before Alabama scored 28 in the fourth quarter to secure the win. This week’s trip to Wisconsin will be a good test for Kalen DeBoer’s team.
This game would be a repeat of last year’s Peach Bowl, won by the Rebels. Penn State looked great in Week 1 against West Virginia and was not so great against Bowling Green in Week 2. The Falcons tore apart the Penn State defense early, before PSU forced two late interceptions to secure the win.
The Ole Miss offense has looked phenomenal so far, but its opponents are Furman and Middle Tennessee State. QB Jaxson Dart is completing 87% of his passes and has thrown six TDs without an interception.
Yes, this would be an all-SEC first-round matchup. It’s possible that could happen, especially if the post-Week 2 AP rankings are a guide to the end-of-season rankings. SEC teams hold six of the top seven spots in this week’s poll, and an SEC team is scheduled to host each of the four first-round games.
This matchup would also be plausible because Tennessee and Missouri no longer meet in the regular season now that the SEC has dropped its divisions. Both teams are known for their offense, but their defenses have been very, very good this season. Tennessee shut down NC State in a 51-10 win in Week 2, and Missouri became the first team since Wisconsin in 2019 to open the season with back-to-back shutouts.
