Colorado State University (CSU) has just updated its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season.
The revised forecast, released on Tuesday, August 6, still predicts an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, which will last from June 1 through November 30.
However, the number of named storms predicted dropped from 25 to 23. Twelve of those 23 are hurricanes, six of which are major hurricanes, that is, hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher.
For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 named storms, with just six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. That means this year’s forecast is about double the 1991-2020 average.
How will all these hurricanes affect New England? Read the details below.
Why are they predicting an active hurricane season in 2024?
CSU lists a number of factors that could cause an increase in hurricanes, the most important being higher sea surface temperatures.
Because water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are still near record highs, the environment for hurricanes to form and strengthen is much more favorable.
The second most important factor is the increasing likelihood of a La Niña climate pattern developing.
La Niña, which has a 70 percent chance of forming this month through October, occurs when waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean cool. The ripple effect through the atmosphere reduces wind shear in the Atlantic, giving budding storms room to grow.
What does a hyperactive hurricane season mean for New England?
CSU predicts a 30% chance of major hurricanes making landfall on the East Coast, higher than the average chance of 21%.
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The threat is certainly more serious for southeastern states, where waters are much warmer. As hurricanes move toward New England, they typically weaken due to colder waters and stronger winds. But even weakened hurricanes can still cause damage, especially as scientists continue to record rising water temperatures off the Northeast coast. Hurricane Henri, for example, made landfall in Rhode Island in 2021 as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing heavy rains and flooding across the region.
If CSU’s forecasts are correct (and they say their forecast is above their normal level of confidence), we are in for a bad hurricane season and repeats of Henri cannot be ruled out.
Why did CSU change its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season?
CSU has been publishing August forecast updates since 1984, so this is not new.
Senior researcher and hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach told the Palm Beach Post that the drop to 23 named storms is not a significant change. The first forecast issued in April also called for 23 named storms.
“We haven’t really had any new named storms between Chris and Debby, so the chances of another 21 named storms are pretty slim,” said Klotzbach, who is the lead author of the CSU weather forecast.
This article originally appeared on The Patriot Ledger: 2024 Hurricane Season: CSU Updates Forecast. Here’s What’s Changed
