LAS VEGAS — Democrats just suffered their first painful defeat at the presidential level in Nevada in two decades, fueled by a swing toward Republicans among working-class voters.
The outcome has led to a reckoning with the way in which they failed. In interviews, top Democrats and their allies cited problems with the message, the late move to appoint Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump’s unique ability to capitalize on the pain of rising costs after the pandemic, which hit hard for many voters.
Still, they remain optimistic about their prospects in Nevada, noting that the red wave ended with Trump and did not translate to other Republicans in the state. The remarkable outcome helps them map out the strategy to paint Nevada blue again in 2028.
“I certainly believe he is, I will say, very gifted at targeting certain groups in society and telling them what they want to know,” said Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., who said she is a district won that supported Trump. “And I think the proof is in the pudding – if he can deliver on those promises.”
If Republicans fail to improve their lives, Lee said, “it will come back to haunt them in two years, and then again in four years.”
While the Democrats’ presidential nominee lost, Sen. Jacky Rosen won reelection, and Democrats won in all three closely divided House districts in the Las Vegas area. Democrats also held on in the state legislature, falling just shy of a supermajority.
Splitting tickets and partially not voting in Nevada’s “none of the above” voting option had consequences.
Harris lost Nevada despite winning about 4,000 more votes than Rosen. The main difference? Many Trump supporters refused to check the box for Rosen’s opponent, Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown. Brown received almost 75,000 fewer votes than Trump.
A message from the working class
“Trump is a phenomenon. He is a brand. And he’s been doing ‘The Apprentice’ for 30 years, which appears on the WWF and so on,” says Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the influential Culinary Union in Las Vegas. “If you lose the top of the ticket you normally have damage. It didn’t happen.”
With its large population of Latinos and voters without college degrees, Nevada was ground zero for the two demographic groups that helped Trump sweep all seven battleground states.
Trump lost Latinos by 26 percentage points in 2020, but won them by 2 points this year, according to NBC News Nevada exit polls. Among Nevada voters without a college degree, Trump expanded his lead from 2 points in 2020 to 10 points this year.
Pappageorge, whose union represents workers who staff Sin City’s glamorous hotels and casinos, said Democrats have been hurt by “message problems” that allowed Trump to appeal to working-class voters by railing against “elitism.”
“Democrats must get back to the basics of fighting for working-class issues and values,” he said, including “white, black, and working-class Latinos,” both men and women. “Working class voters don’t pay attention to politics. They don’t watch CNN and Fox or anything. They are worried about taking care of their families,” he said.
Even as Trump gave Nevada Latinos a 2-point lead, they voted for Rosen by 7 points, according to NBC News exit polls.
Republican hopes for the future
Republicans say Nevada’s vote for Trump marks the beginning of a shift toward their party that the GOP can build on.
“It’s a really big deal. We’ve seen Republicans have success at the state level since 2004, but the presidential election eluded us,” said Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist who has worked on Nevada races. “If you look at 2020, 2022 and 2024, you will see a trend that anyone would be foolish to ignore.”
Asked about the Republican Party’s inability to lower the ballot measure, Hughes said, “It’s still a work in progress. Defeating incumbents is difficult. But success will build on success as we continue to implement it in 2026 and beyond.”
He added that Republicans can start to prove Democrats wrong by re-electing Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in 2026.
Other Republicans said resources were a problem during the vote.
“Brown was poorly spent. He closed the gap, but the cavalry probably arrived about a week late,” said a national Republican strategist covering Senate races who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about his party.
The strategist said the House GOP machine “hasn’t spent a dime” in Nevada this year, but added: “Republicans should be optimistic about Nevada down the road. Voter registration trends tell the story.”
The Democrats’ road map
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., who defied headwinds to win in 2022, said Democrats must get a handle on the growing number of unaffiliated voters.
“We have more nonpartisan or independent people in the state of Nevada now than ever before, more than a third of them. And so we need to know who they are,” she said. “You ultimately have to target your message to those voters and talk about the issues that matter to them. That’s why Jacky won.”
“The races in Nevada are always competitive and close. That’s not going to change. We have always had close presidential races,” Cortez Masto said. “But at the end of the day, do I have confidence in the Democratic ground game and the infrastructure and knocking on doors and talking to our voters? I do have confidence in that. And that is one of the reasons why we are so successful.”
Rosen said she won because she achieved results in tourism, wildfire suppression, infrastructure, a new Veterans Affairs hospital in Reno and jobs in solar, wind and geothermal energy.
Harris, she said, was paralyzed by bad luck.
‘There are of course much bigger questions. I say this as a woman: Are people ready for a female president?” Rosen said. “This was a unique election cycle because of the way President Biden stepped back 100 days before the election.”
Josh Marcus-Blank, a Democratic operative who worked for Cortez Masto in 2022 and for Harris’ 2024 campaign, said his party is maintaining “the road map to win in Nevada” with a diverse coalition of voters and an agenda focused on the economy , housing and social security. the cost of living.
“At the same time, it is a state where voters consistently stand up for reproductive freedom, and whether it makes it on the ballot or not, abortion rights will remain a key part of Democratic campaigns going forward,” he said.
Pappageorge praised Harris for running a strong campaign against great odds. He said while the Biden-Harris policies toward workers are strong, many don’t see this.
“Joe Biden was the most pro-union, pro-labor candidate and president we have ever had in our lifetimes,” he said. “But overall, the Democratic Party has missed the mark, and they will have to reevaluate that commitment to working-class voters.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
