Last season, I ran a weekly article on expected points here on Rotoworld and discussed a few players whose expected fantasy points suggested they had more to offer than their final line for the week. For example, Jaleel McLaughlin, who finished Week 1 as the RB36 in PPR leagues with 7.8 fantasy points, was the RB26 in expected fantasy points, thanks in part to solid passing game opportunities.
For those who don’t know, expected points apply point values ​​to players’ chances based on a number of factors including down, distance, and where they were on the field when they were given said chances. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their chances — what we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pointing out some of the more important moves I can make from week to week, I’ll use what we’ve seen in the expected points to highlight some players we may not see in the coming weeks.
Below each position I will also post tables showing the previous week’s expected fantasy points, sorted from most to least expected fantasy points.
In a normal week, I would do a full write-up of a handful of players I like at each position based on expected fantasy points. This week, thankfully, is not a “normal” week by life standards, as my wife and I welcomed our first child into the family. Everyone is doing great. That said, Week 1 expected points for 50 RBs, 50 WRs, and 15 TEs can be found below. I’m excited to dive deeper into Week 3 expected points!
Statistics and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4Voor4.com, FantasyPoints.com And RBSDM.com. All scores are based on full PPR leagues.
Backrunners
Expected points week 1
|
Player |
Team |
EP |
FPOE |
PPR |
|
Joe Mixon |
HOUSE |
24.2 |
2.6 |
26.8 |
|
Alvin Kamara |
NO |
20.1 |
1.9 |
22.0 |
|
Jahmyr Gibbs |
THIS |
19.9 |
-2.5 |
17.4 |
|
The’Von Achane |
Missing |
19.6 |
3.4 |
23.0 |
|
Rhamondre Stevenson |
NO |
18.9 |
2.7 |
21.6 |
|
Saquon-Barkley |
PHI |
18.8 |
14.4 |
33.2 |
|
Breece Hall |
NYJ |
18.4 |
1.9 |
20.3 |
|
Rachaad White |
TB |
18.4 |
-1.8 |
16.6 |
|
Kyren Williams |
LAR |
18.1 |
-3.7 |
14.4 |
|
Jerome Ford |
CLE |
17.6 |
1.3 |
18.9 |
|
Jordan Mason |
SF |
17.4 |
4.8 |
22.2 |
|
Josh Jacobs |
NL |
17.1 |
-4.7 |
12.4 |
|
James Conner |
ARI |
16.7 |
2.6 |
19.3 |
|
Bijan Robinson |
ATL |
15.7 |
0.4 |
16.1 |
|
James Kok |
BUTTONS |
14.9 |
-1.6 |
13.3 |
|
Brian Robinson Jr |
WAS |
14.8 |
3.1 |
17.9 |
|
Kenneth Walker III |
SEA |
14.4 |
4.5 |
18.9 |
|
Isaac Pacheco |
KC |
14.1 |
1.7 |
15.8 |
|
Najee Harris |
PIT |
14.1 |
-5.2 |
8.9 |
|
Right Hill |
BALL |
13.5 |
-2 |
11.5 |
|
Jonathan Taylor |
IND |
13.5 |
-2.7 |
10.8 |
|
Tony Pollard |
TEN |
13.2 |
5.2 |
18.4 |
|
David Montgomery |
THIS |
13.2 |
3.1 |
16.3 |
|
Travis Etienne |
JAC |
12.2 |
1.7 |
13.9 |
|
Devin Singletary |
New Zealand |
12.1 |
-2.9 |
9.2 |
|
Jaleel McLaughlin |
THE |
12 |
-4.2 |
7.8 |
|
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
11.9 |
7 |
18.9 |
|
Zack Moss |
CIN |
11.1 |
3 |
14.1 |
|
Alexander Mattison |
LV |
10.5 |
5.7 |
16.2 |
|
Ezekiel Elliott |
VALLEY |
10.3 |
2.6 |
12.9 |
|
JK Dobbins |
LAC |
10.2 |
12.7 |
22.9 |
|
Derrick Henry |
BALL |
10.1 |
0.5 |
10.6 |
|
Gus Edwards |
LAC |
9 |
-5.2 |
3.8 |
|
Zamir White |
LV |
8.8 |
-2.2 |
6.6 |
|
Ty Chandler |
MIN |
8.5 |
-1.3 |
7.2 |
|
Bucky Irving |
TB |
8.4 |
1.2 |
9.6 |
|
Javonte Williams |
THE |
7.9 |
-4.6 |
3.3 |
|
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
7.8 |
4.3 |
12.1 |
|
Austin Ekeler |
WAS |
7.4 |
2.8 |
10.2 |
|
Tyjae Spears |
TEN |
7 |
0.2 |
7.2 |
|
D’André Swift |
CHI |
6.9 |
-1.9 |
5.0 |
|
Raheem Mostert |
Missing |
6.8 |
-2.9 |
3.9 |
|
Jamaal Williams |
NO |
6.5 |
5.6 |
12.1 |
|
Pursuit Brown |
CIN |
5.7 |
-0.4 |
5.3 |
|
Emanuel Wilson |
NL |
5.6 |
1.2 |
6.8 |
|
Pierre Sterk Jr. |
CLE |
5.5 |
-0.5 |
5.0 |
|
Bigsby Tank |
JAC |
5.4 |
1.9 |
7.3 |
|
Rico Dowdle |
VALLEY |
5.2 |
-1 |
4.2 |
|
Tyrone Tracy Jr |
New Zealand |
5 |
-3.3 |
1.7 |
|
Mile Sanders |
AUTO |
4.4 |
-2.2 |
2.2 |
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Wide receivers
Expected points week 1
|
Player |
Team |
EP |
FPOE |
PPR |
|
Cooper Kupp |
LAR |
40.3 |
-8.3 |
32.0 |
|
Deebo Samuel |
SF |
22.2 |
-3.5 |
18.7 |
|
Keenan Allen |
CHI |
20.5 |
-13.6 |
6.9 |
|
Wan’Dale Robinson |
New Zealand |
20 |
-8.2 |
11.8 |
|
Garrett Wilson |
NYJ |
19.2 |
-7.2 |
12.0 |
|
Hofland Sutton |
THE |
19 |
-11.2 |
7.8 |
|
Zay Flowers |
BALL |
18.8 |
-7.7 |
11.1 |
|
CeeDee Lam |
VALLEY |
17.7 |
-4.1 |
13.6 |
|
Tyreek Heuvel |
Missing |
16.4 |
9.6 |
26.0 |
|
Stefon Diggs |
HOUSE |
15.8 |
6.1 |
21.9 |
|
AJ Brown |
PHI |
15.7 |
7.2 |
22.9 |
|
Allen Lazard |
NYJ |
15.5 |
11.4 |
26.9 |
|
Jameson Williams |
THIS |
15.3 |
9.1 |
24.4 |
|
Amari Cooper |
CLE |
15.1 |
-11.5 |
3.6 |
|
Tank-Dell |
HOUSE |
14.7 |
-5.8 |
8.9 |
|
Jerry Jeudy |
CLE |
14 |
-2.5 |
11.5 |
|
Rashee Rice |
KC |
13.5 |
3.8 |
17.3 |
|
Chris Godwin |
TB |
13.4 |
8.9 |
22.3 |
|
Greg Dortch |
ARI |
13.3 |
-2.2 |
11.1 |
|
DJ Moore |
CHI |
13.2 |
-3.2 |
10.0 |
|
Ladd McConkey |
LAC |
13.1 |
1.8 |
14.9 |
|
Romeo Doubs |
NL |
12.8 |
-3.8 |
9.0 |
|
Diontae Johnson |
AUTO |
12.7 |
-8.8 |
3.9 |
|
George Pickens |
PIT |
12.6 |
0.9 |
13.5 |
|
Josh Reynolds |
THE |
12.6 |
-3.1 |
9.5 |
|
Mike Evans |
TB |
12.6 |
10.5 |
23.1 |
|
DeVonta Smith |
PHI |
12.4 |
3 |
15.4 |
|
Devaughn Vele |
THE |
12.3 |
-0.4 |
11.9 |
|
Michael Pittman Jr |
IND |
12.3 |
-5.2 |
7.1 |
|
Demarcus Robinson |
LAR |
12.1 |
-3.9 |
8.2 |
|
Xavier Legette |
AUTO |
12 |
-4.5 |
7.5 |
|
Justin Jefferson |
MIN |
11.7 |
4.2 |
15.9 |
|
Nico Collins |
HOUSE |
11.7 |
6 |
17.7 |
|
Brandin is cooking |
VALLEY |
11.4 |
3.1 |
14.5 |
|
KJ Osborn |
NO |
11.2 |
-6.1 |
5.1 |
|
Tyler Johnson |
LAR |
11.2 |
1.7 |
12.9 |
|
Jayden Reed |
NL |
11 |
22.1 |
33.1 |
|
Christian Watson |
NL |
10.9 |
-0.6 |
10.3 |
|
Malik Nabers |
New Zealand |
10.9 |
0.7 |
11.6 |
|
Ray-Ray McCloud |
ATL |
10.9 |
-1.7 |
9.2 |
|
Amon-Ra St Brown |
THIS |
10.7 |
-6.4 |
4.3 |
|
Calvin Ridley |
TEN |
10.5 |
-2.5 |
8.0 |
|
Tyler Boyd |
TEN |
10.4 |
-5.6 |
4.8 |
|
Tyler Lockett |
SEA |
10.4 |
3.3 |
13.7 |
|
Andrei Iosivas |
CIN |
9.8 |
-4.2 |
5.6 |
|
Elijah Moore |
CLE |
9.5 |
-5.6 |
3.9 |
|
Keon Coleman |
BUTTONS |
9.4 |
-0.3 |
9.1 |
|
Davante Adams |
LV |
9.1 |
1.8 |
10.9 |
|
Jauan Jennings |
SF |
9 |
2.4 |
11.4 |
|
Ja’Marr Chase |
CIN |
8.9 |
3.3 |
12.2 |
Tight ends
Expected points week 1
|
Player |
Team |
EP |
FPOE |
PPR |
|
Isaiah Probably |
BALL |
20.2 |
5.9 |
26.1 |
|
Trey McBride |
ARI |
15.8 |
-7.8 |
8.0 |
|
Brock Bowers |
LV |
11.4 |
0.4 |
11.8 |
|
Jake Ferguson |
VALLEY |
9.8 |
-5.3 |
4.5 |
|
Sam LaPorta |
THIS |
9 |
-0.5 |
8.5 |
|
Kyle Pitts |
ATL |
8.1 |
3.5 |
11.6 |
|
Foster Moreau |
NO |
8 |
6.3 |
14.3 |
|
George Kittel |
SF |
8 |
0 |
8 |
|
David Njoku |
CLE |
7.5 |
0.9 |
8.4 |
|
Dallas Goedert |
PHI |
7.4 |
-0.3 |
7.1 |
|
Mike Gesicki |
CIN |
7.1 |
-2.3 |
4.8 |
|
Jordan Akins |
CLE |
6.9 |
-1.2 |
5.7 |
|
Colby-Parkinson |
LAR |
6.5 |
2.2 |
8.7 |
|
Noah Fant |
SEA |
6.3 |
-3.2 |
3.1 |
|
Evan Engram |
JAC |
6.3 |
-4.8 |
1.5 |
