Fact or fiction: The NBA’s 2024 free-agency class was a dud

Each week during the 2024-2025 NBA season, we’ll dive deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an effort to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction.

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Fact or fiction: The NBA’s 2024 free-agency class was a dud

No team spent more on payroll this past summer than the Philadelphia 76ers, who own the NBA’s worst record through the first month of the season — indirect evidence that the 2024 free-agency class was a bust.

Let’s dig deeper into that question to see if the teams managed to make the save some value.

First, a reintroduction of Cost Per Win (CPW), a metric created here in 2016 to measure the cost of each player’s contributions to a team’s success in a given season: we take the Average Annual Value (AAV) of a player’s contract and divide it by that player’s Win Shares (WS) and extrapolate the data to a full season. This gives us an approximate breakdown of how much teams pay their players for each win.

We’ve broken down the 56 free agents who changed teams over the summer into four categories: big ($12,859,001+), mid-range ($5,183,000-$12,859,000), cheap ($1,157,153-$5,182,999) and two-way players. It is more difficult to equate value across levels. Teams to expect to pay more per win for players with maximum salary. Usage varies. Roles are different. Minimum salary players do not stabilize organizations. The addition of an expensive free agent has been known to attract cheaper agents, as was the case in Philadelphia.

2024 major NBA free agents

Eighty-eight players have recorded at least one win share through the first month of the season, and only two of them – Sacramento Kings standout DeMar DeRozan and Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris – were major acquisitions in free agency.

And who else bid on DeRozan or Harris?

Granted, Isaiah Hartenstein made his season debut for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, the same day Paul George hyperextended his left knee for the second time in five weeks. We might expect Harris to have had a bigger impact on the Pistons than George had on the Philadelphia 76ers, though that’s no less disheartening for the Sixers fans who drove Harris out of town.

Pause for a moment to think about what signing George – the most skilled player in a shallow pool of big-name free agents – could mean for Philly. He is the only player still active from the 2010 draft class and has played more than 56 games once in the past five years, his contract season. He suffered serious injuries to all his limbs and will be paid $56.6 million in 2028, when he turns 38 years old.

It also doesn’t help that max-paid teammates Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey can’t stay on the court. At some point, the three of them will play together for sustained minutes. Presumably they will win games. But it bears repeating: the 76ers have paid George $9 million to date to contribute a tenth of a win share.

2024 Mid-Range NBA Free Agents

Four of the aforementioned 88 players received mid-range contracts last summer.

We also had 88 film games on Kris Dunn in Utah, where he was his usual All-Defensive caliber self and added a 3-point shot (40% on 147 attempts). To suggest not queuing for those services with little money. Still, the LA Clippers placed him on July 1 due to the taxpayer’s mid-level exception. It pays to be early – and be right.

The same goes for Naji Marshall, a tough winger whose three-point shooting rose to a career-high 38.7% last season. That’s down to 13% early this season, but the Dallas Mavericks should be encouraged that he’s still generating significant value as they wait for his shot to move toward average.

Chris Paul, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, Jonas Valanciunas and Derrick Jones Jr. were known as commodities when they entered free agency, and they are delivering on their mid-salary promise. They’re all on pace for a handful of win shares this season, which Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid provided for the Minnesota Timberwolves last season. In other words, $2 million per win is a good value for a mid-level salary.

2024 cheap nba free agents

The Memphis Grizzlies signed Jay Huff to a two-way contract in July, and a week into this season he was upgraded to a fully guaranteed salary for the next two years. He more than earned that deal.

We shouldn’t be surprised to see Tyus Jones on this list. His minimum salary was a gift to the Phoenix Suns as he prioritized a significant role to showcase his true value before the summer of 2025.

And yes, at least the Sixers found some value in this salary level, bringing in Guerschon Yabusele, whose value was clear to anyone who saw him perform against Team USA at the Paris Olympics.

It’s hard to make a serious mistake at this level of compensation. Unfortunately, the Sixers also have Eric Gordon and his -0.2 win shares.

But we have to go back to the Clippers, whose first order of business in free agency was to sign Kevin Porter Jr. to sign a minimum contract. His win share of -0.3 is the fewest of anyone who has played as many minutes as him (275). The Clippers are paying Porter to make their team worse, and no team wants that, especially from this player.

How could the Clippers be so accurate in their assessment of one player and so wrong about the other? It makes you wonder how much luck plays a role in the success of minimum paid players in one season. Adding Jones to that salary is a no-brainer. But you don’t know what you’re going to get year after year from guys like Taurean Prince, Cameron Payne, Javonte Green and Mason Plumlee. Hope for their best.

2024 two-way NBA free agents

Which brings us to the two-way team. All contributions at that level are valuable.

A second to praise Moussa Diabaté. The Clippers – yes, that same Clippers – turned down his $2.1 million qualifying offer, making an athletic 6-foot-4 rim protector a free agent. No one offered the minimum. The Charlotte Hornets took a two-way flier and he owns his 16 minutes per night. He is efficient in his limited offensive possessions, rebounds wildly (16.3 per 36 minutes) and keeps opponents in check.

Overall, the big-ticket free agents were a dud, the mid-tier free agents were mediocre, and the real value was with the cheap free agents. And even then there are few difference makers. The question is not whether the free agency class of 2024 was a dud, but whether free agency itself is dying as a team-building tool.

Provision: Fact. The NBA’s 2024 free-agency class was a dud.