I realize that a fade article might not be the easiest thing to read, as some of these players are going to be your favorites, and probably on some of your fantasy football rosters. I share the same ambivalence. But to make the best decisions in life, we have to try to detach from emotion — the rational and emotional sides of us rarely work together.
Below are some big names that I likely won’t be selecting as we navigate through fantasy football draft season.
RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Barkley comes to a better team at a crucial time, as he enters his 27th season. But how much of Barkley’s explosion is left? He’s averaged 4.4 yards per touch over the last four seasons. Jalen Hurts could also pose a problem for Barkley’s value, as Hurts has a lot of goal-line equity and typically doesn’t throw much to his running backs.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Gibbs might be my toughest cut on this list because I love the Lions offense, especially since the team kept all of its key members (including playmaker Ben Johnson). But Gibbs routinely falls around the 12-13 rotation in many leagues, and that feels early for a player who’s never guaranteed to lead his team in touches or goal-line chances. If you’re open to an explosive player with those caveats, keep in mind that you could likely land De’Von Achane a round later.
WR Davante Adams, Raiders
Adams has already taken a Hall of Fame ticket in my eyes, but things could go awry in Vegas this year as the Raiders try to navigate an offense that doesn’t really have a bona fide quarterback. Gardner Minshew won the starting job this summer, for now, despite a paltry 48.5 completion percentage in the preseason, largely compiled against backup defenders and vanilla defenses. Adams turns 32 in December, which leaves room for some modest skill erosion.
TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Kelce might as well be a pitcher for the Dodgers these days; he’s a back-niner on a behemoth team that’s already planning for the playoffs before the season even starts. The Chiefs used Kelce last year as a load-management player — take it easy during the season, turn him on for the playoffs — and now, with Kelce entering his 35th campaign and fresh off another championship, it’s doubtful that plan will change. Kansas City’s receiver room has also improved, the most impressive since Tyreek Hill left. I see the empty space on your player list, but don’t write Kelce’s name on it.
WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Here’s another receiver headed to Canton who’s not in my 2024 plans. Offensive guru Dave Canales is completely in my inner circle — at this point, I’d follow the guy into a burning building. He coached Geno Smith’s career years two years ago and Baker Mayfield’s last season.
But keep in mind that Smith had a bad season last year (due to a lot of things, but one of them was Canales’ departure), and ask yourself how much you trust Mayfield without his offensive wizard behind the curtain (Canales is now the Panthers’ captain, of course). Evans is also entering his 31st season, and I’d rather be younger with most of my early picks.
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints
I’ve been beating this drum all summer, so it’s probably worth a review at this point. Kamara is another aging player whose efficiency is fizzling out — he didn’t even have a run of more than 20 yards last year. The Saints’ offensive line is considered one of the worst in the league, and when New Orleans gets close, it won’t prioritize Kamara for easy touchdowns — he’s spiked just 10 times in his last 28 games. (Close your eyes, can’t you see Taysom Hill diving from the one?).
Derek Carr will help boost Kamara’s value with a bunch of short passes, even if they’re no longer particularly useful. But given Kamara’s career arc and declining skill set, I can’t take him in this year’s draft.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
Often, a fade is more about the situation and circumstances than the player involved. Aiyuk was always a candidate to give up some of last season’s dreamlike efficiency, and he clearly wasn’t happy all summer following a contract battle that ultimately ended with an extension on Thursday. The ADP between Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel has been close all summer — I’d rather target the versatile Samuel if I’m looking for a receiver in that pocket.
QB Anthony Richardson, Colts
Maybe Richardson is ready to pay his projected ADP, which has pushed him to QB6 in Yahoo drafts. But you can bring in Jayden Daniels about 50 picks later, and his upside feels just as exciting to me (and Daniels had significantly more reps in college).
Even if you miss both quarterbacks, what’s the concern? The position is still as deep as ever. If you miss a train in New York, you catch the next one seven minutes later.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks
While I’ll grant that most receivers have a boom-and-bust flow to their profile, Metcalf feels like a player wired specifically that way. I’m hoping new OC Ryan Grubb can get Seattle’s passing game going again. But when considering the Seahawks receiver room, I’m willing to leave an open spot for a later draft pick in the emerging Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as opposed to the flattened shape of Metcalf’s career.
RB Nick Chubb, Browns
He’s been one of my favorite players for a long time, and it’s no fun playing fantasy football like an actuary. But Chubb is coming off a monstrous left knee injury, the same left knee he injured in college. It’s just not practical to project him to be a dynamic runner in 2024, and of course we don’t even know when Chubb will make his debut (he’s currently on the PUP list, meaning he’ll miss at least four games). Jerome Ford has been available all summer as a cheap fantasy option; consider him.
TE TJ Hockenson, Vikings
Here’s another stab at the misguided Injury Optimism concept. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL around Christmas of last year, so he’s still a ways off in his rehab. And when he does return, he’ll be stepping into an offense likely led by veteran QB Sam Darold.
I know a lot of fantasy managers will pitch for Hockenson, noting the presence of their IR slots. But eventually the real games start and you have more important players demanding those slots. Hockenson is not in my plans for 2024 at all.
Other players I’ll probably ignore:
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WR George Pickens, Steelers: I don’t trust Arthur Smith and the Pittsburgh quarterbacks, although Justin Fields would probably become a fantasy player if they called his number, but for now we’re going with Russell Wilson.
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RB Rashaad White, Buccaneers: White needs a lot of volume and Tampa Bay’s offense will likely regress.
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RB Zamir White, Raiders: White is an ordinary talent who will share time, and the attack may not go anywhere.
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WR Curtis Samuel, accounts: Samuel suffered a toe injury at the wrong time, and my trusted WR Khalil Shakir has always been my favorite answer in this room.
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RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots: He is a good player, but he belongs to the team with the lowest win expectation in the league.
