Consider this column the Make or Break: Injury edition!
Week 7 hit us with a rash of injuries, and often those injuries create more opportunities without sacrificing the must-start.
These injuries are a little different. Multiple teams were hit with injuries that left huge holes in their offense, with young talent ready to step up and be truly viable fantasy fill-ins. However, with multiple options, some of those input choices are not exactly clear.
Who can we trust in week 8?
San Francisco 49ers receiving corps: Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings
Week 7 was a nightmare for the 49ers. They started the game with a nearly full receiving corps — minus Jauan Jennings — and ended the day with Deebo Samuel in the hospital, Brandon Aiyuk out for the season and George Kittle with a sprained foot. It’s difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from the fantasy production of the backup receiving corps in Week 7, as Kansas City is giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opponents. However, we can look at quick counts and entry routes to try and understand the possible Week 8 pecking order.
In his first game right after IR, the 49ers wasted no time integrating Pearsall into the offense. Pearsall had the highest number of snaps and route participation of any 49ers receiver and was tied with Brandon Aiyuk for the team lead with five targets. While the fantasy points for Pearsall weren’t impressive, the fact that he immediately saw such a significant workload (instead of being brought in as an inexperienced rookie) was a fantastic sign.
Jacob Cowing led the way in fantasy points, but had significantly lower snaps (only 12) and routes run (only eight). Sophomore receiver Ronnie Bell saw some use, and veteran Chris Conley was also very active. None of these players are reliable fantasy options. That leaves Pearsall and Jennings, who were inactive in Week 7.
Jennings is a potentially strong player if he is active this week. He proved his upside with his incredible 11-reception, 175-yard, three-touchdown game in Week 3, when he stepped up in Deebo Samuel’s absence. Of course, you have to keep an eye on his hip injury (he was held out of training on Wednesday).
Will Jennings and Pearsall to make or break your line-up in week 8?
There are a few factors here regarding Jennings vs. Pearsall. We know Aiyuk is out, but Kittle and Samuel remain unclear. Samuel was kind enough to let a young fantasy manager know that he’s doing well, but we don’t necessarily know if that means specifically for this week.
If Samuel fails to adapt, both a healthy Jennings and Pearsall lean toward potentially strong flex options. If Samuel manages to play this week, that leaves only one strong play at receiver. Normally, the WR3 is not a viable option for San Francisco. If Jennings returns this week, he would likely be the most reliable receiver of the group given his established chemistry and trust in Brock Purdy. Keep a close eye on practice reports.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan, WR and Bucky Irving, RB
Going forward, Tampa Bay’s receiving corps is a little less defined than the 49ers’. While proven upside and route participation are strong indicators for the 49ers, the Bucs’ offense is a wild card. With the unknown, fantasy managers may be weary of playing a Bucs receiver this week. However, the matchup is excellent and Baker Mayfield is definitely dealing, so there is upside in this receiving corps.
It’s just a matter of how much we can trust it.
We’ll also likely see an increase in receipts for the Bucs’ “three-man monster” RB committee. The Bucs’ use confirms that while it’s a clear committee, Rachaad White is still the lead back. Even though White gets the advantage, Irving can still be a strong contributor. The great thing about Irving is that he isn’t pigeonholed into a specific role. He’s a three-down back and the Bucs can use him alternately with White.
While the backs will likely see an increase in volume, someone needs to step up in the receiving corps. Sterling Shepard has seen an increase in volume in recent weeks, while Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have not been a factor. Shepard likely has the safest floor and will be the player with the most reliable snap count, but at this point in his career, Shepard doesn’t offer significant upside. McMillan came out on top early this season and is the logical player with a higher ceiling.
Will McMillan and Irving to make or break your line-up in week 8?
McMillan is an incredibly risky play. He has bust potential, even in a good matchup. The more reliable flex pivot here is increased pass volume to the running backs, where Irving could be a big beneficiary. Despite playing from behind and being in a bad matchup last week, the three-player committee had two very productive backs in both White and Irving. Neither had strong field production, but their receiving advantage was key to this success, with both backs combining for over 100 receiving yards. Irving has upside in every format, but is especially strong in PPR.
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Jaxon Smith-Ngiba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Here’s the good news: Smith-Njigba has a chance to step in as the Seahawks’ WR1 if DK Metcalf can’t play in Week 8. The bad news is there’s no guarantee Smith-Njigba will see a significant increase in volume will see. Last week was a bad week for Geno Smith’s usual passing attempts. He usually throws well above 30, often above 40 and sometimes around 50, so the volume is usually there and has been fairly evenly distributed in recent weeks.
The bad news is that goals haven’t been the problem for Smith-Njigba. Metcalf is averaging 8.7 goals per game, Smith-Njigba is averaging 7.9 and Tyler Lockett is at 6.6. The next receiver, Jake Bobo, has an average of just 1.6. Despite the targeted volume, Smith-Njigba has only managed one top 12 finish, way back in Week 2, and hasn’t finished in the top 30 since. Touchdowns were lacking, with just one on the season.
In short, the opportunities were there, but he did not take them consistently.
Will Smith-Njigba to make or break your line-up in week 8?
This week’s game is against Buffalo. Buffalo’s defense has been more vulnerable on the ground than in the air, so from a game plan perspective the Seahawks will likely lean heavily on Kenneth Walker III instead of trying to attack Buffalo’s secondary. However, if the game turns into a shootout due to Seattle’s struggling defense, there is potential for more volume through the air, which could give JSN a path to more goals.
Even in a bad game, this is a high-ceiling week for Smith-Njigba.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Kmet doesn’t meet the injury qualification for the list, but no tight end better embodies the make-or-break player. Kmet will either end up as the overall TE1 or get you five fantasy points – there is no in between. Kmet’s boom games of 21 and 22 fantasy points came against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, two excellent matchups, but he also had two blindsided performances against Carolina and the LA Rams.
The problem is that the Bears offense has too many mouths to feed with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift. Kmet is obviously last in the pecking order, making him an extremely volatile asset. This week’s game against Washington is interesting. Earlier this season the Commanders were seen as an easy defense to exploit, but under their defensive head coach they are moving in the right direction.
Will Kmet to make or break your line-up in week 8?
On the surface, Washington is not a good fit for tight ends; they allow just 7.71 points per game to the position. However, when you look at the teams they have faced, those numbers start to make more sense. In Week 2 they faced the Giants, a team with no real threat at tight end. Other matchups included Cincinnati and Arizona with Trey McBride out. Their points allowed to tight ends can be a bit lopsided.
If you’re in a position this week where you need a high-upside play at tight end, Kmet could hit.
