Another week, another round of critically important starting/sitting decisions. To help you achieve this, here are six players with bust potential in Week 11.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation does not automatically mean you should draft a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins ​​is coming off a solid rebounding season from a torn Achilles tendon that ended his 2023 season. Through 10 weeks, he ranks as the fantasy QB10, third in passing yards (2,634) and tied for the fourth most passing touchdowns (17) – a great matchup so far with WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson in the passing game.
But his opponent this week, the Broncos, are tied for the third-lowest EPA per pass attempt (-0.21), while ranking fourth in the league with a 39.2% pressure rate and second highest sack total in the league (35). behind only the New York Giants. According to PFF, Cousins ​​has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate among QBs with 25+ pressure dropbacks this season at 7.3%, throwing for 5 TDs and 7 INTs on such plays.
Heat check 🔥 Kirk Cousins ​​belongs on most fantasy benches this week, outside of the two QB and Superflex leagues.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers play has come alive in recent weeks after a relatively slow start this season, thanks in large part to RB Najee Harris heating up (as is historically typical of him).
Unfortunately, there are some reasons to put the breaks on Harris’ positive side for fantasy heading into Week 11. Last week, he snapped a three-game streak of 100-plus rushing yards in Week 10 (the first streak of his career) against a Commander defense that has been fairly friendly on the run, averaging just 2.5 yards per attempt on 21 carries. Meanwhile, teammate Jaylen Warren saw 14 total carries – tied for the second-most he’s ever seen in a single game, still a week removed from a knee injury that has plagued him since Week 3.
This week, Harris will not only have to overcome questions about the workload distribution between him and Warren, but also face a challenging matchup against the Baltimore Ravens – one of the best defenses in the league through ten weeks of the season. The Ravens allow a league-low 3.4 rush yards per game, allowing the fewest runs of 10+ yards, giving up the fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.21), while third-lowest EPA per rush attempt is allowed -0.18.
Where the Ravens are most susceptible to opposing RBs this year is in the receiving game, as they have allowed the third-most receiving yards (470) at the position all season — fitting, as teams are often in the position to playing catch-up against the Ravens’ very potent offense. Even if the Steelers’ defense Lamar Jackson and Co. can delay, it’s a game script that could be in Warren’s favor. In Week 10, Warren ran 15 routes, while Harris ran just seven — a trend that will likely continue now that Warren is healthier.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Harris more of a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent fantasy asset this week than a must-start. Warren, meanwhile, deserves consideration as a flexible option, especially in full PPR scoring formats.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
It’s challenging to imagine a running back who has had 20 or more touches in three of his past five games and has scored in all but three games in 2024. Football managers should brace for a boom/bust performance that falls outside Cook’s usually safe floor.
In Week 11, the Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs, who were right next to the Ravens in their ability to close out the series this season. They are giving up a career-low 12.01 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. They are the only defense to give up fewer than 500 rushing yards to opponents, allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per rushing attempt (-0.16) and second-lowest yards per play average (3.7) . Against an equally skilled rushing defense in the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, the Bills were wildly out-rebounded, leaving Cook with just 48 yards on 10 total touches (0 TDs) for an RB44 finish on the day.
Heat check 🔥 Start Cook as the top pick in a very potent Bills offense that could put up a lot of points, but be wary that this could be an inefficient spot that could make him a rather volatile asset this week.
WR DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
I didn’t have to reach far for this Week 11 fade, but I felt it necessary to say this once: You are under no obligation to start DJ Moore (or any other Bears receiver) until this team has a has found some kind of identity. The team has officially moved on from former OC Shane Waldron, but it will likely take more than a new play-caller to undo the damage done and the regression the offense has undergone since the bye week.
Moore is a good wide receiver and many will feel enticed to start because of his name value, but he has failed to put up more than 33 receiving yards in each of his last four games and finished outside the top 50 in his position in each of the matches. those games. His floor is simply too low to be trusted in even the most dire situations. This week the Bears host the Green Bay Packers – a unit that ranks in the top-10 in average time to pressure and has been one of the most productive defenses when it comes to forcing turnovers (18 total per year) . This could be another ugly one for the entire Bears offense outside of RB D’Andre Swift.
Heat check 🔥 Doing. Not. Start. I beg you.
WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London has done well with new QB Kirk Cousins, ranking as the overall WR4 in fantasy through the first 10 weeks of the season, totaling the fifth-most receptions (58) and eighth-most receiving yards (649) while ranking third in the position in total touchdowns. That all sounds fine and dandy, until you put it up against the Denver Broncos’ vaunted defense, however. The biggest problem with that defense for London? All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Here’s a look at some of Surtain II’s advanced stats in coverage and where that ranks among the CBs playing at least 200 coverage snaps this season:
-
10% target percentage in coverage (second lowest)
-
0.6 yards per snap allowed (least draw)
-
-0.68 EPA per target (lowest)
-
57.5 NFL passer rating when targeted (fourth-lowest)
Simply put, Surtain isn’t often the target of coverage because he’s so efficient when opposing QBs try to make it happen. WRs DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson combined for just 15.6 fantasy points against this defense – thanks in large part to Surtain’s ability to shut down perimeter receivers.
Heat check 🔥 London isn’t a must-start in Week 11 if you have better options, though most rosters probably won’t have the luxury of slotting him. While Zay Flowers found some success against this defense in Week 10, most of that production came from the slot after playing a season-low 47.1% of snaps on the perimeter in that game. If London works mainly on the outside, he’s probably queuing for a quiet afternoon.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
There aren’t many tight ends you can afford to fade in any given week, but given the current state of Jacksonville’s offense, a warning about a potential dip in production for Evan Engram seems warranted. This week, they won’t be able to start quarterback Trevor Lawrence – he’s dealing with a shoulder injury – which means Mac Jones will be in charge and will once again take on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions allow the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback on slot + inline targets, giving up plenty of yardage in coverage of these parts of the field but scoring little (4 TD, 6 INT) in such coverage, which results in the second-fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing tight ends. They’ve only allowed one touchdown at the position all season, which doesn’t bode well for a passing offense that failed to record a single passing touchdown last week, as Jones totaled just 139 passing yards on 22 attempts while also throwing for two . interceptions.
Heat check 🔥 Considering Engram’s role in the offense as a primary target when Christian Kirk is out, you’ll be hard-pressed to find many options to choose over Engram in this economy. However, it could be a bumpy outing if Engram doesn’t see significant volume.
