Another week, another round of critically important starting/sitting decisions. To help you achieve this, here are six players with bust potential in Week 13.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation does not automatically mean you should draft a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Okay, okay. Listen to me.
This is not at all a call to get fantasy football’s overall QB1 this year – not by any stretch of the imagination. However, it is my duty as a regular busts and fades columnist to warn of potential landmines in your lineup – to not only warn you of players you should avoid entirely out of fantasy, but also to advise when the stats say that a player’s ceiling might be lower than usual. After all, that knowledge can change the way you approach the rest of your setup.
Lamar Jackson has had the safest floor of any fantasy quarterback this season; he’s finished outside the top 12 just once (Week 11 vs. Steelers) and has finished as a top-five QB in seven of 12 games this season — the perfect mix of upside and security at the position we’ve almost never seen . This week, Jackson will face a surging Eagles defense, which has made great strides in both their coverage and rush defense in the second half of the season.
Heat check 🔥 You still start Lamar Jackson in all your full-season fantasy lineups; brace yourself for a possible down week.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner’s fantasy managers have been on a wild ride so far this season, with his production falling somewhere between his 21-122-1 line in Week 2 and his 7 carry, 8 rushing-yard outing in Week 12. As I mentioned said – a roller coaster. However, it feels like the bad weeks are becoming more and more frequent. Over the past four games, he is averaging just over 50 rush yards per game (37.3 yards receiving). He averaged 3.53 yards per carry and a stuff rate of 22.8% during that span, which ranks sixth among the 26 RBs with 50+ carries from Week 8.
In addition to Conner’s declining efficiency in recent weeks, he has a challenging matchup on deck with the Minnesota Vikings – one of the most formidable rushing defenses in the league this season. The Vikings lead the league with a defense grade of 86.1 PFF, the fourth-lowest average tackle depth (3.41 yards) and lowest missed tackle rate in the league. Minnesota’s defense is tied for the most rush TDs allowed in the league this year, allowing the second-lowest YPC average (3.6), second-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2. 4) and the third-lowest explosive run rate (9.4%) possible. all adding up to the second-fewest fantasy PPG for opposing RBs.
Heat check 🔥 As a starting running back on a good (albeit inconsistent) offense, leaving Conner on the bench is a challenge. But with all 32 teams playing this week, you have more options than in Week 12. If you have better flex options (e.g. Bucky Irving), don’t hesitate to restart them over Conner. this week.
RB Jeremy McNichols, Washington Commanders
I have a feeling Jeremy McNichols will be on many sleeper lists this week as an ‘in case of emergency’ button. Commanders starting at RB Brian Robinson Jr. are dealing with a high ankle sprain, and his status is up in the air for Week 13. Meanwhile, teammate Austin Ekeler is in the concussion protocol after taking a brutal hit on a kickoff return in the same game. . Then McNichols, Mr. RB3, has to fill their shoes.
Even if McNichols gets the start in Week 13, he has a challenging matchup on the line against the Tennessee Titans, who have been a stout rushing defense this season. The Titans have the fourth-highest rated rushing defense unit this year, tied for the fifth-lowest YPC average allowed (4.0), the seventh-fewest rush yards after contact per attempt (2.7) with the fourth-fewest tackles for a loss or no gain in that period per PFF.
Heat check 🔥 McNichols will remain on fantasy benches in most fantasy leagues, even if he gets the start and will see volume.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington commanders
It’s no secret that the Kliff Kingsbury-led Washington Commanders offense has cooled since their red-hot start to the season. Terry McLaurin in particular has benefited greatly from the improved quarterback play. He’s performing as well as the overall WR5 in half-PPR scoring formats, averaging a career-best 15.8 YPR while already matching his previous career high of seven receiving touchdowns in just 12 games. .
The Titans allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, yet still give up a single game of 18+ fantasy points to all opponents this year despite facing stiff competition (Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson). This team is allowing the league’s third-lowest successful play percentage on targets to WRs this season at 45.7% per NFL Next Gen Stats, with the fourth-fewest yards per target and fifth-lowest completion percentage on such playing the entire season is given up. (59%).
Heat check 🔥 Insert McLaurin into your Week 13 lineups, but with the expectation that the best bet for a big fantasy day is another 86-yard home run to save the day.
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
There’s no doubt that Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir is one of the safest targets in the league this year. He’s had reliable hands for days with an 87.5% catch rate dating back to last season that leads all WRs (min. 50 targets, including postseason). He is also incredibly efficient with his opportunities and has a passer rating of 124.5 when targeted (third highest), while averaging 7.7 yards after the catch per reception (fourth highest). Week 13, however, could challenge his usually safe floor.
Shakir’s consistent volume (7+ targets in each of the past five games) has made him a popular flex/sleeper option on any given week. However, the San Francisco 49ers could be a limiting factor for him in Week 13, even if there are some open targets at center due to the absence of an injured Dalton Kincaid. While the Niners are a bit of a dumpster fire right now, LB Fred Warner remains the glue that holds their coverage together in the middle of the field. Warner continues his reputation as one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, and he is very much a limited receiver. Dating back to Week 7, the 49ers are allowing the second-lowest EPA per game on slot targets (-0.176), giving up 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and a league-low passer rating of 46.3 on such plays. Shakir, who has been operating primarily off the field at a 75.8% clip this season, could see a dip in his efficiency in this spot.
Heat check 🔥 Shakir is a fine substitute for the bye week, but with all 32 teams in the mix his ceiling isn’t high enough to risk a bad week in a challenging match.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off Week 12, which means TE Evan Engram is freshly rested and ready to take on all the work he can handle. There should be plenty of work in store for him this week as the team received even more bad injury news ahead of their bye, losing WR Gabe Davis for the season with a knee injury after already missing Christian Kirk (also out for the season with an injury). broken collarbone). Even if he sees decent volume, it might not be a great fit for a big fantasy day.
In Week 13, the Jaguars have a challenging intradivision matchup with the Houston Texans – a matchup that has led to disappointing TE performances even for the league’s best. Houston ranks 27th with 7.51 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs (3.3-25.5-0.4 average line), while averaging the third-lowest EPA per dropback and a league-leading 39.1% success rate on targets for the TE position per NFL Next Generation Stats.
Heat check 🔥 Engram should have a solid bottom in half and full PPR scoring formats due to the need for target volume, but don’t expect great efficiency. This defense has only allowed three TEs to surpass the 50 receiving yard mark all season.
