It’s time to do a rookie check-in! As we head into the fantasy football playoffs, let’s take a look at recent performances, the outlook for the rest of the season, and the outlook for 2025 for the key rookies.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
After a hot start to the season, Daniels cooled off, leaving fantasy managers concerned that Daniels’ early-season production was the fluke of easier matchups. I discussed Daniels’ prospects for the remainder of the season on “Fantasy Football Live” a few weeks ago and defended Daniels’ drop in production as a bit of an overreaction from fantasy managers.
Fantasy managers understandably panicked after Daniels had two disappointing performances against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. While those games were concerning, Daniels finished outside the top 12 at quarterback just three times this season (excluding the rib injury game). For perspective, Daniels’ production isn’t that different from a player like Joe Burrow, who has finished outside the top 12 four times but offers a winning week ahead with a typical borderline QB1 floor.
Pulse check: Is Daniels a set-it-and-forget-it ROS?
Daniels had another top performance in Week 13, with an incredibly efficient day of 25 completions on 30 attempts for 206 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception and a rushing touchdown – back-to-back overall QB1 performances.
Looking at his schedule for the remainder of the season after the bye week, two of the Commanders’ final fantasy matchups are highly favorable, with only one tough matchup against Philadelphia. Daniels maintains his top-five ranking and is a luxury start for fantasy managers.
Bonus Pulse Check – Daniels’ 2025 Outlook!
Looking beyond this season and into 2024, given his rushing lead and a lock-in elite WR1 in Terry McLaurin, Daniels will likely be a top-five draft pick at the position in 2025.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears were a tale of two halves in the Thanksgiving game against Detroit. After a terrible first half, Caleb Williams left and finished with 256 passing yards, three touchdowns (two against Keenan Allen) and 39 rushing yards.
Williams now has two QB1 appearances under his belt, very impressive considering Williams has been through a lot in recent weeks. The Bears are on a six-game losing streak and it has been a tough defensive stretch against some of the best defenses in the league. Despite all these challenges, Williams has done as well as you could ask for. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6. His accuracy has been a bit suspect, but understandable given the offensive line’s issues, and he’s finally managed to get back on track with five passing touchdowns over the past two games while also adding some quick upside.
Pulse check: Can we finally trust Caleb Williams?
The prospects for the rest of Williams’ season are interesting. He faces San Francisco’s defense, which is typically stout against the pass but has struggled with injuries. He’ll then take on Minnesota and Detroit – the two teams he just had strong performances against – before ending a week 17 friendly against Seattle. Looking at Williams’ season as a whole and given the coaching issues, he hasn’t had any major or alarming warning signs. He excelled in easy matchups, struggled in tough matchups and showed improvement and resilience in tougher matchups down the stretch, providing volume through the air and a bit of unexpected running uphill. He looks like a solid streaming option for the rest of the season.
Bonus Pulse Check – Williams’ 2025 Outlook!
Looking at Williams in 2025 is a bit difficult because he will have a new head coach and offensive coordinator and could have changes in the surrounding weapons, especially with Keenan Allen in the final year of his current contract. Unlike Daniels, who will likely lean toward that aggressive draft trajectory, Williams will likely remain in a similar location into 2024 as a borderline QB1 with upside.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams isn’t the only Bears rookie whose late-season trajectory we’re keeping an eye on. Regardless of Williams’ performance, Odunze has remained fairly inconsistent in a crowded receiving corps.
He only has one touchdown all year, with mixed targets and inconsistent yardage. Just when we think Odunze is on the verge of a possible second-half breakout, he falls back into the third option within the receiving corps with limited upside.
Pulse check: Can Odunze ascend to WR1 in the Bears’ offense?
It’s hard to trust Odunze for the rest of the season. We’ve had subtle signs that he could move forward, but DJ Moore remains the only truly reliable option and Allen remains a crucial part of the Bears offense. There is simply no room for Odunze to move up and he remains a volatile, low-end flex option.
Bonus pulse check – Odunze’s prospects for 2025!
As previously mentioned, the Bears could acquire Keenan Allen, allowing Odunze to play a more prominent role. While Williams’ prospects for the remainder of the season remain fairly positive, it is difficult to see where Odunze offers breakthrough potential. Look at 2025 as the actual breakout for him.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Like the Bears, the Giants are in a constant fluctuation position, but much more drastically because we really don’t know the future of their quarterback situation, leaving numerous questions.
Through Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock, one thing remains constant: Nabers is a target hog and has a stable floor based on pure volume. He’s averaging more than 10 goals per game this season and changes at quarterback haven’t had any impact on that baseline. The problem is that Nabers hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 3, and while his targets remain excellent, his yardage baseline remains around 50-70. Matchup has no effect on this statistic. It’s a real shame because Nabers’ schedule for the rest of the season is excellent.
Pulse check: Should we panic about the rest of Nabers’ season?
Based on pure volume, we will continue to start Nabers because we know he won’t destroy our week and the matchups are excellent. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see significant upside given the team and quarterback situation.
Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants
Running backs often suffer downgrades at quarterbacks and Tracy is a prime example of that trajectory. However, that wasn’t the only challenge Tracy faced. Starting in week 10, Tracy suffered a minor fumbling issue and head coach Brian Daboll’s tolerance level was fairly low and we saw Devin Singletary with a slight increase in workload.
Pulse check: Is it time to save Tracy?
Tracy managed to keep the ball in Week 13, but there are still volume concerns and he has had just nine carries in each of the past two games. Since Tracy still serves as a lead back and appears to have a goal-line preference, he remains a borderline RB2. While the upcoming schedule favors friendlier matchups against the pass, it is a bit volatile against the run.
Bonus Pulse Check – Nabers and Tracy’s Outlook for 2025!
Looking ahead to 2025, there is no doubt about Nabers and his upside over what should be a brand new starting quarterback like Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.
The Giants’ moves this offseason will likely determine Tracy’s future in 2025. Tracy was a fifth-round draft pick, and fantasy managers are well aware of the volatility that comes with late-round running backs and job security. Tracy has a chance to secure his role for 2025 by finishing the 2024 season strong; however, given the team and quarterback situation, he faces an uphill battle.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR, Arizona Cardinals
Week 13 was interesting: five receptions on 12 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in what could be a tough matchup. With Kyler Murray having another confusing day, it’s easy to make excuses for Harrison Jr.’s performance. this season, but the numbers are pretty clear.
Unless he starts late in the season, we’re looking at a sub-60 reception season supported by big plays and touchdowns. Trey McBride continues to dominate receptions, targets and volume in this offense and there is a clear cut with volume being pushed to McBride and touchdowns being pushed to Harrison Jr.
Pulse check: What is the level of confidence in the further development of MHJ?
The schedule may be the only saving grace for Harrison Jr. It’s hard to imagine a change in the Cardinals’ offensive philosophy, but given the friendly nature of the upcoming schedule, we remain optimistic about the potential upside for Harrison Jr.
Bonus pulse check – MHJ’s outlook for 2025!
The prospect of 2025 is special. On the one hand, the market will react aggressively to the hyped 2024 ADP, likely seeing an increase in declining value, leaving Harrison Jr. would become an attractive draft pick in terms of value. On the other hand, we’re probably not looking at any major changes to the Cardinals’ offense in the future. Murray is under contract and no coaching changes are allowed. Maybe the Cardinals will learn to move on from Harrison Jr. better use in the future. It remains to be seen if this is the right coaching staff and quarterback to really help him thrive.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Evaluating Drake Maye’s performance, the prospects for the rest of the season and looking ahead to 2025 is actually incredibly fun! Make no mistake: Maye has been messy. Ten touchdowns, seven interceptions and five fumbles are absolute proof of that.
However, the Patriots are messier.
They’re young, they don’t have an established receiving corps, their offensive line is extremely shaky, and their defense is dealing with significant injuries. There wasn’t much to expect, but what we’ve seen from Drake so far is very impressive.
Pulse check: Should we trust Maye as a QB1 moving forward?
Maye is the perfect blend of fantasy upside. He’s got the big arm and high-volume potential, plus strong rushing upside — he’s on pace to set the NFL record for average per rush by a QB. Maye has a bye in Week 14 and unfortunately ends the season with a tough schedule, where he will have to rely on his legs for any fantasy advantage. As such, Maye doesn’t have much relevance outside of Superflex leagues.
Bonus Pulse Check – Maye’s 2025 Outlook!
Unlike Caleb Williams, who will face the challenges of a new coaching system, Maye will remain in the same system. It’s just a matter of surrounding him with talent that can help him flourish. The Patriots will likely spend their free agency and draft season investing in pieces around Maye, improving the offensive line and finding a true WR1. If the Patriots manage to have a strong offseason, fantasy managers could look at Maye as a QB2 pick with extremely high upside and potential as a late draft steal for those willing to wait for the quarterback.
Keep an eye on Maye as one of the potential league-winning picks of 2025.
