Quarterback
Start: Cooper Rush, Cowboys
Is Cooper almost good? Of course not. Does that matter? Just a little bit. The Cowboys have given Rush a chance over the last two weeks with a success rate +6% above expectations.
Rush has 601 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Vegas normally wouldn’t buy high on a backup quarterback after a single win, but the Cowboys face a collapsing Giants defense with its own backup quarterback on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are favorites by 3.5 points and an implied team total of 20.25. That’s ahead of the Bears on Thursday and the Raiders on… Friday. We’re doing Friday football now, really? Rush is a viable QB2 with sneaky potential in DFS.
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Sits: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
I don’t know who the Giants’ quarterback is and it felt too easy to take the quarterback with the second-lowest team total on Thanksgiving (Caleb Williams). Tua isn’t completely gone this week, but it’s a tough spot for the Miami signal caller. The Packers rank eighth in the EPA per dropback allowed and have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are road underdogs, with a team total of just 1.5 points ahead of Rush’s Cowboys. The game total is also down slightly, possibly due to the temperature, which will be in the 20s around kickoff.
Tagovailoa has reported horrific numbers outside the sweltering heat of Miami. In games with a temperature of 55 or lower at kickoff, Tua has averaged 219 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the past three seasons, good for a paltry 13.7 fantasy points.
Run back
Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Dowdle completed taking over the Dallas backfield last week with a season-high 70 percent of the Cowboys’ carries. He matched his season high in touches (22) and collected 98 yards from scrimmage. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and rank 27th in the EPA per rush attempt allowed.
Incumbent: D’Andre Swift, Bears
Like most running backs, Swift does better when his team wins. Unlike some running backs, he doesn’t have the role or efficiency to survive most of Chicago’s losses. Swift goes from RB3 numbers in losses to quality RB1 production in the Bears’ rare wins.
As 10-point underdogs this week, a Bears win is as unlikely as they come. Swift has also ceded the goal-line role to Roschon Johnson, making touchdowns even harder to come by.
Wide receiver
Start: Jameson Williams, Lions
The Bears are a great defense overall, but their inability to prevent big wins has been a glaring leak in the unit this year. Chicago ranks 32nd in explosive success rate allowed (16.8 percent) and 27th in YPA on deep throws. Williams has seen 37 percent of the Lions’ big goals despite missing two games. He leads the team with 161 yards and two scores on deep shots.
Incumbent: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
A second edition of the Week 13 Start Sits will be released on Friday before Sunday’s games, but we can talk about the Black Friday showdown between the Chiefs and Raiders here. There are no Chiefs wide receivers playable. DeAndre Hopkins routed on 45 percent of the team’s dropbacks last week and has had a route percentage below 50 percent the past two weeks. He has ten targets in the past two games and a target share of 15 percent since joining the Chiefs.
Tight end
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
Smith leads the Dolphins with 22 percent target share since the team’s bye in Week 6. His 25 percent target share on first read is also a boost for the team. He ranks fourth in yards per route and fifth in ESPN’s open scoring among tight ends. Even if Tua struggles, Smith has played well enough and gets the ball often enough to get home against a Packers defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year.
Seated: Sam LaPorta, Lions
LaPorta’s role seemed to be heading in the right direction before a shoulder injury sidelined him in Week 11. In the next match, he returned to the small-sided appearance he has played for most of this season, earning five goals with a target share of 16 percent. LaPorta is nothing more than a TE2 for Week 13.
