Set your fantasy football lineups for Week 14 with Dalton Del Don’s key starting/sitting advice for every game on the line.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Start: Jonnu Smith
Smith leads the Dolphins in target share (21.5%), first-read share (26.3%) and designed targets since Miami’s Week 6 bye. He leads all pass catchers in first downs per route run over that period. He has been fantasy’s TE1 for the past three weeks, and Smith should be busy on Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Sam Darnold
Darnold has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his past six games. He gets a Falcons defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with an NFL-low 15 sacks this season. Minnesota has a healthy implied team total of 26.5 points in this fast-paced game, and the Vikings have struggled to rush to the goal line. Darnold is a top-10 QB this week.
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New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
Start: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tracy Jr. lost some touches last week, but he rebounded with a 71% snap share, including a goal-line score (a week after losing snaps on fumbles). The rookie gets 5.0 YPC and he has been fantasy’s RB16 since Week 8. The game script should remain manageable against a depleted New Orleans team, and Tracy Jr. could see extra work with Malik Nabers dealing with a groin injury. Saints opponents have the fourth lowest success rate above expectations in the past month, so Tracy Jr. is in the top 20 this week.
Carolina Panthers @Philadelphia Eagles
Seat: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard still saw a 79% snap share last week, but he lost 9 of 21 RB opportunities. Hubbard’s 67% rush share was his lowest since Week 2, as rookie Jonathon Brooks saw more work in his second game back from injury. Facing the league’s best defense is an even bigger concern this week. The Eagles have given up just 241 yards per game over the past two months, which is more than 65 yards shy of the next best.
Philadelphia hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for 100 yards all season, and the Eagles just kept Derrick Henry out of the end zone last week. The Panthers have an implied team total of 16.5 points in the league and are 13-point underdogs, so the game script will be a challenge. Hubbard is the RB22 in the ‘consensus expert ranks’ and could admittedly be needed for a week with six byes. But if possible, look for alternatives.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sits: Nick Chubb
Chubb has scored three touchdowns over the last two games, but he finished last week with a season-high nine rushing attempts, the same as Jerome Ford. Chubb has run just 20% of routes since Ford returned four games ago, and he’s playing in a Cleveland offense with a higher-than-expected success rate with Jameis Winston starting. Chubb has averaged an anemic 3.0 YPC since returning from another multi-ligament surgery, and he gets a stout Pittsburgh defense allowing the second-fewest scheduled adjusted fantasy points for RBs over the past five weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Start: Cade Oton
Otton has been quieter in the last two games, but Sunday could be busier. Mike Evans missed Thursday’s practice with hamstring and calf injuries, so he could be limited if he’s able to get started at all this week. Otton was the TE25 (5.9 fantasy points per game) this season when playing with Evans, but he was the TE1 by a mile (16.1 fpg) without him (h/t FTN).
Rising star Bucky Irving also missed practice Thursday, and while he returned Friday, it remains to be seen if he’ll be limited at all in Week 14. Chris Godwin remains on IR, so Oton should see good volume against a Raiders’ defense is torn apart by tight ends; Opposing TEs have averaged 8.6 catches, 101.2 receiving yards and 1.2 TDs over the last five games against Las Vegas. The Raiders opponents have by far the highest PROE over the past month. Boost Oton in fantasy lineups this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Start: Calvin Ridley
Ridley leads the NFL in air yards (776) and has averaged 8.5 targets and 82.7 receiving yards in six games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. Will Levis has put up 8.3 YPA while averaging 240.0 passing yards and 1.8 TDs over four games since returning from injury, so Tennessee’s passing offense has life.
Ridley gets a very favorable matchup this week in a revenge game against Jacksonville’s worst pass defense in the league, allowing the third-most fantasy points to go to wide receivers. Ridley’s target rate increases from 18.2% versus zone to 27.9% against man coverage, which the Jaguars have used at the second-highest rate in the league. Ridley is a borderline top-10 WR this week.
Sit Tank Bigsbywho lost 16 of 24 RB opportunities to a now healthier Travis Etienne coming off of Jacksonville’s bye last week. The Jaguars have the second-lowest implied team total this week (18.5 points), with Mac Jones starting.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Sits: Geno Smith
Smith is third in the league in passing yards per game (270.1), but he has just two multiple passing TD games all season. DK Metcalf missed practice on Thursday with a shoulder injury, so he could be missing or limited on Sunday. Additionally, the Cardinals have fielded one of the league’s most improved defenses of late (along with Seattle’s).
Arizona has yielded just four total touchdowns to quarterbacks in the past six games and the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs in the past five. These teams combined to score just 22 points when they met just two weeks ago, and another lower-scoring, slow game could be in store on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills @Los Angeles Rams
Start: Khalil Shakir
Shakir saw seven targets last week, but that actually marked a season high in target share, with Josh Allen attempting just 17 passes in a blizzard. There should be more volume on Sunday in an indoor matchup with the weekend’s highest total (49.5 points). Shakir ranks eighth in target share (29.1%) and 10th in yards per route (2.51) this season. His target percentage increases from 18.3% against man to 29.5% versus zone coverage, which the Rams have used at the fourth-highest rate in the league this season (77.1%). He also ranks top 15 out of 131 WRs in fantasy points per route run (0.50) versus zone. A healthy Rams offense could push Buffalo, so start with Shakir this week.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Start: Isaac Guerendo
Guerendo suddenly went from waiver wires to a top-10 fantasy this week after Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason went down with season-ending injuries. Guerendo finished fourth in the YPC this season (5.9) and has fresh legs. The rookie needs to work on his vision and is far from a complete back, but while Mason may be the slowest RB in the league, Guerendo may be the fastest (which gives him more imagination).
The Bears have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but Chicago has given up the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FP over the past five games to RBs. The 49ers offense isn’t the same without Trent Williams and a banged-up Brock Purdy, but San Francisco has a healthy implied team total (24.5 points) and should have a favorable game script as four-point favorites. Patrick Taylor will also see work, but Guerendo belongs in fantasy lineups.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sits: Justin Herbert
The Chiefs’ pass defense has taken a step back lately, but Herbert could still find himself in a tough spot on Sunday night. Ladd McConkey looks questionable with shoulder and knee injuries, and his absence would be more felt against a man-heavy KC defense. Herbert recorded five sacks on just 23 pass attempts against an Atlanta defense that came in with a low sack total of 10, mainly because no other receivers could get open last week.
Additionally, Herbert has gotten 8.4 YPA with a Passer Rating of 106.9 versus zone coverage, but he has only gotten 6.2 YPA with a Passer Rating of 76.9 against man, which Kansas City uses at one of the highest rates in the competition. The Chargers have one of the lowest implied team totals this week (20.5 points), and fantasy managers starting Herbert are hoping McConkey can move on.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Start: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle saw 25 of 29 RB opportunities last week and posted career highs in snap share (71%), carries (22) and rush yards (112). He has an 8.2 usage rating over the past two weeks, which is historically borderline RB1 territory. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most EPA/rush and fifth-most RB touchdowns this season, and Dowdle should see a heavy workload with CeeDee Lamb getting fouled. He’s a top-15 RB this week.
