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Fantasy Football: What’s next for the biggest disappointments from the 2024 NFL rookie class?

If you’re relatively new to fantasy football (let’s say you started playing within the last decade) you might not realize that there was a time when rookies weren’t expected to be great right away.

Nowadays, of course, it’s a given that one or more freshman quarterbacks will reinvent the game in fantastic and previously unimaginable ways. Plus, the NFL delivers a new version of Puka Nacua or Brian Thomas Jr. almost every season. And rookie tight ends now usually finish at or near the top of the leaderboard.

Again, it wasn’t always this way.

Incredibly, we tolerated multi-year developmental arcs for almost everyone. We were dangerously naive and recklessly patient. We didn’t yet understand that every 22-year-old had to bully the league as soon as he arrived.

Moreover, we have not previously recognized the urgency with which fantasy analysts simply operate must delivering torrid and inflexible versions of the NFL’s youngest players. It was a less enlightened era.

In another era, we might have foolishly held out hope for the three players discussed below, who are surely doomed after imperfect first seasons…

At the age of 22, Harrison Jr. delivered. Completing 62 receptions for 885 yards and eight scores, finishing as a playable, if not spectacular, fantasy WR3. Fifteen years ago, we might have been heartened by his first NFL season.

Of course, it’s also true that 15 years ago there was zero chance a rookie receiver would have found his way into Harrison’s ADP range (18.3, WR9), so his performance wouldn’t have been considered a fantasy disaster.

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MHJ didn’t separate at an elite level as a rookie — this is supported by both his tape and his tracking data — but his best moments were pretty impressive:

Arizona certainly didn’t give him many layups last season (14.2 ADOT), making him a volatile receiver tied to an extremely volatile quarterback.

If his usage remains about the same in his second season, he should move up a level in terms of ball tracking ability and success on contested catches. As a rookie, he legitimately didn’t play enough on catchable yet difficult opportunities; according to PFF, he scored just 16 of 38 contested chances (42.1%). It’s fair to acknowledge that he didn’t play with his size (6-foot-1) and athleticism.

The nice thing about Harrison in 2025 is that you don’t have to draft him in an absurd neighborhood that absolutely represents his best possible outcome. He certainly won’t be the first receiver from his draft class to step off the board. MHJ will be about three levels behind Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey and Thomas.

Realistically, Harrison should probably be moved around this next receiver, who shared a few of his freshman year shortcomings…

Unlike Harrison, Odunze did not step into a situation where he was guaranteed a significant target volume. Instead, he shared a receiving room with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore, two veteran vets with a combined 10 individual 1,000-yard seasons. There was never an easy or realistic path for Odunze to break out as a rookie. Still, he ended up putting up a perfectly respectable 54 catches for 734 yards on 101 targets, with a few 100-yard performances along the way.

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However, Odunze’s season was wildly uneven and he was only occasionally in sync with his quarterback – a problem that became comically apparent when the Bears took shots down the field. Odunze led the team in deep targets (24), but he only caught four, none of which resulted in touchdowns. Just terrible non-production for which he is only partly responsible. We know he doesn’t lack deep ball ability; he averaged 17.8 yards per catch in his final collegiate season at Washington while leading the nation in receiving yards.

Allen is moving to free agency and likely won’t return to Chicago (although the team has nearly $70 million in cap space), so Odunze should expect a serious increase in workload. That’s the first good news.

The second big news item that hits Odunze is of course the arrival of this gentleman…

Ben Johnson was clearly the most exciting and innovative offensive coaching candidate in this year’s hiring cycle, and there’s no arguing with his track record (or his guile).

Detroit’s offense has ranked in the top five in both yardage and scoring over the past three seasons with Johnson as OC. He had multiple coaching options to choose from this offseason, landing in Chicago within 48 hours of the Lions’ divisional round loss. It signals a high level of enthusiasm for the team’s offensive core, including the 23-year-old quarterback…

Look, if you think Ben Johnson is only equipped to coach an offense with a Goffbot as QB, then you probably rolled your eyes at the hire. Williams has done some of his absolute best work in improv situations this season, often on the run, rarely in a Jared Goff-esque manner.

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But let’s entertain the possibility that Johnson — an obviously creative play designer — could come up with some nice things for a less refined and less experienced quarterback with a richer skill set.

Williams struggled with accuracy in his first season, but that doesn’t mean he was a scattershot passer. Instead, he was inaccurate in a very specific and consistent way, always dodging trouble – next to his targets on breakout routes, sailing deep shots and rarely risking a turnaround. He threw just six interceptions on the year, but also only 20 touchdown passes. Chicago’s offense could have used a few more contested opportunities. Williams was particularly brutal on deep attempts, completing just 20 of 75 throws (26.7%) with an atrocious 59.6 passer rating.

Fortunately, we have multiple collegiate seasons from Williams, indicating that he can in fact deliver an excellent deep ball. There is no reason to believe that his problems on the field are unsolvable. He needs the incoming play caller to give him permission to compromise the ball when receivers are in favorable coverage situations. He’ll also need easy answers to the pressure, which didn’t always exist in Chicago’s 2024 offense.

And if the front office wouldn’t mind devoting some of their cap space to the inside O-line, that would be ideal. If Williams is sacked another 60 times in 2025, it will be a civil scandal and a crime against football.

We should note that Williams has somehow run for 489 yards without a touchdown this season, so he also offers an unrealized advantage. He essentially has all the tools we look for in a potential breakout QB, and his team context improved dramatically before Free Agency and the NFL Draft.

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