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Flyers playoff scenarios: How Philly can still make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2024

Flyers playoff scenarios: How Philly can still make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2024 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

VOORHEES, NJ — The final game of the regular season will hold a lot of significance for the Flyers.

But other games are also important if the rebuilding Flyers want to make the playoffs.

The Flyers host the Capitals on Tuesday in the each-club regular-season finale (7 p.m. ET/NBCSP). Two days ago, on a busy Saturday in the race, the Flyers learned they could not finish in third place in the Metropolitan Division.

The Islanders are in third place and have a 90 percent chance of fending off the Capitals and Penguins to finish there, according to MoneyPuck.com.

So the Flyers are competing against three other teams for the second and final wild card spot of the Eastern Conference. These three teams – the Capitals, Red Wings and Penguins – all play Monday night to overtake the Flyers in games played.

The Flyers, Capitals and Red Wings have 87 points, while the Penguins have 86 points.

The Flyers enter Monday with an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to MoneyPuck.com, and a 3.5 percent chance, according to Hockey-Reference.com.

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First, let’s take a look at the schedule for the next three days for all four teams:

Monday

WSH vs. BOS – 7:00 PM ET
DET vs. MTL — 7:00 PM ET
PIT vs. NSH – 7:00 PM ET

Tuesday

PHI vs. WSH – 7:00 PM ET
DET on MTL – 7:00 PM ET

Wednesday

PIT on NYI – 7pm ET

That’s scoreboard watching for the Flyers.

“There are so many different scenarios and we still have games to play tonight,” head coach John Tortorella said after practice on Monday. “People tell me what’s going on. I’m not there on my phone. What happens, happens. I know how we prepare for our match, so there’s no feeling of getting too caught up in the other things .We have to take good care of our things.”

There is no scenario in which the Flyers can lose on Tuesday and still make the playoffs. They have to win and also get help. That said, here’s what the Flyers need from each team to clinch the second wild card spot.

Lots of Flyers-Capitals tiebreakers to sort out

Even if Washington wins tonight, the Flyers can still pass the Capitals. Both teams are tied in three tiebreakers: regular wins (30), regular wins/overtime (34) and overall wins (38).

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If Washington beats Boston in regulation, the Flyers should beat the Capitals in regulation. If Washington beats Boston in overtime or in the shootout, the Flyers would be fine if they beat the Capitals in regulation or overtime.

Because the final tiebreaker for the Flyers and Capitals could come down to more points in the head-to-head series or goal difference for the entire regular season. The Flyers and Capitals split their first two meetings. The Flyers won in a shootout, so they have two points compared to Washington’s three.

If the Flyers beat the Capitals after regulation, leaving both teams with the same amount of points in the head-to-head series, the Flyers should finish with a better goal difference. The Flyers enter Monday at minus 25 and the Capitals minus 40.

If Washington earns one or no points tonight, the Flyers can beat the Capitals any which way and finish ahead of them.

Red Wings need to lose at least once

Even if the Flyers win on Tuesday, they can’t make the playoffs if Detroit wins its final two games against the Canadiens or picks up three points. If the Red Wings went 2-0-0 or 1-0-1, the Flyers would be eliminated.

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If Detroit were to take just two points in the final two games (one win or two losses after regular regulation), the Flyers would retain the tiebreaker on regular-season wins.

Penguins can have two tiebreakers versus Flyers

Even if the Flyers win on Tuesday, they can’t make the playoffs if Pittsburgh wins its final two games or picks up three points via a win in regulation time or overtime and a loss in regulation time.

In a scenario where the Penguins earn three points via a win in regulation or overtime and a loss in regulation, they would own the tiebreakers over the Flyers in regulation wins and regulation/overtime.

If Pittsburgh were to pick up three points via a shootout win and a loss in regular regulation, the Flyers would have to beat the Capitals in regular regulation to win the Penguins tiebreaker. Both teams would finish tied in regular-season wins and regular-season/overtime wins. The next tiebreaker would be overall wins and the Flyers would have one more.

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