The postseason is quickly approaching, clearing the picture for teams with a chance to make the playoffs in the final month of the season. This week’s Four Verts start with a team that has, perhaps unsurprisingly, quickly fallen down the standings after a month-long skid.
Falcons who screw up the division race are peak Falcons
Naturally. It was never going to be easy. After a 6-3 start with a stranglehold on the NFC South, the Falcons’ season came to a screeching halt with a four-game losing streak that left them at 6-7 and currently out of the playoffs. Calamity clings to this team like a disease, and the last bout with the disease ended with a 21-point fourth-quarter loss to the Minnesota Vikings in a 42-21 road loss. The investment in Kirk Cousins quickly turned from a great move that stabilized the franchise into a disaster that already put his future with the team in doubt.
Nothing is really working with this team right now. The Falcons’ offensive efficiency isn’t where it was when they were winning games earlier this season, they stink in the red zone and the defense is, well, still a Falcons defense. Atlanta is able to put together long areas of competency outside of the Broncos game. They move the ball well between the 20s and have a good offensive line, paired with a very good running back duo in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The framework of a good team is there, but the content is not. As the season has progressed, Cousins’ lack of mobility has become a huge strain on an offense that feels like it’s running out of answers.
The Falcons don’t really have anything on their call sheet that a defense can highlight despite having one of the best rushing games in the league. According to TruMedia, they have the least play-action in the league (7.9%) and have made 0.4% of their dropbacks this season, good for 31st. Their passing game consists solely of Cousins dropping back and darting into defense while his feet are glued to the pocket. An offense that can’t get the quarterback moving is going to be hard to defend for that long, unless they’re like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Cousins has become a revenue machine as margins tighten.
With Atlanta watching the playoffs from the outside in, the future of the franchise will undoubtedly become a topic. The Falcons made a controversial move to sign quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in April. out of the University of Washington with the eighth pick, and they were ready to bench him for multiple seasons if the situation allowed. Well, that probably won’t be the case if Cousins is the main reason why they miss the end of the season and miss the playoffs.
It wasn’t all bad, but there was no way the 6-3 Falcons were going to leave the season unscathed. As usual, they stumbled and fell on their faces and now have to fight for their lives to save the season. In some ways, this is why, mentally, Cousins was the perfect quarterback to take over the Falcons. Just enough to keep people intrigued and engaged, but ultimately not quite what people need.
The Bears had four yards of offense in one half
At some point, the Bears will no longer be the focus of this column, but today is just not that day. The latest Bears blunder came in Thomas Brown’s first game as interim head coach during their 38-13 loss to the 49ers. Brown’s meteoric rise from passing game coordinator, offensive coordinator, and interim head coach may have been a little too much too soon, but there’s really no excuse for what the Bears “did” in the first half of their game against the 49ers.
Four meters. Four yards is all the Bears could get in two full quarters of football. They had 2 yards on 14 plays (0.1 yards per play) entering their final drive. They gained 8 yards on the first two plays of their final drive before Caleb Williams was sacked for a loss on third down. Four meters. Football in 30 minutes! That’s 0.2 yards per play, -0.3 net yards per pass attempt, 0% rushing success rate, 30.8% sack rate, and 0% on third down in the first half. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Bears’ four yards in the first half were the fewest of any team since the 2000 season. They also led by 315 yards in the first half, also the worst since 2000. Yep!
The score was 24-0, but somehow it felt significantly worse than that. They simply didn’t have a chance due to a series of mistakes and sloppy play that made the feeling of the match over before the first quarter was over. This team doesn’t feel like they should be this bad, but they are, putting the Bears in a dangerous situation as this season thankfully comes to an end. They were just one play away from being 5-2 before the infamous Hail Mary attempt in Washington, but are now 4-9 with a new coaching staff guaranteed to come in. That’s unfortunate for Brown, who has had some nice moments as a play-caller in the NFL, but the game is the game.
Oh well. Maybe next year. At least make sure you look competent before the end of the season because they have the skills to do it. Or maybe not, and this is what the Bears are always destined to be.
OK. Let me start by saying this: I’m not tired of Kansas City. I really enjoy that the NFL has a team and quarterback of this caliber who are always at the forefront of league-wide relevance. It doesn’t bother me that they’re 12-1, or that they’re representing the AFC in the Super Bowl again. Dominance can be captivating, especially when the quarterback is backed up by Patrick Mahomes. However, there needs to be a discussion about what the heck happens at the end of some of these recent games – the future of the universe may be at stake.
When the Chiefs beat the Broncos on a blocked field goal, it was easy to chalk it up to the “same old Chiefs.” Luck plays a big role in winning, so even teams that we know are great will be pretty confident with moments of luck. It happens. It takes luck to win all these games by one score, and this was another one of those moments.
Then the Black Friday game against the Raiders. The Chiefs were in a dogfight against one of the worst teams in the league, Brock Bowers looked like the next Tony Gonzalez, and the Raiders had a chance to win at the end of the game. As the Raiders positioned themselves within field goal range, they simply forgot how to act as a real offense and ended up fumbling the ball and ending the game without getting a chance to kick. Okay, that’s a little weird, but it’s the Raiders, right? They do stupid things all the time, and maybe the Chiefs just got lucky with a terribly incompetent opponent.
However, what happened against the Chargers can only be described as divine intervention. Any idea of the final play of the game to win? A downer win? Now we have to investigate, because That was a bridge too far. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Chiefs have sold whatever remains of their souls to a demonic force – and possibly sacrificed the rest of the world to do so.
Sure, you can point to Mahomes or high ratings in various offensive metrics to explain the record so far, but it doesn’t explain those specific endings. Only invisible forces could make all this happen in such a short time. This is a good time to make sure you’re right, whatever higher or lower power you believe in, in case the rapture begins in New Orleans after the upcoming Super Bowl. You have been warned. Don’t be unprepared for the beginning of the end.
Seattle’s defense raises the potential ceiling for the playoffs
The Seahawks have had a nice turnaround midway through the season and currently boast an 8-5 record after a 4-5 start. For the most part this season, quarterback Geno Smith has done the heavy lifting, propping up a team with an inconsistent offensive line and defense game after game. Lately, it’s become more of a group effort as new head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense is finally starting to take shape and look like the unit everyone was hoping for when he arrived in Seattle this offseason. With the defense’s recent performance, the Seahawks have managed to take control of the NFC West and look like a team that would be tough to play in January.
The start of the season makes the last month of play all the more impressive. The Seahawks, like the Ravens early in Macdonald’s tenure in Baltimore, struggled to play effective defense on a down-to-down basis. They were pretty much a defense in the middle of the pack. According to TruMedia, the Seahawks defense ranks 18th in expected points added per game (-0.02), 22nd in success rate (42.3%), 14th in points per drive (1.91) and 17th in terms of third down conversion rate (37.4%) in the nine games prior to their Week 10 bye.
Seattle made a huge trade during the season for linebacker Ernest Jones, who helped bolster the front seven and since parting ways they have been one of the best defenses in football. As of Week 11, the Seahawks rank second in points per drive (1.31), third in net yards per pass attempt (5.6), first in expected points added per play (-0.16), sixth in success rate (39.9%) and fifth in yards per play (5.0). During that period they played the 49ers, the Cardinals twice and the Jets. The Jets may not be the cream of the crop on offense this year, but the 49ers and Cardinals have been good offensive units.
The Seahawks’ four-game win streak that has them atop the division wouldn’t be possible without this defensive turnaround. The offense has essentially fluctuated between average and above-average season, but Smith’s performance gives them a high floor on that side of the ball. If the defense can keep playing like this, maybe Seattle can get a home game for the wild card and who knows what could happen?
This is an exciting development for the Seahawks and their fan base. This unit was one of the worst in the league a year ago and has already grown into a strong unit in just one season at Macdonald. He is doing what he was brought and advertised to do, giving the Seahawks an incredibly bright immediate future. Their performance to end the season, and possibly in January, will provide a lot of insight into where their future lies in the new era.
