WASHINGTON — Joe Biden has struggled for most of his presidency to convince Americans that their financial situation is better than they thought. Now, Vice President Kamala Harris will try to change those negative perceptions as voters remain concerned about economic health.
Harris will detail her economic policy agenda during a speech in North Carolina on Friday, where she is expected to focus on lowering prices, including a plan to crack down on predatory pricing by large food manufacturers and grocers, the campaign said. Harris will also propose a crackdown on takeovers between food companies if those deals could lead to higher grocery prices.
The economy and concerns about rising costs are among the top issues for voters, who have consistently given Biden low marks. While Biden has tried to emphasize positives, such as relatively low unemployment and strong economic growth, he has been unable to improve voters’ sentiments amid decades of high inflation. Former President Donald Trump has tried to tie Harris to Biden’s views, often arguing that she is responsible for all of the current administration’s policies.
Harris will have an opportunity to refocus the message on lowering costs for consumers and shift voters’ attention to the future during her speech on Friday and at the Democratic National Convention next week.
“Biden has always focused on jobs and unemployment, and that’s not what voters say they’re worried about. For three years, they’ve been worried about how much they pay for groceries and gas and the cost of housing,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research. “It’s much more about understanding where people are and what you’re doing to make a difference than it is about telling them something they don’t believe.”
There has been some early evidence that Harris has gained an edge over Biden among voters on the economy in the weeks since he took over the nomination. In an NPR/Marist poll released earlier this month, 51% of Americans said Trump would do a better job on the economy, compared with 48% who said the same of Harris — a slight decline in support for Trump since June and an increase in support for Harris over Biden.
In a separate poll released this month by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, 42% of respondents said they trusted Harris to manage the economy, compared with 35% who said the same about Biden in July when he was the Democratic nominee. About 41% said they trusted Trump in both the July and August surveys.
But other polls suggest Trump still has a big advantage. In a CNBC poll released this month, 40% of respondents said they would be better off financially if Trump won, compared with 20% who said the same about Harris. But voters said they knew more about what Trump would do for the economy than Harris did, leaving room for her to gain support.
“There’s been some good, encouraging movement for her, but the question is how much momentum can she have. It’s still pretty early, people just don’t know much about Harris in general,” Horwitt said. “I think the real deciding point is going to be two weeks after the convention.”
Overall, 78% of respondents rated the economy as fair to poor, virtually unchanged from a year ago, the CNBC poll found.
Inflation is one of the biggest concerns among undecided voters, who make up about 3% to 5% of the electorate. Among those undecided voters, along with third-party voters, 72% said they believed inflation was getting worse, compared with 57% of the general electorate, according to polling by the Cook Political Report.
Americans have seen a series of mixed signals about the economy in recent weeks. Stocks fell earlier this month after the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July and the pace of hiring fell short of economists’ expectations. That rise in unemployment has fueled growing fears of a recession, with JP Morgan raising the probability of a recession this year to 35% from 25%.
Meanwhile, corporate America is warning of slowing consumer spending. Amazon says customers are switching to cheaper items, Starbucks saw a decline in store traffic and Home Depot warned that sales in the second half of the year will be lower than expected due to high interest rates and consumer uncertainty.
But other indicators this week showed consumers kept spending, with retail sales rising more than expected in July and Walmart reporting solid sales growth. Despite labor market concerns, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell for the second straight week last week.
At the same time, consumers are getting some relief from rising prices. Inflation has shown consistent signs of slowing, with consumer prices rising at their slowest pace since the pandemic began in July. Used car prices fell 11% in July from a year ago, and gasoline fell 2.2%.
Still, prices have risen overall by 20% since Biden took office, according to the Consumer Price Index. While wages have risen, consumers have slightly less purchasing power, adjusted for inflation, than they did at the start of 2021, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Grocery prices have skyrocketed over the past three years. Harris’ proposal would create a federal ban on excessive pricing in the food and food processing industries. During her speech, she is expected to accuse meatpacking companies of raising prices while making record profits since the start of the pandemic, the campaign said in a preview of the speech.
Harris has previously called for raising the minimum wage and expanding child benefits, two measures that would benefit lower-income households. She has also called for exempting workers’ tips from federal taxes, something Trump has also voiced support for.
“Voters are forward-looking, they care about the future, and she’s putting forward smart new policies that have populist appeal,” said Tim Hogan, a Democratic strategist who served as a spokesman for Amy Klobuchar’s 2020 presidential campaign and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. “There’s a novelty in what she is and what she represents on the ticket.”
Consumers could get more financial relief in September, when economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its last meeting before the November elections.
That could lead to lower interest rates on home mortgages, providing some relief to potential homebuyers, along with lower interest rates on credit cards and auto loans. A rate cut would also help lower borrowing costs for employers looking to expand their businesses.
“We are confident that the Fed will cut rates in September. I think it’s more a question of how much they cut than whether they cut,” said Bharat Ramamurti, who served as deputy director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration. “That will be an important moment politically because it will signal to the public that the Fed is confident that they have overcome inflation. I think it will be a major turning point.”
Trump delivered his own comments on the economy in North Carolina on Wednesday, where he said he would cut energy and electricity prices in at least half in the first 18 months of a second administration, but added the caveat: “And if it doesn’t work out, you say, ‘Oh, well, I voted for him. I still got it down a lot.'”
He said he would lower energy prices by accelerating approvals for new energy infrastructure, allowing drilling on new lands and reducing regulations. Trump has said he opposes spending on wind and solar energy. The U.S. is currently producing more crude oil than ever before, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Trump has previously said he would impose a 60% tariff on goods from China and reduce the number of immigrants allowed into the country, accusing them of taking “black jobs.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
