Of pollIt shows that Americans rank the economy As their most pressing concern in the Nov. 5 election, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making last-minute pitches to convince voters they know how to guarantee the country’s financial prosperity.
At the same time, many factors affecting the country’s economic performance are beyond the president’s control, from shocks like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the pandemic supply chain, which has contributed to the highest U.S. inflation in four decades.
Although experts largely give the current economy high marksMost Americans disagree; 52% tell Gallup they feel worse off today than they did four years ago. That’s partly due to partisan differences — Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they’re having a harder time than in 2020, Gallup found — but economists say it’s also tied to lingering pain from the global disruptions caused by the pandemic.
“It’s inflation, dumbass!” wrote Bernard Yaros, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an Oct. 24 report, borrowing from political strategist James Carville’s famous coinage. “Inflation is the number one issue voters are concerned about, and how it is perceived will determine the election.”
Here are five key factors that can influence voters’ decisions as they cast their ballots.
Inflation: A low rate, but prices remain high
Inflation across the country has cooled significantly from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, with the consumer price index (CPI) falling to a level three years low of 2.4% in September, close to the Federal Reserve’s annual target of 2%.
But ask almost any American whether inflation is still high, and the answer is usually a resounding “yes.” In fact, more than 1 in 4 people surveyed by YouGov in August said they think the current inflation rate is more than 10%. The reason: the persistently high prices. Although inflation has fallen close to pre-pandemic levels, prices have not fallen and continue to impact consumers.
Take food prices, which rose by only 1.3% in September compared to a year earlier. While that percentage is low, it still means consumers have to pay 1.3% more to fill their shopping cart, on top of food prices that have already risen 26% since January 2020. That is difficult for many people to swallow.
“If enough independent voters in battleground states continue to feel shock from the alarmingly high inflation of 2021 and 2022, former President Donald Trump is expected to win the Electoral College,” Yaros wrote.
In contrast, “If swing voters focus instead on the pace of change in consumer prices, rather than the price level, they will be more likely to support the vice president because of the significant moderation in inflation since mid-2022 ” he noted.
Jobs and wages: winners and losers
The labor market is strong, with the US unemployment rate near a 50-year low. Still, the unemployment rate has risen slightly in recent months, one of the Fed’s reasons decided to lower rates last month. Wages have risen faster than inflation since May 2023, lifting some households out of the financial hole left by rising prices.
But such statistics cannot compensate for the long-term problems some workers face. For example, men without college degrees have lost economic ground in recent decades as the labor market shifted toward occupations that require higher education and training.
White men without a bachelor’s degree earned more than the average worker in 1980, the New York Times found in a recent analysis of Census data. But now this group of workers earns far less than the average American, while women with college degrees have surpassed them in earnings.
White Americans without a college degree are more likely to say the economy is in bad shape than those with a bachelor’s degree, and they are also more likely to support Trump, CBS News opinion polls show. In an Oct. 23-25 CBS News poll, about 63% of white people without a college education said they planned to vote for Trump, compared to 48% of those with a postsecondary degree.
Immigration: costs to the economy
Voters also see immigration as a top issue, and Trump has stepped up his attacks on the Biden-Harris administration’s record on illegal immigration, pledging to largest deportation in American history if he is elected.
But that’s also an economic issue, as there are more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., many of whom work in meatpacking plants, on farms, on construction sites and in other jobs critical to the country’s well-being.
Deporting these immigrants could create major economic headwinds, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Deporting migrants would be stagflationary for the US economy,” he wrote on X in July. “The greater the restrictions and deportations, the more the recessionary effects outweigh the inflationary effects for the Fed.”
It would also cost taxpayers billions to deport millions of people. According to a CBS News analysis, it would $20 billion to arrest and deport 1 million people alone.
Taxes: cuts in prospect?
Taxes have been central to both campaigns, as Trump and Harris have pledged to pass a number of tax cuts and credits to help certain groups of people.
In some cases, the candidates have offered the same tax benefits, for example one to eliminate taxes on tips. But Trump has gone further and offered everyone a laundry list of cuts Social security beneficiaries Unpleasant car buyers.
But the biggest issue ahead is the future of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, the 2017 legislation signed by Trump that delivered big tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, as well as more modest cuts for millions of other Americans. Trump wants to renew many of those provisions while also lowering the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.
Still, changes to the tax code must be approved by the House of Representatives and the Senate, which could be a tall order for either candidate if there is a divided Congress in the next administration.
The Federal Deficit and Debt: Growing Larger
Another problem is the country’s national debt and growing deficit, with both candidates’ economic proposals expected to add trillions to the national debt.
Harris’ plans would add nearly $4 trillion in debt through 2035, while Trump’s plan would increase it by nearly $8 trillion, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which favors smaller deficits.
“Government debt currently stands at 99% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected to grow from 102% of GDP at the start of the year. [fiscal year] 2026 to 125% by the end of 2035, based on the current legislative baseline from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the group wrote in an Oct. 28 analysis.
It added: “Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election will face an unprecedented budget situation upon taking office… The cost of servicing our high and rising national debt has already outweighed the costs of defending our nation or providing of health care to older Americans. “
That’s also an issue that worries Americans in battleground states, according to an October poll from the Peterson Institute, which found that 9 in 10 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin think the candidates need a plan for reducing the national debt.
