Investigative journalist Christo Grozev of Bellingcat predicts that in half a year either Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner Group, will be “dead” or “there will be a second coup” in Russia.
Source: Grozev in an interview with the Financial Times
Quote: “Putin… called Prigozhin a traitor.
Everyone knows what they do with ‘traitors’ and Putin has not done that.
He [Putin – ed.] want to see him [Prigozhin – ed.] dead.
He can’t yet.
In six months Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup.”
Details: Grozev also said he doesn’t think any segment of the Russian elite, with the exception of the military-industrial complex, sees sense in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to him, they “don’t speak up” because of a “prisoner’s dilemma”.
Answering a question, the researcher commented on the possible overthrow of Putin: “It could go one of two ways.
Either the prisoner’s dilemma can be broken, or they will simply lose him through a more coordinated coup.
You don’t have that yet among the oligarchs, or with any of the ministers, or the FSB [Russia’s security service – FT].
But it is unpalatable for the rest of the elite to live in a North Korea 2.1 [because of the sanctions imposed against Russia – ed.] with their bank accounts frozen.
Other triggers may occur. Just say a turnaround on the front line.”
Background:
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On the evening of June 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, said that the Russian regular army had launched a missile attack on the rear mercenary camps, and that because of this, Prigozhin’s reportedly 25,000 mercenaries would “restore justice”. “.
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On the morning of June 24, Prigozhin claimed he had taken control of Rostov-on-Don military facilities, including an airfield; afterwards Prigozhin said they were “heading for Moscow”, and his soldiers shot down three Russian helicopters. Mercenaries from the Wagner Private Military Company also seized military facilities in the Russian city of Voronezh.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an emergency speech that Russia is “fighting for survival” and that there are attempts to “stage an uprising” in the country.
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The Office of the President of the Russian Federation expected Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group fighters to reach the outskirts of Moscow in a matter of hours, fighting near the Russian capital. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Vladimir Putin hurriedly left Moscow for his residence in Valdai. A convoy of troops from the Wagner Group was spotted 400 kilometers from Moscow.
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After speaking with Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Prigozhin said on Saturday night that his mercenaries turned their convoys around and headed in the opposite direction to set up field camps. The criminal case against Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would be closed and he would “go to Belarus”.
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