This offseason, Ohio State decided they had had enough of the loss to Michigan, signing QB Will Howard, OC Chip Kelly, S Caleb Downs, RB Quinshon Judkins, and perhaps the greatest freshman WR in modern history, Jeremiah Smith to strengthen their selection. to make a run at the CFP National Championship. Through four games, the results were overwhelming, with OSU strangling their helpless opponents by a combined score of 195-27. Their lone P4 opponent, Michigan State, generated an anemic 246 yards and averaged just 1.9 yards per carry in the lopsided 38-7 loss. The Buckeyes rank ninth in SP+ offense and second in defense, making OSU the current #1 team in the country by the numbers.
It’s hard to argue with the decision to jettison Nepo loanee OC Brian Ferentz in favor of former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester, as the Hawkeyes are averaging twice as many points (30.7) in four games in 2024 than last season (15.4). . In fact, Iowa has already surpassed the 30-point mark three times this season, matching the total of 30-plus point performances from the previous three years combined! HC Kirk Ferentz’s team is 3-1 and dropping a 20-19 decision to archrival Iowa State thanks to some late-game heroics from QB Rocco Becht.
NBC Sports has the latest information and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game details and how to watch 2024 Iowa @ Ohio State live
· Date: Saturday October 5, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Location: Het Hoefijzer
· City: Columbus, Ohio
· TV/streaming: CBS
Do you want the other games on the College Football Schedule this week? We’ve got you covered here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, location, game time and TV/streaming information so you don’t miss any of the action!
Game Odds for Iowa @ Ohio State – Week 6
The latest odds from Friday morning:
This game started with an aggressive OSU -24 and has since steadily gotten down to the current -19.5/20 we see at time of release. The same goes for Ohio’s cratered money line from -2100 to a tantalizing -1100. Iowa ML has fallen from +1,100 to a high of +950. However, the spread-related market swings had little effect on the total, which opened and currently sits in the range of 44.5 to 45.5.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes there will be plenty of points in this match:
“With Iowa currently hitting .1000 and going 4-for-4 in the Over, and Ohio State hitting the Over at a 75% clip this year, I’m following the trends and advocating for a game at the OVER 45.5 points .”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insight, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.
Up from the trading desk BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Week 6 Insights
Most bets (tickets)
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Syracuse-UNLV
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Michigan State-Oregon
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Tennessee-Arkansas
Most Betting Teams (Tickets)
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Tennessee -13.5
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UNLV-6.5
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Michigan+1.5
Most Betting Teams (handle)
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Navy -9
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Alabama -23.5
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Tennessee -13.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
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Michigan State-Oregon 52.5
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Iowa State-Ohio 45.5
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Syracuse-UNLV 57.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
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Baylor-Iowa State 44.5
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Indiana-Northwest 41.5
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USC Minnesota 49.5
Most Bet Underdogs to Win (Tickets)
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Michigan +100
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Missouri +115
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Michigan State +1200
Quarterback matchup for Iowa @ Ohio State
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State of Ohio: Despite importing multiple impact transfers, HC Ryan Day made upgrading the QB position his #1 priority in the portal this offseason. Kansas State transplant QB Will Howard was the choice, and so far it’s paying off: Howard increased his completion percentage from 61 to 69% by an 8-to-2 ratio. It’s nice to see improvement with turnovers, as he threw ten interceptions last year and reducing miscues was a focus for new OC Chip Kelly. Howard has recorded just one sack and currently has a passer rating of 117.9, which is the highest mark of his five-year collegiate career. With the soft non-conference slate behind him, Howard now faces a gauntlet of strong defense in Iowa/@Oregon/Nebraska/@Penn State.
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Iowa: Does the Hawkeyes’ 86th-ranked SP+ offense strike fear in the hearts of opposing DCs after their aforementioned barrage of 30-plus point showings this year? Well, not quite yet, as their everyday passing game still ranks 133rd in passes of 20+ yards, 128th in explosiveness and 120th in yards per dropback. However, with a respectable 73.8 PFF overall grade, QB Cade McNamara looks like Iowa all-time passing leader Nathan Stanley compared to former super-sized starting Deacon Hill. OC Lester has McNamara completing 63% of his throws thanks to a conservative 6.8 ADOT, designed to get the ball into the playmakers’ hands quickly and efficiently. Well, as efficient as Iowa’s passing game can reasonably be expected to perform. As long as McNamara can be an accurate short-yardage distributor to offset a potentially very good Iowa game, he should be effective.
Trends and recent statistics
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Iowa is 8-3 ATS in intercepting 1+ passes, and 8-4 in allowing fewer than 3 sacks since 2023. Conversely, they are also winless (0-3) ATS in allowing 22 or more points
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Iowa’s run game has improved greatly from a year ago, ranking 18th in yards per successful rush, 15th in YPC and 7th with a robust 3.8 yards after contact. They averaged 3.3 YPC in 2023 and a paltry 2.9 YPC in 2022, so this is a major positive development.
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Despite some fairly aggressive totals, OSU is 3-1 for the Over so far this season. Although the Buckeyes have an average scoring margin of +42 points (2nd in FBS), the Buckeyes are only 2-2 ATS.
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Ohio State’s defense has become a top unit under the tutelage of DC Jim Knowles as teams are terrified of throwing on them while OSU is ranked No. 1 nationally and defends 45% of their passes for 0 or fewer air yards. Helps having a defensive line that, of course, has an 11.3% sack rate, third-best nationally.
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