Kyle Larson is the new betting favorite to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series title.
Regular season champion Martin Truex Jr. entered the playoffs as the favorite, but lost that status after advancing to the second round with a five-point lead. Truex finished 18th at Darlington, last at Kansas after suffering a flat tire four laps into the race and was 19th at Bristol. But since entering the playoffs as the top seed due to his regular season title and three regular season wins, he was able to advance to the round of 12.
Larson, meanwhile, won at Darlington, finished fourth at Kansas and was second at Bristol to Denny Hamlin.
Larson is +400 to win the title at BetMGM and starts the second round 13 points behind both Truex and William Byron. Truex starts the second round at the top of the points standings due to the way the points reset at the start of each round. Both Truex and Byron started the playoffs with 36 bonus points and those 36 points will carry over to the second round.
Larson, meanwhile, starts the second round six points closer than he was at the start of the play-offs, thanks to gaining five points for his win in Darlington and a point for winning the first leg in Kansas.
Truex, Hamlin and Byron are the number 2 favorites at +450 each and no one else comes close. Based on these odds, oddsmakers make it clear that Larson, Hamlin, Truex and Byron are the favorites to be the four drivers to race heads-up for the title in Phoenix in the winner-take-all championship race.
The No. 5 favorite to win the title is Kyle Busch at +1000. And you can argue that Busch’s chances are too high given his current form. Busch’s best finish in the past seven races since finishing third at Richmond is a pair of seventh places. He also finished 37th, 36th and 20th during that period. Although eleventh and seventh place finishes in the first two races of the first round were enough to easily advance him to the second round, Busch needs to find some speed.
Here’s a look at the betting and points standings heading into the first race of the second round on Sunday in Texas. After Texas, drivers will race at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval before the postseason field is narrowed to eight.
NASCAR Cup Series points standings and title odds
1. Martin Truex Jr., 3,036 points (+450 to win the Cup Series title)
1. William Byron, 3,036 (+450)
3. Denny Hamlin, 3,032 (+450)
4. Kyle Larson, 3,023 (+400)
5. Chris Buescher, 3,021 (+1100)
6. Kyle Busch, 3,019 (+1000)
7. Christopher Bell, 3,016 (+1300)
8. Tyler Reddick, 3,014 (+1200)
9. Ross Chastain, 3,011 (+1800)
10. Brad Keselowski, 3,011 (+1800)
11. Ryan Blaney, 3,008 (+2000)
12. Bubba Wallace, 3,000 (+5000)
