With two days to go until Election Day, early voting has ended in North Carolina — and turnout looks different than 2020.
More voters cast ballots in early voting than ever before, far fewer voters used mail-in voting and registered Republicans, breaking with long-held trends, slightly surpassed Democrats in early election turnout.
Some Republicans see reason to celebrate in these numbers, but the overall picture may be more complicated.
Record early voting turnout
More than 4.2 million North Carolina residents cast ballots during in-person early voting, easily surpassing 2020’s record of 3.6 million early voters.
In total, almost 57% of eligible voters have already voted, including those who voted by post. The total turnout in 2020 was approximately 75%.
Turnout was also higher in the 25 Western North Carolina counties affected by Hurricane Helene, where turnout averaged about 2% higher than the rest of the state.
“I am proud of all of our 100 county election boards and the thousands of election workers who make this possible in their communities,” Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said in a news release Sunday. “And I am especially proud of the workers and voters of Western North Carolina. You are an inspiration to us all.”
Voting by mail was much more popular in 2020 as many voters chose to stay home due to the COVID pandemic. By this point in 2020, more than 900,000 citizen voters had cast their ballots by mail. Now there are just over 215,000.
Republican turnout outpaces Democrats
During the 2020 election, Trump often claimed, without evidence, that early and mail-in voting would be used to cheat. This year, however, Republicans changed their message and encouraged their base to “flood the vote” by coming out early.
In North Carolina, it appears Republicans have listened.
Registered Republicans slightly outpaced Democrats in early voting and mail-in totals, currently accounting for 33.3% of votes cast so far, compared to Democrats’ 32.4%.
At this point in 2020, Democrats had a nearly six-point lead over Republicans in early election turnout.
This year, however, neither of the two major parties had the largest turnout during early voting. That distinction belongs to North Carolina’s most popular party identifier: unaffiliated voters.
Unaffiliated voters accounted for 33.6% of total early and mail-in voting this year.
It’s unclear which direction this group will go, but other demographics may provide clues.
Women, black voters are showing up
Women turned out significantly more voters than men, accounting for almost 52% of the total turnout, compared to about 41% for men. While Democrats campaign heavily for abortion rights, some see this as a positive indicator of their chances.
However, that gender gap was replicated in almost exactly the same numbers at this point in 2020, when Trump ultimately won the state by about 1.3 points.
Despite initially lagging turnout, Black voters surged to the polls in the final days of early voting, ultimately beating 2020’s personal record. However, overall Black voter turnout is still down from this point in 2020, as mail is accepted. taken into account when voting.
Voting will still take place on election day
Voters can still cast ballots in their local precincts on Election Day from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
In 2020, about 16% of North Carolinians voted on Election Day.
