Nov. 17—SANTA FE — When Donald Trump returns to power in January, his agenda could face a healthy dose of resistance in New Mexico.
That’s because Democrats still hold all the statewide elected offices and some are getting ready to push back against the president-elect.
But the Trump administration could have the final say on proposed land swaps, oil drilling on federal lands, natural disaster relief and other major policy issues affecting New Mexico.
House Speaker Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque, said Democrats will act quickly on behalf of women seeking reproductive health care, immigrants and other groups if the Trump administration rolls back existing protections.
“We will take action and protect our people,” Martínez told the Journal.
But he also said the Republican Party’s president-elect would be wise to follow New Mexico’s lead by expanding a federal tax credit for child care and making higher education more affordable.
“If the Trump administration wants to come to New Mexico and learn from what we have done, they are welcome,” Martinez said.
Meanwhile, state Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard said she is concerned the Trump administration could thwart plans for a land swap in southern New Mexico.
The proposed land swap, which has already begun, would see the state receive about 76,000 acres of federal land on the west side of Las Cruces and around the Santa Teresa gateway.
In return, the state would transfer about 84,000 acres, now part of the Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks National Monument near Las Cruces, to the federal Bureau of Land Management. This would prevent the land in question from being developed or leased by a future land commissioner.
“We really urge this new administration not to stand in the way,” Garcia Richard told the Journal. “It would be a shame if this is hindered.”
The land the state would acquire through the swap could be leased for manufacturing, solar energy and other forms of economic development, according to the State Land Office.
Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in this month’s general election, while Republicans won control of the US Senate and retained a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives.
That “trifecta” could give the Trump administration the green light to implement its agenda at the federal level, with states having only limited ability to defy federal mandates.
While some elected officials have taken a wait-and-see approach to Trump’s second term, Garcia Richard said New Mexico can expect the future president to try to keep his campaign promises.
“I don’t think it’s speculative because we’ve been through this before,” she said, referring to Trump’s first term as president from 2017 to 2020.
How the economy could be affected Trump held a campaign rally in Albuquerque the week before Election Day, claiming that a Democratic victory would eliminate more than 90,000 jobs in New Mexico’s oil and natural gas industry.
“If Kamala is elected, New Mexico’s economy will be reduced to rubble,” Trump said.
While oil production in New Mexico increased by about 120% in Trump’s four years as president, it is up nearly 80% from Democratic President Joe Biden’s first three years in office — more than 683 last year million barrels of oil – and is on track to achieve that. statutory data shows that it will grow even further this year.
As a result, state revenues have soared to record highs in recent years and are expected to exceed $13 billion for the current budget year – more than double the amount eight years ago.
Senate Minority Whip Pat Woods, R-Broadview, said the Trump administration could push oil and natural gas production to even higher levels, in part by relaxing regulations to build new pipelines.
“In my opinion, the economy under Trump has an opportunity to prosper with a little less regulation,” Woods said.
But he said he expects such regulations won’t be adopted overnight, adding that solar and wind energy will likely remain part of the state’s energy mix.
“I think that process will continue,” Woods told the Journal. “I think there will still be a demand for renewable energy.”
Woods also said he expects no loss of federal funds for New Mexico’s military bases and national laboratories, although the conservative policy book Project 2025 calls for labs to refocus on national security issues — and away from climate change and renewable technologies.
U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-M., disputed Woods’ claim, saying funding for “the programs that have positioned New Mexico as a leader in defense, science and innovation” could be at risk.
Federal funding made up about 35.7% of New Mexico’s total revenue in 2022, according to data from the Pew Charitable Trusts.
Lawmakers are trying to codify protections
State lawmakers have already taken some steps to enshrine federal laws into state statutes, effectively protecting the state from any potential federal policy changes.
In 2019, for example, the Democratic-controlled Legislature passed measures that codified parts of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, into state law.
The law, which was signed by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, specifically prohibits health insurers from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions.
Lujan Grisham announced Friday that her administration will work with lawmakers to pass similar protections during the upcoming 60-day legislative session.
Democrats retained comfortable majorities in both legislative chambers in this month’s general election, although Republicans gained one seat in each of the House of Representatives and Senate, based on unofficial results.
“I do believe we will have some legislative proposals that will codify the protections that we have,” the two-term Democratic governor said in an interview.
That could include the creation of a state health care affordability fund, in case the federal government wants to cut funding levels for Medicaid or other programs, she said.
She also said it is a “real possibility” that Trump could withhold federal disaster relief funds from states like New Mexico that oppose his agenda.
“We’ve been through a Trump administration before and it can be punitive and reactive,” the governor told the Journal. “I also know that if he says something extreme, it could happen.”
But Lujan Grisham said she doesn’t believe the state needs to strengthen its abortion laws after lawmakers repealed a long-dormant state abortion ban in 2021.
Furthermore, Lujan Grisham did not describe her efforts as an attempt to “Trump-proof” the state, a phrase that has been used to describe the actions of other Democratic governors, including California Governor Gavin Newson.
“When you use terminology like that, it sounds like you’re politicizing,” the governor said. “It’s part of the job I was elected to do, regardless of who the president is.”
She also said she has been approached by fellow Democratic governments. JB Pritzker of Illinois and Jared Polis of Colorado on joining their emerging group called Governors Safeguarding Democracy.
However, Lujan Grisham said she has not yet decided whether to join the group or other similar organizations in the works following Trump’s election victory.
Courts can ultimately become an important battlefield
The ability of states like New Mexico to enact policies that go further — or potentially conflict — with federal mandates could ultimately be decided by the courts.
That could put some Democratic officials in a position to argue for states’ rights, a position often espoused by Republicans.
Attorney General Raúl Torrez indicated he will not hesitate to take action if he believes the constitutional rights of New Mexicans are being violated.
“Despite our political differences, all Americans believe in building a safer, stronger, and more prosperous country and we expect our President to work toward those goals while upholding our shared belief in the rule of law and our commitment to basic human decency,” Torrez said. .
“New Mexicans should know that any attack on these principles will be met with fierce resistance from my office, and I will not hesitate to stand up and fight for the freedom and dignity we are all entitled to,” he added.
With battles likely on the horizon, the question seems to be when – not if – the first challenges will be filed.
