The NFL kickoff was once such a signature play that the word “kickoff” was added to the dictionary to mean “the beginning of something.” Last season, however, only 22% of kickoffs resulted in a meaningful play.
Twenty years ago, more than 90 percent of kickoffs were returned. That number dropped in 2011, when the league moved kickoffs from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line, making it easier to kick the ball deep into the end zone. A decade ago, just under 50 percent of kickoffs were returned. In 2015, the touchback was moved from the 20-yard line to the 25-yard line, resulting in even fewer runbacks.
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In 2023, another rule took the incentive out of putting the ball in play: Returning teams could claim a fair catch outside the end zone and still start their drive at the 25-yard line. All of these changes were hoped to reduce injuries on returns, historically the riskiest plays in the game.
The kickoff is dead, but the NFL is trying to revive it this season by importing a new model from the XFL. Under the rules, which were approved by owners in a 29-3 vote this offseason, kickers will kick from their own 35-yard line, as before. Now, the remaining 10 members of the kicking team will line up at the opponent‘s 40-yard line — 25 yards downfield from the kicker — and the receiving team will line up between their own 30 and 35-yard lines.
Kicks that enter a “landing zone” between the 20-yard line and the end zone must be returned. Balls that enter the end zone on the fly may be returned or taken for a touchback to the 30-yard line (five yards less than the original XFL rule). If a kickoff hits the ground in the landing zone and lands in the end zone, it may be returned or downed by the receiving team for possession of the ball at the 20-yard line (five yards further than the XFL).
The biggest change: No one can move until the ball hits the ground or a returner’s hands, so players can’t build up momentum before they collide. The goal of the changes is to increase the frequency of returns while reducing injuries.
We got a taste of these rules during the 2024 NFL preseason and the results were promising. The return percentage was 70.5%, the highest in more than a decade.
But there’s a catch. In 2023, the preseason return rate was 55%, and yet kickers were still kicking the ball out of the end zone when the regular season started. This happens pretty much every year. During practice games, special teams coaches like to experiment with different coverages. Plus, practice squad returnees trying to earn a roster spot may be more willing to take a chance and run a running back than they would in games with real stakes.
The new touchback location changes the calculus for kicking teams, but perhaps not enough. The average drive after a kickoff return during the preseason started at the 28-yard line, indicating that kicking teams would give up only a few yards by driving the ball deep and having it placed at the 30. Teams that have a lead, for example, may choose not to take their chances with a quick returner.
In the 2023 XFL season, the average return also came in around the 28-yard line, but the touchback to the 35-yard line provided a greater incentive for kickers to aim the ball in the touchdown zone rather than the end zone. As a result, the return percentage was over 90%.
NFL preseason data gives kickers another reason to kick it. The farther from the end zone the ball was caught by the returner, the better the average field position. When the ball was caught between six and 10 yards from the end zone, the average return went to the 29.7-yard line. Balls caught within five yards of the end zone only went to the 27.4.
Interestingly, it made little difference whether opponents in the XFL kicked to the middle of the field or to the sideline in terms of the team’s average starting position.
Regardless of how strategy trends change for the regular season, we should see more variation in outcomes. During the 2023 NFL season, 88% of drives started on kickoffs between the 20- and 30-yard lines. In the XFL, however, that number was just 53%, as more strategic kicks pinned the offense near their own end zone and more returners broke it loose.
Finally, everyone’s favorite players, kickers, should be more involved in kickoff action. In preseason play, kickers made tackles on 3.6% of returns, nearly identical to the 3.7% from last season’s XFL. That’s nearly double the 2023 NFL campaign, when kickers made just 11 tackles on 587 returns (1.9%).
Those numbers are for returned kicks only, so given that there are likely to be more returns, kickers should play a much bigger role in marking. And that’s in addition to the increased importance of their kicking ability itself, as kickers will attempt squib kicks, soccer-style spins and other new approaches.
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