A major new poll puts Kamala Harris ahead Donald Trump in three key swing states, signaling a dramatic shift in Democratic Party momentum with three months to go before the election.
According to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College, the vice president holds a four percentage point lead over the former president in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50% to 46%, among nearly 2,000 likely voters in each state.
The polls were conducted between August 5 and 9, the week that Harris named Minnesota Governor and former Midwestern high school teacher Tim Walz as her running mate for the Democratic nomination slate for November.
Related: How Tim Walz Went From NRA Favorite to ‘Straight-Ahead’ on Gun Rights
It provides the clearest indication of key swing states since Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris amid mounting concerns about the 81-year-old’s cognitive well-being and his fitness to govern for a second term. The results come after months of polls showing Biden tied with or slightly behind Trump.
According to registered voters surveyed, Harris is seen as more intelligent, more honest and more temperamentally suited to run the country than Trump.
The findings, published Saturday by the Times, will give Democrats a boost as Harris and Walz continue to crisscross the country in their first week of campaigning together, holding a slate of events in swing states likely to decide the outcome of the election.
On Saturday, the candidates held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, a state that Biden-Harris won by more than two points in 2020.
While this is just a snapshot, Democrats will likely be pleased to see that 60% of independent voters surveyed, who always play a major role in determining the outcome of the race, said they were satisfied with the choice of presidential candidates, up from 45% in May.
The turnaround appears to be driven largely by changing perceptions of Harris among voters, who has been praised for her positivity and forward-looking campaign speeches during the campaign. In Pennsylvania, where Biden defeated Trump by just over 80,000 votes four years ago, her approval rating has risen 10 points among registered voters since last month, according to Times/Siena polling.
Harris will need to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — crucial states Biden captured in 2020 — if Democrats are to retake the White House.
The latest polls are likely to further anger Trump, whose few recent campaign events have been largely dominated by anger — and apparent disbelief — over the rapid shift in momentum since he named J.D. Vance, the Ohio senator and former venture capitalist, as his running mate amid a celebratory atmosphere at the Republican national convention less than a month ago.
Vance, who has been mocked as “odd” by Democrats for doubling down on his 2021 comments about the US being run by “childless cat ladies,” is generally viewed unfavorably or unenthusiastically by majorities of independents, Democrats and registered Republicans, the new poll finds.
But Democrats still have work to do to communicate Harris’ vision for the country. The poll found that 60% of registered voters think Trump has a clear vision for the country, compared to just 53% when asked about Harris.
Crucially, Trump still leads when it comes to confidence in handling the economy and immigration — two of the three most important issues for voters, according to polls.
Still, Harris holds a 24-point lead over Trump on abortion, an issue Democrats hope will help win votes in key swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris also has a significantly better record on democracy than Trump, who still faces criminal charges over his alleged role in undermining the 2020 election results and the Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington.
