Political pundits and Republicans alike do not believe that the rise of Vice President Kamala Harris as the de facto Democratic presidential candidate will have a dramatic impact on the outcome of the lower-tier elections in North Carolina.
Harris has energized Democrats, leading to record fundraising last week, raising $200 million in her first week alone, according to her campaign, and recruiting thousands of new volunteers. Some of that money is flowing to North Carolina. Earlier this month, the Democratic National Committee announced it had spent $1.2 million in N.C. so far this election as part of its $15 million investment in swing states.
Despite growing enthusiasm among Democrats, North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Jason Simmons is optimistic.
“The fundamental nature of this race doesn’t change just because they replaced Joe Biden,” Simmons told The Charlotte Observer. “Once the American public and particularly the voters of North Carolina get to know her, Harris will be exposed for who she really is.”
Harris has also motivated Republican voters, donors and advocacy groups, Simmons said. While there are no public figures, Simmons said anecdotally, fundraising is up. He added that Republican Party candidates will continue to focus on “failed Biden policies,” particularly those related to the economy and immigration.
“People are afraid of what they see in Kamala Harris and don’t want to see her anywhere near the White House,” Simmons said. “Our grassroots engagement, our volunteer base, our donor base are all more engaged.”
That extra money and Harris’ attention to the state could boost turnout in lower-level elections by a few percentage points, according to Eric Heberlig, a political science professor at UNC Charlotte.
However, Heberlig said higher national spending could also have downsides.
“More national attention because Democrats think they can flip the presidential election in the state could make it harder for local candidates like Stein to focus their message on local issues,” he said.
Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson disagrees, arguing that Republicans’ messages won’t appeal to suburban, college-educated swing voters.
“Everybody has to run their own campaign because the issues are different,” Jackson said. “In fundraising, I don’t hear (Republicans) quoting numbers about record amounts of money being raised, record numbers of volunteers showing up… What you’re seeing right now is the Republican Party in a bit of a crisis.”
Lower ballot box races in North Carolina
Governing candidate Mark Robinson has already attempted to link his opponent, Josh Stein, to Harris’ role in addressing the “root causes” of migration from Central America. Last year, there was a surge in crossings at the southern border, with the highest monthly total of migrants crossing in December, according to government statistics.
“Radical liberals Kamala Harris and Josh Stein will turn North Carolina into a haven for illegal immigrants and defund the police,” Robinson posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The Stein campaign refutes Robinson’s characterization.
“While Mark Robinson makes noise about public safety, Attorney General Josh Stein is actually making North Carolinians safer… by advocating for more law enforcement on the streets, fighting back against fentanyl drug traffickers on a bipartisan basis, and successfully pushing Congress to improve fentanyl detection at the border,” a Stein campaign spokesperson told The Observer.
In the General Assembly elections, even if turnout does go up, experts say it will only help a few candidates because of the way districts are drawn. Some legislative races, including Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham’s race against Democrat Nicole Sidman, are turnout drivers on their own, while other districts are not competitive at all. It’s highly unlikely to shift the balance of power in either chamber, Duke University professor Pope “Mac” McCorkle told the Observer.
“For the vast majority of General Assembly districts, changes in turnout probably won’t make much difference because of partisan gerrymandering,” McCorkle said. “But for the handful of competitive districts we have, it could make a difference because the margins are thin. Exactly who will benefit from that isn’t clear yet.”
In other races, such as the battle between Democrat Jeff Jackson and Republican Dan Bishop for state attorney general, Bishop has attempted to portray Jackson as someone soft on crime by citing his support for Harris and her time as California’s attorney general.
“The last thing this state needs is more prosecutors like Jeff Jackson and Vice President Harris,” Bishop told the Observer. “Every day there are new headlines about shootings and other crimes. People want law and order restored, and Jeff Jackson and Kamala Harris can’t deliver that.”
“Dan Bishop has never prosecuted a single case, so it’s odd that he keeps insisting that Congressman Jackson has actual experience as a prosecutor… He talks a lot about being pro-law enforcement, but he also said he wants to ‘blow the FBI into a million pieces’ because he cares more about culture wars than public safety,” a Jackson spokesperson told The Observer.
Simmons doesn’t expect hyperlocal races to focus much on national politics. However, he is confident that there will be Republican victories in statewide contests in November.
“You’re going to see Republicans really pushing hard all over the ballot to make sure that turnout is high. We see it every four years when Trump voters turn out in droves,” he said. “We have a good chance.”
