ERIE, Pa. — Vice President Kamala Harris gathered a packed crowd Monday night in Erie County, a city that has a knack for predicting who will govern Pennsylvania, after mirroring the outcome of this crucial battleground state in the last four elections .
Harris sharpened her attacks on Donald Trump, using a large screen to play clips of the former president calling for the banning of dissent and criticism among “the enemy within.”
“A second Trump term would be a huge risk for America. And dangerous,” said Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate. “Donald Trump is becoming increasingly unstable and unhinged. And he is after unchecked power. He wants to send the military after American citizens. He has worked to prevent women from making their own health care decisions.”
Harris’ trip this week marks the start of a campaign blitz in a trio of northern battlegrounds — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that could make or break her hopes of defeating Trump next month.
Former President Barack Obama comfortably won Erie County when Pennsylvania was on a blue streak in 2008 and 2012; then Trump won it by about less than 2 points in his successful 2016 campaign, before Joe Biden reversed it by just 1 point in 2020 when he ousted Trump.
“Erie County, you are a pivotal county!” Harris told the crowd and urged them to vote. “How you all vote in presidential elections often predicts the national outcome.”
Follow live updates on the 2024 elections
The county is located along Lake Erie in northwestern Pennsylvania, sandwiched between eastern Ohio and New York state. According to the Census Bureau, the average income is lower than the national average, as is the share of college-educated people.
“You choose the president!” Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who carried this county by 9 percentage points in his successful 2022 Senate campaign, told the crowd here before Harris spoke. In 2020, he said, “Joe Biden showed up; he smoked that clown and sent him home!”
Fetterman won the state by maximizing votes in metropolitan areas and limiting his margins of defeat in red-trending rural areas. Now he’s trying to help Harris do the same. As Obama and Gov. Josh Shapiro met in Pittsburgh on Thursday, Fetterman toured red counties to advocate for her.
In an interview before the meeting, Fetterman emphasized that defeating Trump in Pennsylvania will not be easy.
“Trump has a very unique and special bond there [in rural Pennsylvania]and that’s why he’s going to be incredibly difficult,” Fetterman said, noting that rural counties are full of pro-Trump badges. “It’s kind of like a Taylor Swift concert, where you have so much swag that it goes beyond typical politics.”
Trump campaign spokesman Kush Desai of Pennsylvania said in a statement: “Since Kamala Harris can’t even give a half-decent answer about what she would do differently from Sleepy Joe Biden over the past four years, there will be no new campaign rally. to move the needle on her failing campaign. Erie County will prove it is Trump Country when it votes to return to the peace, prosperity and stability of the first Trump presidency in November.”
It will be a busy week for Harris in three battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin may be must-wins for her, as polls show that rival Sun Belt states that Biden narrowly carried in 2020 – such as Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – lifts are heavier for her.
“With just three weeks until Election Day, Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are leaving it all on the field — blanketing the battlegrounds this week with an aggressive campaign schedule, primarily on the Blue Wall,” a Harris official said by email .
In addition to returning to Pennsylvania midweek, the official said, Harris will also make stops in Detroit, Grand Rapids, Lansing and Oakland County in Michigan, as well as Milwaukee, La Crosse and Green Bay in Wisconsin.
Harris cannot afford a decline among black voters. Tuesday’s stop in Detroit will feature radio host Charlamagne Tha God as she tries to mobilize black men — a demographic Obama sounded the alarm about when campaigning for Harris in Pennsylvania last week.
“We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all areas of our neighborhoods and communities that we saw when I was running,” he said Thursday during a stop for a rally in the Pittsburgh area. “Now I would also like to say that this seems to be clearer with the brothers.”
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the vice presidential candidate, is campaigning this week in Wisconsin and western Pennsylvania, the Harris official said. And he will stop in Nebraska’s second congressional district, which includes Omaha and has one electoral vote that could be crucial for Harris if the Sun Belt breaks for Trump.
The Trump campaign is trying to capitalize on a new wave of polls that indicate Harris’ lead is narrowing. It released a memo on Sunday titled: “Is the Kamala campaign cracking?”
“What happened to all Harris’ supposed ‘momentum’? Frankly, it never really existed beyond the July borders,” wrote Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.
Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg said Harris must work to narrow the margins of defeat in rural areas. But she warned that reversing the party’s fortunes there will be extremely difficult, especially with the demise of local newspapers and the growth of “information silos” since Obama’s two campaigns.
“It was Hillary Clinton where the bottom fell out. And I think [Harris] It is smart to campaign everywhere and have Walz everywhere,” she said. “But rural America is very tough. Very, very, very heavy. It’s not an easy place for a black woman from California.”
To make up for any losses in rural areas, Harris’ campaign has sought to court Nikki Haley voters from the Republican primary, who are largely concentrated in educated suburbs and could help Harris grow her coalition and boost the margins of Biden in 2020.
“I really think these people from the suburbs – Nikki Haley people – are very uncomfortable with Trump, uncomfortable with all his crazy stuff…, and we have such a great opening,” said Paulette Aniskoff, the top adviser to Harris, Pennsylvania. “And I think they hear it from their own friends. They hear it from our door knocks. They hear from Liz Cheney. … These things – they all really add up, and we feel like they’re coming our way.
And the red areas and small towns?
“The most important thing we do is listen to these people instead of talking to them. We train our people to do that,” Aniskoff said, referring to the campaign’s field program. “That keeps it human, but it also gives us the opportunity to really get an idea of what makes them tick.”
Fetterman said Harris doesn’t need to win rural Pennsylvania — just lose by fewer — to get his 19 electoral votes.
“Sometimes it’s not about turning these counties blue. You’re not going to change the culture of rural Pennsylvania. It’s about reaching people who are reachable,” he says. “I would be surprised if she wins by three points. She will win Pennsylvania, but I expect it might be closer.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com