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Russia is believed to be behind dozens of hybrid attacks on NATO dating back years.
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These incidents – part of a so-called shadow war – have escalated since the invasion of Ukraine.
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NATO is now stepping up efforts to respond to the attacks and monitor threats to infrastructure.
Far beyond the front lines in Ukraine, Russia is waging a different kind of war against NATO. It is a low-intensity covert conflict with serious consequences.
Moscow has long been waging a shadow war against the military alliance, but the war in Ukraine has led to an escalation of hybrid, or gray zone, attacks on NATO since the start of the conflict.
“It’s definitely escalating from where it started and where we are now,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis. who recently resigned as Lithuania’s Foreign Minister after four yearstold Business Insider. A longtime critic of Russia’s destabilizing hybrid war activities, he said Moscow’s ambition has grown and its approach has become increasingly aggressive.
The increase in gray zone attacks has raised concerns among current and former NATO and European officials that these activities could have more catastrophic consequences, especially if deterrence efforts are inadequate.
“I believe they are accelerating,” Philip Breedlove, a retired US Air Force general and former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told BI. “As long as they work and there is little or no consequence to the opponent, why wouldn’t they?”
‘There is no reason to stop’
Russia’s hybrid war tactics emerged years ago but have become significantly more common since the country launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. Since then, European countries have suffered many attacks and sabotage attributed to Moscow. These range from arson and signal jamming to assassination attempts and hacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a video conference with government members at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow in January.Alexander KAZAKOV/POOL/AFP
The U.S. Helsinki Commission, an independent government agency, has identified some 150 hybrid operations on NATO territory linked to Russia in the past three years. These acts include attacks on critical infrastructure, campaigns of violence, election interference and armed migration.
The committee said in a report released last month that Russia is waging a shadow war against NATO, in addition to its war in Ukraine, to “destabilize, unsettle and deter” the alliance and thus negatively impact support for Kiev.
But Russian activities are about more than just Ukraine. James Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, said Russia’s hybrid tactics and strategy predate the war and will continue long after its end, as Moscow views the West as an unacceptable obstacle for his great power ambitions.
“It is an inherent part of Russian strategic thinking. The military is only part of it,” Appathurai, the NATO secretary general’s chief adviser on hybrid threats, told BI. “Their goal is to achieve political victory using the full spectrum of instruments.”
Not only are hybrid attacks on the rise, but Russia is also showing an increasing willingness to risk the lives of civilians in NATO countries, Appathurai said. A mass casualty incident is one of his greatest fears.
The most recent high-profile hybrid attack took place just a few weeks ago, in late December, when several underwater cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged. Authorities suspect an oil tanker dragged its anchor across the seabed, damaging a Finnish-Estonian power line and four telecom cables.
A Ukrainian soldier fires a 122mm howitzer at Russian positions in the Zaporizhia region in January.NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Finland seized the Eagle S tanker and banned the crew from leaving its territory. The ship, which flies the flag of the Cook Islands, is believed to be part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” a collection of hundreds of ships that Moscow uses to transport oil and evade sanctions on its energy exports.
Critical undersea infrastructure, such as the underwater cables that enable massive amounts of global data transmission, are particularly vulnerable to sabotage. There have been several incidents in recent months, as well as others in the past, and military leaders have long been concerned about the threats to these lines.
James Foggo, a retired US Navy admiral who previously served as commander of Allied Joint Force Command Naples, told BI that Finland acted in defense of its sovereignty by detaining the ship accused of damaging the cables. He said responses to future attacks on critical undersea infrastructure “must be bold and have consequences for the perpetrator.”
He wasn’t alone on that point. Gray zone tactics below the threshold of armed conflict can be difficult to respond to, but there is an argument that NATO should be more aggressive in punishing the Kremlin because it is operating under the assumption that the alliance is too passive.
“We already know that Russia is taking these actions against us in hybrid space,” Breedlove said, adding that NATO must take action in response and “increase the costs to Russia or there is no reason for them to stop .”
‘They control the escalation’
In addition to the physical damage caused by some hybrid attacks, there is also a psychological element at play. Russia’s actions have stoked fears, especially among NATO’s frontline countries, which have long warned of Moscow’s malign activities, that the alliance may fail to deliver a decisive response.
A Finnish Coast Guard ship (right) monitors the Eagle S in December.Jussi Nukari/Lehtikuva/AFP
In the wake of the Eagle S incident, NATO countries have taken several steps to address hybrid attacks and threats to critical infrastructure.
The British government said earlier this month that it has deployed a British-led response system to detect potential threats to undersea infrastructure and monitor the shadow fleet. Last week, the White House announced sanctions against more than 180 ships in the fleet. (The European Union had already blacklisted some 80 ships.)
On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the start of a new operation that will see the alliance strengthen its military presence in the Baltic Sea with warships, patrol aircraft and naval drones.
Rutte told reporters: “We are also working with allies to integrate their national surveillance assets with NATO, ensuring comprehensive threat detection.”
But these increased patrols may not be enough to completely eradicate the threat, and they don’t come cheap. Foggo said bad actors are pursuing a “cost-imposing strategy” on NATO by raising the price of protecting undersea infrastructure.
Still, the sweeping new measures appear to signal a new and deeper approach from NATO as the Russian threat grows amid the fierce war in Ukraine, which is approaching the start of its fourth year.
Appathurai said “only time will tell” whether efforts such as increased patrols and sanctions against the shadow fleet will be enough to protect NATO from Russian activities. However, he emphasized that these steps are significantly more robust than what the alliance has done in the past, thanks to political will and new technology. He also said that member states would be more steadfast in their response to attacks, as Finland showed by seizing the Eagle S.
An Estonian naval ship sails in the Baltic Sea in January as part of a larger NATO presence in the region.AP Photo/Hendrik Osula
“We are satisfied that these are sufficient steps for the time being,” he said. NATO also has other efforts; Last fall, for example, it turned to special operations divers to test new protective equipment.
NATO has also strengthened its defenses against more conventional threats and strengthened its military presence in the eastern alliance members, especially in the Baltic states, which are considered the most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the hybrid campaign shows no signs of slowing down as Russia looks to exert its influence on the continent. Landsbergis warned that Moscow is “recreating the geopolitical environment” in which it operates.
“Now they are controlling the escalation in Ukraine – in the West – with everything they do,” he said. “As long as we remain quiet and quiet and timid, unwilling to react, unwilling to escalate and talk about de-escalation, this is the perfect environment for the Russians.”
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