A lot of data is taken into account when it comes to a player’s fantasy projection in a given season. Fantasy analyst Antonio Losada highlights some projections for 2023 that he believes are too low.
It took veteran rusher Joe Mixon more than a while to rework his contract with the Bengals, but both sides eventually came to a deal and the running back will lead the Cincinnati backfield for the seventh year this season.
Mixon has not failed to score at least 207 fantasy points in half PPR leagues over the past four seasons in which he has played more than six games, and that should not change in 2023, even with a Bengals team clearly showing all their qualities has. talent in the group QB/WR.
With a clear RB1 role and no opposition, as well as defensive opponents paying attention to other more capable passing options, Mixon will have everything he needs to thrive in the Cincy backfield.
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Although Mixon missed three of 17 potential games last year, he still ranked seventh in goals among running backs while catching 80% of those passes. The riveting yards may not reach RB1-level production, but the all-around skills make up for it.
This is the year you, me and everyone else have been waiting for. It’s Tony Pollard’s time in Dallas as the Cowboys’ leading rusher. Will it work? Will Pollard produce to the expectations of many fans and fantasy players who have been clamoring for this change for years?
I believe this will work.
Pollard never had a real chance to outperform the now former Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott in their four years together. Zeke scored more goals and rushing tries in all four seasons, except in 2022, when Pollard just beat him in the target division.
That said, on the basis of odds, Pollard beat Elliott all four years, which speaks volumes about who was the most valuable player and what might come Pollard’s path. After beating Zeke for the RB1 role in the production last season as he finished 2022 with more fantasy points than his predecessor, Pollard has now established himself as the RB1 in the pecking order with Elliott of Dallas.
If nothing else changes compared to the last few campaigns – other than Pollard touches more than 50 times by carrying the ball more often – that would be enough to see him outperform most forecasts in 2023 on his way to an RB1- finish in fantasy competitions.
It took Daniel Jones more than a few replays and games to earn his flowers, but I don’t think his talent and skills are more undeniable.
Jones made his first appearance in over 14 games last season and started last season, gaining the full confidence once and for all of a Giants offense that, simply put, was not full of great players during the Jones season. era. Jones signed a massive extension earlier this off-season, so his role and notoriety in Big Blue should only get bigger.
If you like, you can think of Jones as a species Josh Allen-light; Jones is on a slower development trajectory, but has been catching up recently. Jones finally rushed the rock in the triple digits (120 carries) for the first time in 2022 and he accumulated 708 yards for a 5.9 YPC average while scoring seven touchdowns.
The pass rates are out of the question: Jones has gone from completing 61% of his passes as a rookie to 62, 64 and over 67% last year. He’s passed for more than 2,900 passing yards three times, and while the touchdowns aren’t flashy in number (15 last year), the interceptions are usually kept at bay, limiting the downside to his game.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Jones is a legit QB1 in fantasy leagues in 2023, and even more so with a ton of new and returning juicy guns in TE Darren Waller and RB Saquon Barkley make his life easier.
In the past 11 seasons, looking at rookie quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in their first year in the NFL, only 13 players completed at least 62% of the passes they attempted – Kenny Pickett being one of those players. In NFL history, only one other rookie quarterback has done it: fellow and former Pittsburgh Steeler Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.
That list includes the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz And Russell Wilson. I’m not saying Pickett is a slot to have an above average career, but the compositions are great for the most part and while there are some more questionable names (Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield) it’s not like some of those didn’t at least perform viable.
Pickett didn’t really have a great set of guns at his disposal last year. He also missed a quarter of the season’s games, but he still had to put down some serious numbers. Pickett was also one of the top passers in the NFL throwing catchable passes (83% of them) and he also showed some ball-carrying skills, finishing the year with 237 yards on 55 attempts and scoring three touchdowns on the ground.
You would never (not for now and at least in 2023) build your fantasy team around a quarterback like Pickett given what he’s shown in his short career in the NFL, but the signs are there for him to rise every year. If Pickett can increase his passing volume while maintaining consistency and efficiency, he should destroy his current projections.
WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers — Yahoo Projection: 162.67
Betting on Diontae Johnson for the 2023 season is confidence in the veteran assembling a bounceback-style campaign. Entering his fifth season as a pro, Johnson struggled for the first time last year after improving his first few seasons in Pittsburgh from the previous year.
Although Johnson played all 17 games, the veteran receiver finished with almost as few fantasy points as he had in his rookie season. For context, he was targeted 92 times in 2019, compared to 147 last year, though production was pretty much the same. Clearly something was wrong.
Johnson’s biggest problem last year was turning opportunities into real profits. He caught 86 passes after hauling in 88 and 107 in the previous two seasons, but failed to break the 900-yard barrier during those receptions. not scoring a single touchdown.
I wouldn’t recommend drafting players solely on touchdowns (regardless of position), but there’s no denying that not scoring a single touchdown all season was kind of odd. That should change in 2023.
Yahoo is projecting Johnson to score 4 TDs, and while that’s fair, I’d bet on the over and also give him over 900 yards in 2023 as I’m also projecting a jump in production by quarterback Kenny Pickett.
There’s little doubt about who the 49ers’ best pass catcher is, regardless of who ends up throwing the ball to him: That’s TE George Kittel. However, aside from him, there is an interesting debate going on between the team’s two main wide receivers, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.
Samuel has been considered the better player for some time, but that could change in 2023 – if it hasn’t already. Aiyuk has matched or surpassed Samuel’s production by chance (taking rushing tries and goals into account) over the past three seasons and since he entered the league.
Aiyuk is having his best season, having played 17 games in back-to-back seasons and has topped Samuel’s production per game for the second time in the two’s careers since sharing the field (2020+).
While Samuel has produced from both the backfield and wide, Aiyuk is a through and through receiver. In fact, Samuel can be considered a rusher masquerading as a wide receiver (he’s all about after-the-catch production), while Aiyuk has proven better at getting more yards per route, catching balls in the red zone and the vertical spreading of the field.
The projections of the two main 49ers wide receivers couldn’t be much closer, but 2023 could easily be the year Aiyuk finally jumps above Deebo in the pecking order.
