HomeTop StoriesStudy warns of growing economic risks for Germany's export industry

Study warns of growing economic risks for Germany’s export industry

A trailer from logistics company DB Schenker is loaded onto a train at the seaport together with other trailers. Politically uncertain times bode poorly for Germany’s export-dependent economy and a study recommends that companies adjust their strategies. Jens Buttner/dpa

Politically uncertain times bode poorly for Germany’s export-dependent economy and a study recommends that companies adjust their strategies.

According to the Prognos Institute, an economic research and consultancy firm, Germany’s export industry should prepare for a permanent weakening of globalization.

A revitalization of multilateral global economic policy cooperation is unlikely, the consultancy’s foreign trade experts write.

“Europe and especially Germany have benefited from globalization and the prevailing economic order for decades. However, at this point, it appears that the signs for cross-border cooperation point to stagnation at best,” the company wrote in a statement announcing the investigation. .

A partial reversal of economic globalization is a realistic scenario, experts say.

The risks and potential consequential damage for companies and economies in Europe are enormous, especially for Germany. The institute estimates that around a third of Germany’s added value is currently exported.

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In view of growing geopolitical tensions, the authors point out that although the rest of the European Union is the main sales market, dependence on China for individual products such as laptops is very high.

The study commissioned by the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw) cites the decline in exports to Russia since the attack on Ukraine in 2022 as a warning example.

However, Prognos estimates that a complete decoupling of the German economy from China and other potentially risky locations would lead to the loss of a large part of the current sales and purchasing markets in the short term.

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