Welcome to the Fantasy Vibe Check, your place to vent about the highs, lows, and headaches of the NBA and fantasy basketball.
Check out who I’m vibing with, and let me know in the comments or @DanTitus what reminds you of fantasy basketball in some way.
😵💫 I’m confused about Tyrese Haliburton’s home/away split
Let’s talk about a consensus first-round draft pick who is struggling to live up to expectations in the first month of the season. I have answered many questions about whether Haliburton is a buy low, one to trade, or a hold position. I have him on the list too, and I can say I’m holding onto brighter days because while he’s been inconsistent, there have been plenty of times where he’s looked like a first-round talent.
However, I don’t understand what’s going on with Haliburton’s success at home versus on the road this season. Take a look at the major differences between these scenarios:
-
8 home games: 22.5 points, 9.4 assists, 46.3 FG%, 43.0% 3PT, .617 TS%
-
10 away games: 12.5 points, 8.3 assists, 31.8 FG%, 22.7% 3PT, .435 TS%
Clearly there is something wrong with his scoring and efficiency numbers dropping so drastically when he is away from the Fieldhouse arena. Haliburton was visibly frustrated after the Bucks game on November 22:
There are rumors that he may still be dealing with lingering issues from last season, but he is clocking 34 minutes per night and has played in every game this year. So whether that’s the case or not, he’s happy to play through it. He is fourth in the league in touches per game, and top 10 in assists and steals. He is hooping despite his troubles on the road. Still, fantasy managers must decide whether it’s worth walking away, selling or buying low. I can argue all three, but considering he just finished dropping a Hali-esque 34 points (12-23 FG, 9-18 3PT, 1-1 FT) with 13 dimes and three steals on Monday night, I’ll hold or buy it after this next home stand to get a better price. He’s figuring it out.
🤔 I wonder if the Pistons will stick with a frontcourt timeshare
Speaking specifically about Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, Duren started every game he was in this season, but Pistons HC JB Bickerstaff wasn’t shy about giving Stewart a handful of minutes because of his defense and three-point shooting.
I’m not saying Stewart is good at shooting them, but he’ll at least hoist them. Stretching the floor is important these days, so it’s another reason to spell Duren. However, it’s time to recognize that Beef Stew isn’t going away. Duren’s counting stats are all down. Duren’s block and assist percentages are up, but the decline in minutes, shot volume and usage have soured his fantasy value, and I would be looking to sell.
Taking Monday’s game against the Raptors as an example, Duren put up strong numbers, scoring 13 points with 12 boards, four assists and four blocks in 25 minutes. Stewart finished with nine points (3-6 FG, 3-3 FT), seven boards, two dimes, a steal and three blocks in 23 minutes. Beyond the stats, Stewart’s stamp was all over the game, helping to mount a comeback and make plays in critical time over Duren — an important factor in assessing the significance of Stewart’s role. The Pistons won that game through Jaden Ivey, but Stewart’s hustle and grit impacted the game beyond the box score. That’s why I think we should be concerned about owning Duren stock.
Look at the splits for the two centers this year:
Jalen Duren
-
Minutes: 24.8
-
Points: 8.9
-
Rebounds: 10.1
-
Assists: 2.5
-
Steals: 0.3
-
Blocks: 1.2
-
Actual withdrawal rate (TS%): 71.3%
-
Free throw percentage (FT%): 69.7%
-
3-point percentage (3P%): 0.0%
-
Plus/minus: -43
Isaiah Stewart
-
Minutes: 22.3
-
Points: 6.9
-
Rebounds: 6.9
-
Assists: 2.1
-
Steals: 0.6
-
Blocks: 1.6
-
Actual withdrawal rate (TS%): 60.0%
-
Free throw percentage (FT%): 86.2%
-
3-point percentage (3P%): 30.8%
-
Plus/minus: +9
Stewart has had a bigger impact per minute in fantasy and with his upside in shares and efficiency, he should be slotted into more leagues than he currently is. Stewart is 24% ranked in 9-cat leagues and ranked 103rd on Tuesday. Alternatively, Duren ranks 182nd with a 96% roster score. The Pistons are 8-11, but the East is terrible, so they’re looking for a play-in spot. It’s great to see them compete and win.
They need Beef Stew as much as Duren does to keep that going. The margin between the two continues to shrink game over game, so if Stewart is around on waivers, make that move. If you have Duren, I would try to find a deal after stringing together a few double-doubles.
😡 I’m mad because I hate Jabari Smith Jr. must drop.
I’ve given more than enough time to lock Smith into my lineup to endure the rollercoaster of inconsistency any longer. Despite starting all 18 games, he ranks 149th in 9-cat leagues and 161st in points leagues, while his career career lows in minutes, usage, points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks – five categories !
That’s far from ideal, and with his shot volume declining and Tari Eason playing some of the best two-way basketball in the league, Smith’s workload and prospects look good. Smith’s advantage was his ability to hit 3s, rebound and swat shots. He will continue to get minutes in the high 20s, but with the Rockets having a lot of depth and Smith playing worse than last year, there isn’t much point in keeping him in fantasy.
