(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicked off Thursday night with a dinner packed with central bankers, economists and reporters from around the world. Here’s what to expect from the three-day conference:
Most read from Bloomberg
For investors and Fed watchers, the keynote speech by Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday at 10 a.m. New York time will draw the most interest.
With the Fed poised to cut borrowing costs from more than two-decade highs, Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinized for signals about the timing, size and speed of rate cuts. Any comments that offer insight into his view of the labor market and how risks of further weakness relate to inflation concerns will also be scrutinized.
Investors are pricing in a quarter-percentage point rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting, but futures markets are expecting a cut of nearly a full percentage point by the end of the year.
While no regional bank presidents or other Fed officials are scheduled to speak on the main program, many will be present and will conduct interviews with the media. Raphael Bostic of Atlanta, Patrick Harker of Philadelphia and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago are all scheduled to appear on Bloomberg Television on Friday.
Beth Hammack, who officially took over as head of the Cleveland Fed earlier this week, will also join her new colleagues at the event. She is expected to vote for the first time at next month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. Eastern time on Friday. It will be his first address since Aug. 1, when the Bank of England cut its benchmark lending rate for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Investors expecting more cuts later this year will be watching for his reading of slightly cooler-than-expected inflation data as well as recent employment numbers.
Saturday’s panel discussion, which focuses on reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy, will feature the views of central bankers from around the world. Brazil’s Roberto Campos Neto will be joined by Ida Wolden Bache of Norges Bank and Philip Lane of the European Central Bank at 12:25 Eastern time.
Other attendees include Portugal’s Mario Centeno, Finland’s Olli Rehn, Austria’s Robert Holzmann, Netherlands’ Klaas Knot, Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch, Chile’s Rosanna Costa and Canada’s Tiff Macklem. Indermit Gill of the World Bank, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas of the International Monetary Fund and Jared Bernstein, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, are also in attendance.
Panels and documents
During the conference, economists will also present four research papers.
First up is Gauti Eggertsson of Brown University, who will present a paper on Friday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time examining the determinants of inflation.
At 11:55 am, Hanno Lustig of Stanford University will present his paper on the implications of fiscal shocks for monetary policy.
Also on Friday, Anil Kashyap of the University of Chicago, Eric Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, and Patricia Mosser of Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs will discuss financial markets and monetary policy transmission at 12:55 p.m.
In Saturday’s first article, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time, Carolin Pflueger of the University of Chicago delves into both transmission and changing perceptions of policy. At 11:00 a.m., Philipp Schnabl of New York University discusses the role of balance sheet in monetary policy and the lessons learned.
–With assistance from Mark Schroers, Reed Landberg, Michael McKee, and Edward Dufner.
Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg LP
