As the Baltimore Ravens suffered their fifth loss of the season, a familiar voice answered questions in the locker room.
NFL kickers don’t always meet with reporters after games. They are not always asked. Their impact is often overlooked.
But for the seventh time this season, including in all five of the Ravens’ losses, five-time All-Pro Justin Tucker’s kick was an error.
He didn’t just miss once or twice. For the first time in 208 career games, Tucker missed three times.
“I hate that I’ve had to have the same conversation over the course of this season,” Tucker said after the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 win in Baltimore. “But that comes with the territory in this job description: the kicks are good or they are not. And today I didn’t do a good enough job helping our team win the football game.
“I feel like I cost us this one.”
In a simplified vacuum without context, Tucker’s calculations are correct. He missed two of his four field goal attempts and one of his two extra-point attempts. The missed kicks, if made, would have increased the Ravens’ score by seven in a game they lost by five.
Tucker, his teammates and his coaches know that explaining their loss isn’t nearly that simple. Tucker did not yield more than 100 scrimmage yards for Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, nor did he convert just 6 of 15 third-down attempts while going more than 45 game minutes between touchdowns.
“He’s still the GOAT,” Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “We should have put more points on the board and not even put Tuck in situations like this.
‘Yes, I have confidence [in him].”
Trust is easy to defend. Tucker’s resume is the blueprint for NFL frog dreams and Hall of Fame guarantees. He’s saved the Ravens hundreds of times in thirteen years. But with Tucker’s struggles reaching a new low, the Ravens can’t simply gloss over the 10 kicks he’s missed in 13 games.
Past performance is informative, but not predictive. There is a psychological element to kicking that the team must honestly take into account.
Through that lens, the Ravens have to ask themselves: Can they trust Tucker during their final four regular season games and the playoffs? From what distances should they trot Tucker, and how much insurance do they need?
What Ravens should keep in mind for Justin Tucker’s next steps
Like Tucker, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh deserves the benefit of the doubt with this decision. He’s not just a 17-year head coach with a Super Bowl title to his name and a career winning percentage of 61.7.
Harbaugh is also the rare NFL head coach who never coordinated the offense or defense. Instead, he cut his teeth as a special teams coordinator, overseeing the Eagles’ special teams for nine seasons. Harbaugh knows what goes into coaching a kicker – and it’s fair to assume he knows more than he let on during his post-game media conference.
What did he see in Tucker’s attack and his operation?
“I just saw the misses,” Harbaugh said. “I mean, we’re going back to all that stuff and trying to figure it out. … He is absolutely capable of making every kick.”
Tucker’s final outing wasn’t all misses.
Against the Eagles, Tucker made a 34-yard field goal in the first quarter and made a 50-yard field goal just before halftime. With three seconds left in the game, Tucker made his extra point attempt to bring the Ravens within five points of Philadelphia.
As remarkable as the distance and success of his three brands are the moments when he created them all. Tucker did not miss indefinitely after his errant kicks. He missed the extra-point attempt in the first quarter and then recovered with the 50-yarder. Tucker missed numbers 47 and 53 in the third quarter, but scored his extra point attempt at the end of the game.
That pattern mirrored Tucker’s performance throughout the season. He has made all ten of his field goal attempts under 40 yards, compared to 9 of 17 from 40-plus. He has now made 42 of 44 extra-point attempts.
The Ravens’ analytical staff will not eliminate kicks made when analyzing the probabilistic outcomes of each in-game decision.
Jackson said his confidence in his kicker stems in part from Tucker’s successful previous game, when he hit three extra point attempts and a 45-yard field goal without errors in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh similarly pointed to Tucker’s established arsenal of skills.
“I just think if you look at Justin Tucker’s history, you would have to say he’s capable of doing that,” Harbaugh said. “We need him to make those kicks. No one wants to make those kickers more than Justin, I promise.
“He’ll be the first to tell you to make as many kicks as possible.”
A possible compromise for Tucker, Ravens
Harbaugh is right when he says Tucker seems physically and psychologically capable of making a lot of kicks. His three goals on Sunday, including from 50, do not indicate a devastating injury or debilitating yips that completely negate his strength or focus.
Tucker spoke with poise and responsibility Sunday night about the need to consider hashes and technique. He said his miss to the right reflected more of an inaccurate attack than compensation for a previous miss, and that he knows not to dwell too deeply on the cost of his misses at the expense of tightening his preparation.
“It’s pretty raw for me emotionally,” Tucker said. “Every time we lose, especially for me, as my performance today just wasn’t up to our standards, it’s crushing. But in the end, my feelings don’t matter much.
“The bottom line is, get back to work and do everything you can to help this football team get on the right track.”
What will help the Ravens most should be the guiding factor for Harbaugh and Ravens brass — even if their emotions and rich history with Tucker are fighting to drive decisions.
Could the Ravens reach a point where they have to reconsider punts over 40 yards? They’re not necessarily there yet, but during the bye week they’ve now reached, they’ll need to determine a formula that will require them to adjust their decision-making to reflect their kicker’s current performance rather than his past performance. They should also work out kickers, in case Tucker’s accuracy declines further.
It is still proven that Tucker makes both short and long kicks.
But the Ravens need to think long and hard about their three losses by a margin smaller than the value of Tucker’s missed kicks.
Two weeks ago, Tucker missed from 47 and 50 in what ended up being a two-point loss to the now AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens’ Week 2 upset loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was also just three points — and also included a 53 miss.
It is not yet time to sound the alarm or panic. But the Ravens need to put themselves on notice. And during the coming days of a less emotionally charged bye week, create a framework that will prepare the team for all outcomes.
On Sunday, Harbaugh hinted at where that analysis has led so far.
“We worked through it,” he said. “You work through it with every player. Everything you’re fighting against is trying to help guys be successful. We will.
“If you’re asking, are we going to continue with Justin Tucker? I don’t really plan to do that right now. I don’t think that would be wise.”
