HomePoliticsThis is what the Paris climate agreement does and does not do

This is what the Paris climate agreement does and does not do

WASHINGTON (AP) — The 2015 Paris climate accord is not the bogeyman punishing the United States that critics like President Donald Trump claim. But it hasn’t completely saved the world from overheating either.

The Paris Agreement is a largely voluntary climate pact, originally written in a way that would both attempt to reduce global warming and weather the changing political winds in the United States.

During his first hours as president, Trump began the years-long process of withdrawing from the pact. It’s the second time he’s done it — then-President Joe Biden had the U.S. rejoin on his second day in office.

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Once the withdrawal takes effect next year, the United States will join Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only United Nations countries not part of the deal.

The American withdrawal, although expected, provoked strong reactions from around the world. That’s because the United States has historically been responsible for the majority of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, has been a leader in international climate negotiations and is the world’s largest producer of the fossil fuels that cause the problem in the first place.

When the agreement was signed on December 12, 2014then-President Barack Obama called it “the best chance to save the only planet we have.”

What is the Paris Agreement?

The main goal is to prevent global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times in the long term, if not well below 2 degrees Celsius ( 3.6 degrees), by reducing emissions of coal, oil and other greenhouse gases. gas.

“The Paris Agreement is a framework, not a standalone solution,” said Mohamed Adow, founder of PowerShift Africa and a veteran observer of the climate negotiations. “Tackling climate change is not a pass-or-fail scenario. The Paris Agreement was never a solution in itself, but merely a structure within which countries could take action. And that is largely what countries do.”

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It is a pact that is part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which launched in 1992 with the Earth Summit in Rio. Technically, the Paris Agreement itself is not a treaty, so America’s approval of it did not require approval from the US Senate.

Is it mandatory?

It works as a binding but voluntary program. Every five years, countries must submit a goal or plan for what they will do about heat-trapping emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other gases. And those targets – called National Determined Contributions or NDCs – should become more ambitious every five years, says Cambridge University climate negotiations historian Joanna Depledge.

The last five-year commitments expire next month. Biden last month introduced a plan for the United States to cut emissions by two-thirds from 2005 levels by 2035. Countries can make their emissions targets less ambitious.

“The countries themselves” decide what’s in those targets, with no penalty for countries that miss targets, Depledge said.

Every two years, countries must report how much greenhouse gases they emit.

The pact also says that rich countries, such as the United States, must help poor countries decarbonize their economies, adapt to the impacts of climate change and, most recently, take some responsibility for the damage caused by climate change is being caused.

Last year, international negotiations set a target for rich countries to contribute $300 billion annually to help poor countries deal with climate change. The United States disputes that the $300 billion target is legally binding, Depledge said.

How much does it cost the US?

No industrialized country will be allocated a share of the $300 billion.

Historically, the United States has been criticized for providing less than its share of global climate financial aid, given the United States’ history as a major climate polluter and as the world’s largest economic power.

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“There is no formal agreement on how much the US should provide. However, our work on Fair Shares – based on historical US emissions and ability to pay – shows that the US contribution should be $44.6 billion per year,” said Mercy Corps climate leader Debbie Hillier in a statement e-mail.

Last year, Biden announced that US climate aid to poor countries would amount to up to $11 billion per year.

How did it originate?

The 1998 Kyoto Protocol – which Al Gore and the Clinton administration helped draft – called for mandatory emissions cuts and was rejected by non-binding votes in the US Senate. Then George W. Bush withdrew America from the deal.

That ultimately led to an agreement being drafted in Paris in a way that did not require U.S. Senate approval and was not mandatory. A 2014 bilateral agreement between the United States and China paved the way for the Paris agreement.

“One of the main reasons that countries are not legally required to actually meet the emissions reduction pledges they made under the Paris Agreement is because the Obama administration has indicated that with increased political polarization around climate change in the twenty years since the Earth Summit in Rio It would have been a challenge to get 67 votes in support of the agreement in the US Senate,” says veteran climate analyst Alden Meyer of the European think tank E3G.

Did it work?

Last year, Earth temporarily exceeded the Paris primary threshold of 1.5 degrees, several global monitoring groups said. And while the 1.5 degree goal is about a 20-year average, the vast majority of scientists say the world will eventually likely cross the 1.5 degree mark for good. Long-term warming is now 1.3 degrees above pre-industrial times.

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In 2015, Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists, said the world was on track to warm 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era. Now the same group has the world on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit).

Experts call it a partial success and say negotiators in Paris never thought the deal alone would be enough.

Mercy Corps’ Hillier said that while the reduced warming projections are “far from sufficient, it shows that the collective commitments under the Paris Agreement have made a difference.”

What does American withdrawal mean?

Once withdrawn, the US can attend the negotiations but not be part of the decision-making.

There is little immediate impact on U.S. domestic climate policy, but “the decision could undermine U.S. credibility in climate diplomacy, likely reducing its influence on global environmental policy,” said Scott Segal, a lawyer from Washington who represents energy interests, including fossil fuel companies.

Several experts say the United States will miss out on a trillion-dollar-plus renewable energy boom, leaving other countries like China to rule the green economy.

“It’s more likely that the world will warm a little more,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics and scientist. “The more the world warms, the sooner we will experience more extreme weather events, such as floods, extreme hurricanes, fire, weather, drought and heat. The US will not be exempt from such events.”

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Science writer Seth Borenstein reported live from the 2015 Paris Agreement. Follow him on @borenbears

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Read more about AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental reporting receives funding from several private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s Standards for Working with Charities, a list of supporters, and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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