WASHINGTON (AP) — One of them is the longest-serving woman in congressional history. The other is dean of the Republican delegation from California and chairman of a subcommittee responsible for Pentagon spending. Together, they have more than seven decades of experience serving in Congress.
And both are engaged in what could be the battle of their political lives.
The slate of competitive House races in next month’s elections is filled with freshmen and two-term representatives hoping to survive for another term so they can build their credentials and gain some seniority for plum committee assignments.
Reps. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Ken Calvert, R-California, are the opposite of that.
Kaptur was first sworn in in 1983. President Ronald Reagan was halfway through his first term. Calvert came to power in 1993, the year Bill Clinton became president.
The two have often cruised to victory in previous congressional races, but have seen their districts redrawn to become more competitive after the last decennial census. Both overcome that change in the 2022 midterm elections. However, the narrowness of these victories leaves both parties pouring millions of dollars into the two races, the outcomes of which will help determine which party will control the House of Representatives next year.
A Kaptur loss could be a sign of Republican gains in Rust Belt communities. Meanwhile, a Calvert loss could spell trouble for Republicans in California, where Democrats in the House of Representatives are looking to regain the majority by focusing heavily on a state they already dominate. About a fifth of this year’s most competitive races will take place in California.
Kaptur and Calvert have both declined invitations to debates from local media, while their challengers accepted them.
KAPTURS CHALLENGE
Kaptur represents Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, centered on Toledo. Her mother served on the organizing committee of a union at a spark plug factory in Toledo, and Kaptur has maintained close ties to unions throughout her career.
She was strongly opposed to the 1990s trade deal with Canada and Mexico that was ratified under Clinton, an agreement that would put Republican Donald Trump at the center of his successful bid to become president in 2016.
“She has always had strong support from the union. That has been the key to winning all the different versions of Ohio 9,” said Sam Nelson, associate professor of political science and public administration at the University of Toledo.
But the Ohio Legislature, under Republican control, expanded the district’s boundaries to include more rural communities. It went from a comfortably Democratic district to one that sided with Trump by about 3 percentage points. It wasn’t the first time state lawmakers used redistricting to make things harder for her, putting Kaptur in a 2012 primary with fellow Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich where she prevailed.
Kaptur is running against Republican candidate Derek Merrin, a member of the Ohio House of Representatives. A staunch conservative, he lost a bid to become Speaker of the House of Representatives last year, when 22 House Republicans joined with 32 Democrats in the House to challenge a Republican Party rival for to support the post.
“He comes from a much stronger position and is much more capable of getting national money to support his campaign, support from people like Speaker of the House Mike Johnson,” Nelson said as he compared Merrin to previous Kaptur opponents .
Merrin’s campaign has raised about $1.3 million and had about $431,000 in cash available at the end of September. Kaptur raised about $4.2 million and had about $1.7 million in cash on hand, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Outside groups could reduce Kaptur’s financial advantage. Republican groups plan to spend about $2.3 million on campaign ads in the coming weeks, most of which will come from a super PAC called the Congressional Leader Fund. Democratic groups plan to spend about $2 million. This is reported by the media tracking company AdImpact.
CAVERTS CHALLENGE
Calvert represents California’s 41st congressional district. He has been on the path to re-election for a number of cycles, but has also won some close races. His opponent is Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor whose cases included some of the people who attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.
It’s a rematch of the 2022 race, in which Calvert won by about 11,000 votes. Midterm elections often benefit candidates from the party that does not control the White House. Democrats are looking to boost their turnout in a presidential election in a district roughly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats.
Calvert has raised about $7.2 million this election cycle and had about $3.6 million in cash on hand at the end of September, FEC data show. Rollins has raised about $10.7 million this cycle and had about $3.9 million in cash on hand at the end of September. It’s unusual for a challenger to outrank an established player, especially one as established as Calvert.
Outside groups are also making their presence felt in the high-priced advertising market in the Los Angeles area. Democratic groups and the Rollins campaign have earmarked about $6.9 million in ad buys as of Thursday, according to AdImpact. Republican groups and the Calvert campaign had set aside about $5.8 million in ad time.
In a rare campaign visit to California on Saturday, Republican candidate Donald Trump spoke near the precinct, telling the crowd that “everyone needs to get out and vote for Ken.” Calvert also spoke at the meeting, appealing to voters concerned about the cost of living and crime.
Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at California State University-Long Beach, said the addition of Palm Springs, with its large LGBTQ population, to Calvert’s district has dramatically changed the political dynamic. He expects an exciting battle, just like in 2022.
“Can Calvert bring his old district, the people he knows, against this army of Palm Springs people?” Lesenyie said. “I think it comes down to mobilization. Maybe that last run for Rollins gave him something to organize and push him over the finish line.
CAMPAIGN THEMES
In the California race, Rollins billed himself in one ad as a prosecutor taking on international criminal gangs to “secure our border and stop the flow of fentanyl.” He also casts himself as an outsider who wants to “end corruption in both parties” by supporting legislation that would impose term limits and a ban on stock trading by lawmakers.
Calvert has appealed to voters’ concerns about high taxes and the price of gas and groceries with an ad that says, “The Democrats have made California unaffordable. Extreme liberal Will Rollins will make it worse.” He also attacks Rollins’ work as a prosecutor, calling it too lenient in ads.
In the Ohio race, several ads from Democratic groups focus on Merrin’s opposition to abortion rights. An ad from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee accuses Merrin of failing to focus on cutting costs and creating jobs: “Derek Merrin doesn’t get it. He is too obsessed with banning abortion.”
Merrin has emphasized his support for Trump’s immigration policies, including calling for building more border walls. “The border is wide open with drugs and gangs ruining our community here in Northwest Ohio, so I’m making a change,” says a voter in a Merrin ad, who emphasized that he was raised a Democrat but would vote for the Republican.
