The National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Storm Francine will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and will strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall this week.
In the 5 a.m. EDT NHC advisory for what is now being called “Potential Tropical Cyclone Six,” the system was located about 295 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 525 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
Winds with the force of a tropical storm are already reaching as far as 300 kilometers.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barra del Tordo, Mexico, to Port Mansfield, Texas.
The system is forecast to continue moving slowly from northwest to north toward the Texas and Mexico coast on Monday, but will then shift northeast and move upstream.
“The disturbance is forecast to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, approaching the Louisiana and upper Texas coastlines on Wednesday,” said Richard Pasch, NHC’s senior hurricane specialist. “The disturbance is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm today, with intensification forecast for Tuesday.”
The NHC gives a 90% chance of developing.
The forecast calls for the hurricane to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and gusts of 100 mph (160 km/h) before making landfall in an area of uncertainty running from the Gulf Coast near Galveston, Texas, to New Orleans.
On Tuesday, the winds will come ashore within the warning area. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be 4 to 8 inches, with some areas dropping as much as 12 inches along the coasts of Mexico and Texas. Southern Louisiana and Mississippi will also be affected by this on Thursday morning. This will create a risk of flash flooding and urban flooding.
There is a chance of minor flooding along the coast of Mexico in areas where onshore winds are blowing, while waves will continue to spread along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek.
The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems with the potential to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, the next names on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Gordon and Helene.
The most likely situation is a low pressure area in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, where irregular showers and thunderstorms occur.
“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while
“The system is meandering across the central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC said in its 2 a.m. tropical outlook. “By midweek, the system should begin moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.”
The NHC gives a 60% chance of developing in the next two days and a 70% chance in the next seven days.
Further east, a low pressure area lies several hundred kilometres west-southwest of Cape Verde, causing a large area of irregular showers and thunderstorms.
“In a few days, this trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave,” the NHC said. “Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form in the middle to late part of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”
According to the NHC, there is a 60% chance that the virus will develop in the next seven days.
Tropical Storm Francine marked the end of a nearly month-long hiatus between storms named Ernesto, which eventually strengthened into a hurricane after forming as a tropical storm on August 12.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
