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Trump has vowed to quickly end the war in Ukraine, but Moscow and Kiev are digging in before talks take place

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but as he prepares to take office, peace appears as elusive as ever.

Moscow and Kiev are seeking gains on the battlefield to strengthen their negotiating positions ahead of any future talks to end the three-year-old war.

Over the past year, Russian troops have slowly but steadily advanced through the Ukrainian defense line, attempting to gain full control of the four regions in the east and south that Moscow illegally annexed early in the war but never fully conquered . It is also launching waves of missiles and drones in an attempt to cripple Ukraine’s energy network and other vital infrastructure.

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Ukraine, in turn, has sought to secure and expand its invasion of Russia’s Kursk region. Kiev’s missiles and drones have also hit Russian oil facilities and other key targets important to Moscow’s war machine.

Both sides have adopted a tough negotiating stance that leaves little room for compromise.

Trump, who promised during his campaign to settle the war within 24 hours, changed that time frame earlier this month and expressed hope that peace could be negotiated in six months. His nominee for envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, says a deal could be done within 100 days.

The view from Moscow and Kiev

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Moscow is ready for talks, but stressed that any peace deal must respect “reality on the ground,” a not-so-subtle way of saying that it must take into account Russia’s land gains.

He stressed in June that Ukraine must also abandon its NATO bid and completely withdraw its troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – the regions Russia annexed in September 2022 – demands that Ukraine and the West have rejected. Moscow also wants the West to lift sanctions that have limited Moscow’s access to global markets and dealt a major blow to the Russian economy.

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Huge military spending has boosted Russia’s economic output, which grew by almost 4% last year, but the weakening ruble and labor shortages have fueled high inflation and increasingly destabilized the economy. Last week, President Joe Biden intensified the pain for Moscow by expanding sanctions on Russia’s vital energy sector, including the shadow shipping fleet used to circumvent previous restrictions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s initial “peace formula” called for Russia’s complete withdrawal from all occupied territories, but he later softened his position as Moscow continued to make gains, and he no longer makes that withdrawal a condition for talks. Zelenskyy has faced reluctance from some allies to quickly offer Kiev membership in NATO, but he is pushing for strong security guarantees from the US and other Western partners as a key element of any future peace deal.

Zelensky has emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement, not a temporary cessation of hostilities that would only allow Russia to replenish its arsenal. He has urged the deployment of Western troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Putin has also rejected a temporary ceasefire, noting that Russian forces are on the offensive and that any break in fighting would allow Ukraine to receive reinforcements and supplies.

“The Russians see that Trump is going to push for some kind of solution or some kind of settlement, and they want to grab as much as they can,” said Kurt Volker, who served as special representative for Ukraine during Trump’s first term.

The manpower shortage in Ukraine and a surprise attack

Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014. The country had the battlefield initiative for most of 2024, carrying out offensives in various parts of the more than 1,000-kilometer-long front line. Moscow’s gains in the fall were the largest since the opening phase of the invasion.

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Ukraine has faced severe labor shortages as it struggles to mobilize enough recruits to offset losses and rising desertions.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, noted that “stabilizing the front line is essential to buy time and force Moscow to reassess.” He noted that Ukraine’s mobilization numbers have fallen significantly since the summer and that “personnel numbers continued to decline, especially among infantry units holding the front lines.”

Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev noted that while Russia lacks the resources for a major breakthrough, the country has refined the tactics of small-scale, slow progress across multiple sectors.

“Moscow is betting on the physical exhaustion of the Ukrainian armed forces and the collapse of the Ukrainian state,” Poletaev recently wrote.

Kiev tried to turn its fortunes around by launching an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August, aiming to distract Moscow’s forces in eastern Ukraine and strengthen its hand in negotiations. Russia, initially taken by surprise, intensified efforts to expel the Ukrainian forces. The US, Ukraine and South Korea said North Korea has sent 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia to fight in the Kursk region.

How peace talks could evolve

Kellogg, the new administration’s nominee for Ukrainian envoy, dismissed European fears that Trump could reduce support for Kiev, saying “he’s not trying to give anything to Putin or to the Russians, he’s actually trying to save Ukraine and their sovereignty to save.”

Volker predicted that Trump would urge Putin to end hostilities and warn him that he would sharply increase pressure on Moscow if the Russian leader did not heed the demand.

If Putin refuses to stop the fighting, Volker said Trump would “turn on the tap” and allow Ukraine to borrow as much money as it wants and buy all the military equipment it wants while sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector are being tightened.

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“I think these things are aimed at getting Putin to conclude, ‘Okay, it’s time to stop,’” Volker said.

Other observers warn that Putin is unlikely to compromise on his war aims, especially now that Russian forces have the upper hand in Ukraine and the Russian economy has so far survived ongoing Western sanctions.

As Putin seeks to consolidate his gains and gain Western guarantees that Ukraine will never be invited to join NATO, Putin also wants Kiev to accept a range of language, education and cultural policies to ensure its friendliness toward Moscow.

“Putin has linked his war to this and is unlikely to back down,” Tatjana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Instead, he will likely intensify efforts.”

She added that Russia’s demand for the “demilitarization” of Ukraine not only implies deep cuts in the armed forces, but also seeks Western guarantees that the country will not rearm its ally.

“Moscow views any military support to Ukraine as inherently hostile,” she said.

Putin is unlikely to reverse his annexation of Ukraine’s four regions, a seizure already enshrined in the Russian constitution.

“Moscow believes that recognition of Russia’s new borders by Ukraine is necessary to rule out the basis for a military retaliation,” political analyst Vladimir Frolov said in a commentary.

Many analysts in Moscow are skeptical about the prospects for a peace deal, pointing to the widely divergent positions on both sides. Some say a breakdown in talks could bring Russia and the US to the brink of direct conflict if Trump decides to increase military aid to Ukraine.

“In the West they tend to think that Putin will get scared and agree to a ceasefire,” wrote Poletaev, the Moscow-based analyst. “Just the opposite. Putin will probably opt for an escalation and fight fire with fire.”

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Associated Press writer Danica Kirka in London contributed.

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