The Trump train keeps rolling.
At least according to the betting odds with former President Donald Trump pulling away from Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump, who had a large lead in July when his opponent was President Joe Biden, saw his lead evaporate after Biden dropped out, paving the way for Harris to run.
And Harris turned the tide and effectively took over Trump in September. The day of the vice presidential debate changed the situation and since the beginning of the month Trump has been the betting favorite.
Things continue to go in his favor as Trump now has a 59 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 40.1 percent, according to realclearpolling.com betting odds.
And all major bookmakers agree.
Betonline and Point Bets have a 59-40 race in Trump’s favor. The Smarkets have a score of 56-40 in favor of Trump. Polymarket has it 58-38.
Others are even better news for Trump. He leads 60-40 at Bovada and Bwin, and at Betsson it is 61-59 in favor of Trump.
Trump and Harris’ likelihood to win each state
Trump’s odds of winning began to rise in the past two weeks as Harris’ polls fell in battleground states. The eight battleground states as defined by Real Clear Politics will account for 93 of the 538 electoral votes.
Probabilities are not potential margins of victory
Polymarket highlighted in its recent “The Oracle” newsletter that the probability that a candidate would win – expressed as a percentage – is not comparable to the percentage of votes a candidate could win in a state.
One way to look at the difference is through NFL game odds. BetMGM gives the Chicago Bears a 56% chance to beat the Washington Commanders this Sunday. The Commanders have a 49% chance of winning. That seems like a significant gap until you consider that the Bears are just 1.5-point favorites to win on BetMGM.
Likewise, Trump had a 61% chance of winning the presidential race, based on betting odds on Polymarket as of 7 a.m. EDT Thursday. But the gap in support between Harris and Trump remains largely within each poll’s margin of error, according to polls collected by Real Clear Politics.
The chance that Trump will win increases as his lead in the opinion polls increases
Do gamblers see something that pollsters don’t?
Trump’s chances increased slightly earlier this month when Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, debated Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Trump’s odds of winning rose early last week when bettors on Polymarket increased his odds of winning three battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
How winning odds and poll numbers differed between 2020 and 2024
Yet the betting odds and polls appear to be at odds between the past two elections.
In recent days, Trump’s likelihood of winning the 2024 election has approached Biden’s in 2020. During that election, however, Biden’s poll numbers were often greater than the margin of error in the polls collected by Real Clear Politics.
Gamblers are more likely to win Trump than in previous elections
While betting odds on Trump and Harris have varied significantly in recent days, they are lower than where Trump was on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his chances of winning against Biden were over 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
According to a 2004 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite has lost only twice in the month before the election in 1916 and 1948. The betting markets also failed to predict Trump’s 2016 victory.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Betting President of Smarkets, 538, Betfair and more
