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Trump thinks he can pull voters away from Biden in Democratic-heavy Philadelphia. Here’s how he plans to do it.

  • Trump will headline a rally at Temple University in deep blue Philadelphia on Saturday.

  • The former president hopes to make a breakthrough with this Biden‘s base of black voters.

  • Trump has focused his campaign message on the economy. But Biden maintains deep ties to the city.

For former President Donald Trump, few states anchor his potential path back to the White House more than Pennsylvania.

The former president lost the Keystone State to Biden by 1% in the 2020 election after narrowly winning the state in 2016 against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

And a big part of why Biden won in 2020 was his strong margins in the Philadelphia area — the city and its affluent suburbs — which offset the significant lead Trump enjoyed.

But Biden has struggled over the past year to reactivate the liberal-leaning coalition that sent him to the White House four years ago. Support among black and Hispanic voters is particularly shaky.

It’s part of why Trump will speak in Philadelphia on Saturday at Temple University. He hopes to win over voters who may not have considered him in the past and could be up for grabs in November. He will also be joined by Republican Senate nominee David McCormick of Pennsylvania, who will face veteran Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. in the fall.

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Here’s a look at how Trump plans to win over these voters and the major challenges he faces in doing so.

It’s all about the economy…

According to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry, Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate has been at 3.4% for eight consecutive months since May 2024.

That is lower than the current US unemployment rate of 4%.

But as in most national polls, Trump leads Biden when it comes to which candidate can best handle the economy. In the most recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll, conducted in late April and early May, Trump had a 12-point lead over Biden among registered voters at this point. And only 21% of respondents said the U.S. economy was “good” or “excellent,” while 78% described it as “fair” or “poor.”

Trump is banking that many Democratic-leaning voters, who view inflation and rising housing costs as major concerns, could give him a ride in Philadelphia — a city where voters gave 81% of their votes to Biden in 2020.

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In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes out of more than 6.9 million votes cast. And more than 604,000 of the ballots cast for Biden came from voters in Philadelphia. So any small move toward Trump, especially among Biden’s Black support base in the city, could have dramatic consequences for statewide results.

…but Biden’s ties to Philly run deep

There may be no city outside Delaware that Biden would rather visit than Philadelphia.

He paid a lot of attention to the City of Brotherly Love before and during his presidency – with particular attention to black voters and union workers. As a U.S. Senator from Delaware living in Wilmington, he was just miles from Pennsylvania’s largest city.

So he has a natural relationship with many elected Democrats and labor leaders. He can easily find himself among receptive audiences in the city’s numerous black churches, where a loyal base of older black voters overwhelmingly supports his bid for a second term.

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Biden has connected with younger Black voters on issues like the Gaza conflict and student loan debt relief. And many young voters are largely unaware of his work on climate issues in general. But it would take a massive electoral shift — which can often take several cycles to materialize — before Biden is in serious danger of losing much of his base in Philadelphia.

So far, many Democratic Senate candidates like Casey are outperforming their Republican challengers in crucial races across the country. It’s something the Trump campaign is sure to notice as they look to flip Pennsylvania.

Right now, the statewide race is incredibly tight. And Philadelphia is poised to once again have its say in the outcome.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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