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Russia and Ukraine struggle to deploy surprise attacks in a war with so much drone surveillance.
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But Ukraine this week carried out a shocking invasion of Russia that apparently caught the country by surprise.
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Analysts say the Russian response shows that surprise is still possible, but it will be difficult.
Analysts say Ukraine’s new incursion into Russia shows that surprises are still possible despite ubiquitous surveillance.
The Institute for the Study of War said in an update Thursday that the “lack of a coherent Russian response” to the Ukrainian advance in the southwestern Kursk region indicates it caught Russia by surprise.
That, and the significant progress Ukraine appears to have made in three days, “indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia,” the update said.
The element of surprise was a rarity during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it was noted.
Analysts have long noted that the proliferation of drones on the battlefield makes it difficult for either side to operate undetected.
“Both the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces have struggled to achieve operational surprise over the past year and a half due to the partially transparent battlefield in Ukraine,” the ISW said.
But partial transparency still leaves room for an unexpected attack.
Ukrainian troops entered Kursk on Tuesday with a brutality that contrasts with previous attacks on targets in Russia.
Previous attacks have used drones and missiles instead of ground troops.
The ISW reported Thursday that localized images and reports from Russia showed Ukraine was “advancing rapidly.”
Reference was made to several Russian military bloggers – prominent sources of war updates in the absence of a free Russian media – who said that Ukrainian troops had advanced as far as 34 kilometers into Russian territory.
There is little verified information about the advance, and Ukraine has not officially acknowledged it. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to it in his late-night speech on Thursday, when he said: “Russia has brought war to our country and it should feel what it has done.”
Russia appeared unprepared for such an attack, with officials giving conflicting information.
Dominance of drones
Ukraine was able to surprise Russia, despite the country being under constant surveillance.
During the war in Ukraine, drones are being used on a larger scale than in any other conflict.
The extensive video surveillance of the battlefield has contributed to making the war a slow and grueling process.
If you see the enemy preparing, it means that neither side has made extensive use of surprise attacks that could lead to major gains.
Instead, there is a gruelling battle, with both sides trying to suppress each other with artillery and ground attacks.
Riley Bailey, Russia analyst at ISW, told Business Insider earlier this year that Ukraine’s flat landscape and proliferation of drones prevent heavy weapons like tanks from being deployed effectively.
“A lot of mechanized maneuver warfare relies on surprise. You have to be able to move quickly and surprise your enemy,” he said.
“Everything indicates that this is not really possible along the current front line.”
Expensive Russian reconnaissance drones also allow Russia to monitor and target the presence of Ukrainian troops and equipment.
Read the original article on Business Insider
