In a bold military advance by Ukraine into Russia’s Kursk region, Kiev troops have captured dozens of villages, taken hundreds of prisoners and evacuated tens of thousands of civilians, the largest attack on the country since World War II.
After more than a week of fighting, Russian troops are still trying to drive out the invaders.
Why the Russian military seems so unprepared:
A long border, with defenders elsewhere
Russia’s Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions share a 1,160-kilometer (720-mile) border with Ukraine. That includes a 245-kilometer (152-mile) stretch in the Kursk region. That border had only token protection before Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. It has since been fortified with checkpoints on key roads and field fortifications in some places, but building solid defenses has remained a daunting task.
The most capable Russian units are fighting in eastern Ukraine, where they have been conducting offensives in several sectors, with gradual but steady gains. Moscow has used the regions to launch air and missile strikes on Ukrainian territory, but does not have sufficient ground forces there.
Due to the porous borders and shortage of manpower, there have been previous raids on Belgorod and Bryansk by shadowy groups of pro-Kiev commandos who fought alongside Ukrainian troops before withdrawing.
Russian drones, surveillance equipment and intelligence services are concentrated in eastern Ukraine, helping Kiev secretly move troops to the border under cover of dense forests.
Retired General Andrei Gurulev, a member of the lower house of the Russian parliament, criticized the army for failing to protect the border.
“Unfortunately, the group of troops that protected the border did not have their own intelligence services,” he said on a channel on his messaging app. “Nobody wants to see the truth in reports, everyone just wants to hear that everything is fine.”
The element of surprise
Ukrainian troops taking part in the raid were reportedly told of their mission only a day before it began. That secrecy was in stark contrast to last year’s counteroffensive, when Kiev openly declared its main goal was to cut off the land corridor to Crimea, which President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed in 2014. That military action failed when Ukrainian troops waded through Russian minefields and came under fire from artillery and drones.
Upon entering the Kursk region, Ukrainian troops did not encounter such obstacles.
Hardened mechanized units easily overwhelmed lightly armed Russian border guards and small infantry units made up of inexperienced conscripts. Hundreds were captured, Ukrainian officials said. The Ukrainians advanced deep into the region in several directions, meeting little resistance and sowing chaos and panic.
The operation resembled Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive, in which Ukrainian forces regained control of the northeastern Kharkiv region by taking advantage of Russia’s manpower shortage and lack of reinforcements in the field.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who led the Kharkiv operation two years ago, is now Ukraine’s top military officer. The Russian troops in Kursk are a response to General Alexander Lapin, who led Moscow’s troops in Kharkiv in 2022 and was criticized for that debacle. But his ties to Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, reportedly helped him survive and even get promoted.
Syrskyi claims that Ukrainian forces have covered 1,000 square kilometers (390 square miles) of the Kursk region. However, it is not possible to independently verify exactly what Ukrainian forces are currently in control.
“So far, the Russians have demonstrated tactical and operational shocks, resulting in a slow tactical response and allowing the Ukrainians to continue to exploit their breach of Russian defenses,” retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan said in an analysis.
Russia responds, but slowly
The Russian military command initially relied on fighter jets and helicopters to stop the attack. At least one Russian helicopter gunship was shot down and another was damaged.
At the same time, Moscow began to bring in reinforcements, which slowed down the Ukrainian advance, but failed to completely block Ukrainian maneuvers through the vast forests.
“Russia seems to do a pretty poor job of responding dynamically in a situation like this,” Carnegie Endowment military analyst Michael Kofman said in a podcast. “Russian forces do a much better job of operating with prepared defenses, fixed lines, more positional warfare.”
Kofman noted that the Russian reserves arriving in the Kursk area appeared to lack sufficient combat experience and had difficulty coordinating with each other.
In one case, a military convoy carelessly parked on the side of the road near the battlefield shortly after the attack began and was hit by Ukrainian missiles shortly afterwards.
“That’s the kind of mistake that Russian forces along the Line of Control typically don’t make,” Kofman noted.
The risks of Ukraine’s quest for a foothold
Kiev remains silent on whether it plans to gain a foothold in the Kursk region or retreat to Ukrainian territory. The former option is risky because supply lines running deep into the region would be vulnerable to Russian attacks, analysts say.
“The biggest risk is that the Ukrainians choose to try to consolidate and hold territory, thereby lengthening the front line,” said Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Ryan, the retired Australian general, warned that “the loss of a significant number of troops in this scenario also makes it a strategic and political liability.”
That would “squander the very positive strategic message generated by Ukraine’s surprise attack on Russia,” he said. Ukrainian forces could try to withdraw to a more defensible area near the border or withdraw completely into Ukraine, he said.
The invasion has boosted Ukraine’s morale and shown that the country can take the initiative and move the war to Russian territory.
“This Ukrainian operation represents a very significant effort on the part of Ukrainians to restore the status quo in the war and change the narrative about Ukraine’s prospects in this war,” Ryan said.
