Michigan stumbles into this game after taking a Week 2 beating from Texas with a dismal passing game that ranks 128th in Net YPA, 114th in EPA/dropback, and 111th in passing percentage. They’ll turn to dual-threat QB Alex Orji to get the offense going, though Michigan could be without their primary air weapon TE Colston Loveland due to injury. Their defense is once again very strong on the line, ranking 15th in rushing success rate. However, a leaky pass defense is allowing a 64% completion rate (99th) and 44% passing success rate (101st), with 17.4% of completions going for 20+ yards (92nd).
USC enters its first Big Ten conference matchup with a 2-0 record and a statement win over LSU in Week 1. The Trojan offense led by HC Lincoln Riley has once again been a strong performing unit, ranking 5th in passing percentage and 15th in EPA/Play. On the other side of the ball, new DC D’Anton Lynn has been tasked with improving a woeful USC defense that currently ranks 109th in defensive SP+. The Trojans currently rank 67th in defensive SP+ and 6th in rushing success percentage, both marked improvements. Their Pass D is still a work in progress, however, with a passing success rate of 52% (128th) and 102nd in QBR allowed.
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Game Details & How to Watch 2024 USC @ Michigan Saturday
– Date: Saturday September 21, 2024
– Time: 3:30pm EST
– Location: Michigan Stadium
– City: Ann Arbor, Michigan
– Television/Streaming: CBS
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Last Match Chances for USC @ Michigan
The latest odds from Thursday morning via BetMGM:
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Moneyline: USC -210, Michigan +170
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Distribution: USC-6 (+100)
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Total: 44 points
*opportunities thanks to BettingMGM
The market opened at USC -6.5 and while MGM is at -6, the line has seen significant swings and has dropped as low as -4.5 in some spots. The game total has dropped from 47.5 at the opener to 44 at the time of publication, indicating that the public believes Michigan can slow the pace and lean on USC with their run game to keep the game close.
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NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
“I’ve watched each of Alex Orji’s seven dropbacks this season. His throws will be well scripted and carefully chosen, especially between the 20’s where Orji will be protected from making layered or field-side throws. USC ranks 127th over the last three years with 5.4% of their rushes going for 20+ yards, so keeping pace with the speedy HC Lincoln Riley offense will be no easy task. I think Michigan can wear this game down and control USC’s offense enough to keep this game UNDER 44.5 points.”
From the trading desk on BettingMGM thanks to John Ewing: National Championship
Line movement (last week to now)
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Georgia +275 to +325
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Ohio State +375 to +350
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Alabama +1100 to +900
Highest ticket %
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State of Ohio 16.4%
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Georgia 12.0%
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Texan 10.2%
Highest handle %
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State of Ohio 17.1%
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Georgia 15.7%
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Alabama 12.8%
Biggest obligations
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State of Ohio
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Tennessee
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Alabama
Quarterback Competition for USC @ Michigan
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University of Twente: So far, things have gone well for USC in replacing former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams, as Miller Moss has led a reshaped Trojans offense to a 61% passing success rate (6th) while completing 72% of his throws. Moss’ 90.8 PFF passing grade ranks fourth nationally with a commendable 12.5% pressure-to-sack ratio and 5-to-1 big time throw-to-turnover ratio through two games. While not as fierce as the 2023 National Championship unit, Michigan’s defense is a huge leap forward in competence from Utah State and LSU. I’m eager to see how Moss handles the first hostile, Big Ten-wide away environment of his career.
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Michigan: The Davis Warren era is thankfully over for Michigan, which now turns to the quarterback everyone initially thought would win the job, Alex Orji. Orji, a specialist short-yard rushing QB in 2023, carried 14 times for 88 yards and a touchdown while not attempting a pass. He’s been used for spot work through the first three weeks of this year, dropping back seven times and completing 3 of 6 passes for 15 yards and two touchdowns in his outings. Both touchdowns came inside the 5-yard line play action passes to wide open receivers running the length of the formation for easy scores, pretty basic stuff. In the open field, Orji has looked noticeably less comfortable in the small sample size we’ve seen of him. His “solo threat” profile portends an even more run-heavy script than usual from a Wolverines offense that ranks 128th in pace of play.
Trojans and Wolverines Player News and Recent Stats
– By far the most potent weapon for the Wolverines passing attack, TE Colston Loveland’s status for the game is up for debate. Loveland leads the team with 24 targets and his 19 receptions are more than double the nine receptions of second-place WR Semaj Morgan.
– Edge Josaiah Stewart leads Michigan in pressures (7) and stops (10) while not recording a single missed tackle through the first three games. His 85th percentile PFF defensive grade leads the team, while projected first-round NFL CB Will Johnson has a modest 71st percent coverage grade, allowing a 67 percent completion percentage thus far.
– A productive weapon out of the backfield, USC RB Woody Marks has been targeted 100 times for an average of 4.5 targets per game since the 2022 season, the most among active Power Four rushers. Cal RB Jaydn Ott is a close second with 94 targets.
– Since the start of the 2022 season, USC leads the FBS in receptions of 20+ yards with 132. SMU is second with 120, while Washington is also right there with 119.
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